Is migration causing the housing shortage?

Migration affects demand. But the shortage is also driven by construction volume, interest rates, building costs and regulation. Naming a single cause is not possible in this analysis.

Why were so few homes completed in 2024–2025?

The 2022–2023 rate hikes, +34% construction cost inflation 2020→2024 and the withdrawn investment subsidy in 2022 coincided with a sharp fall in developer order books.

How does Boverket measure the housing shortage?

Via an annual survey to Sweden's 290 municipalities. Assessments are self-declared. Definitions vary across municipalities.

Are the per-capita numbers and ratios in-house calculations?

Yes. The ratio 'population growth / completed homes' is an in-house calculation and is labelled as such. It should not be read as an official housing need.

Do newly arrived residents count as one household or several?

Household formation differs across groups. People in the establishment phase often initially live overcrowded and seek their own housing later — shifting the pressure in time.

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Analysis · 3 min read

The housing shortage and the pace of migration

Sweden built 28,500 homes in 2024. Meanwhile the population grew by just over 24,000 people — the lowest growth in 20 years. Yet the housing shortage tops the political agenda. Why?

Housing and municipalitiesTrend analysisOfficial statisticsMedium confidence1993–2025

Guiding question:How have population growth, migration, housing construction and shortage developed in Sweden — and which links can actually be established?

Short version in the chapter: Housing — data and statistics

Published 2026-07-15

Quick stats

Homes completed 2024: 28,500
Population growth 2024: 24,100
Municipalities with deficit 2024: 204 of 290
Construction cost index 2020→2024: +34%

What the numbers say

According to Statistics Sweden (SCB), 28,500 new homes were completed in 2024. Boverket's June 2024 assessment projects 25,000–27,000 completions in 2025 — the lowest level since 2013.

At the same time Sweden's population grew by 24,100 people in 2024 — the lowest annual growth since 2005. Net immigration stood at roughly 5,800 people — the lowest reading in at least 20 years.

The 2015–2022 cohort drives demand

Despite low net immigration in 2023–2025, pressure remains from the cohort that arrived in 2015–2022. Around 500,000 people were granted residence permits during that period, a significant share of whom are still seeking their own housing after the establishment phase.

Boverket's 2024 housing survey reports that 204 of 290 municipalities have a housing deficit. The shortage is largest in the metropolitan regions and in medium-sized towns with a high share of foreign-born in the establishment phase.

Interest rates and construction costs explain the drop

The Riksbank rate hikes of 2022–2023 combined with construction cost inflation (SCB construction cost index +34% 2020→2024) have made condominium projects unprofitable. Developer order books have declined by 60–70% from the 2021 peak.

The government investment subsidy was phased out in 2022. Since then, rental housing production has halved.

What can we expect?

If net immigration remains 5,000–10,000 per year (as the Migration Agency's October 2025 forecast suggests) and construction stays at 25,000–30,000 per year, the deficit gradually shrinks — but only from around 2027 onwards when the 2015–2018 cohort completes its housing establishment.

The takeaway is that the housing shortage is a delayed effect of the 2015–2016 reception, not of today's immigration. Political rhetoric that conflates the two makes it harder to understand what interventions are needed.

Counter-arguments and alternative readings

Economists such as Assar Lindbeck and Klas Eklund have long pointed to rent regulation as the primary cause of the housing shortage — not the pace of migration. On that reading, price controls explain why new construction fails to match demand regardless of cohort size. Migration then only explains where the pressure concentrates (segregated areas, municipalities in the establishment phase), not why the shortage exists in the first place.

A second objection is that population growth has already slowed sharply (24,100 people in 2024) — so future construction needs should be calibrated to today's pace, not 2015–2016 figures. Boverket's 2024 scenario expects the required construction volume to fall from 60,000/year (2016 scenario) to 35,000–40,000/year at sustained low net immigration.

Method and uncertainty

Boverket's 'needs forecast' relies on assumptions about household formation (people per household) that vary across groups and over time. If the share of single-person households keeps rising (SCB trend), the need will exceed the forecast even at low population growth. If young adults stay at home longer (SCB shows +2.1 years in the age of leaving home 2010→2024), the opposite is true.

'Housing shortage' in municipal reporting is also self-declared — not an objective measurement. Some municipalities report a shortage as long as the queue for rental housing exceeds zero; others only when there is no housing for newly arrived residents.

What this does NOT say

The analysis does not show that migration is irrelevant to the housing market — the 2015–2022 cohorts drive measurable pressure in metro areas and mid-sized cities. It only shows that today's (2023–2025) net immigration cannot explain today's shortage, because the net figure is historically low.

Nor does it say anything about the quality of what is being built, about segregation, or about how housing is allocated. Those are separate questions requiring their own data.

What this shows

The analysis describes co-variation between population and housing construction. Migration affects both population size and household demand, but the shortage is also driven by supply, financing, regulation and geography.
National averages can hide local surpluses. Correlation alone does not show how much of the shortage is caused by migration — and a clear trend is not automatically causation.

Definitions

Housing shortage: Situation where supply does not match demand in price, size or location. Self-declared by municipalities in Boverket's survey (BME).
Housing deficit: Estimated gap between stock and the need to cover household preferences under stated assumptions.
Housing stock: Total existing homes in an area at a given time.
New construction / completed / started: SCB distinguishes started from completed homes — completed are those taken into use during the year.
Household and household ratio: A household = people sharing a dwelling. The household ratio (people/household) varies between groups and over time.
Net immigration: Immigration minus emigration during the year. Part of population change alongside natural increase.
Vacancy rate: Share of vacant homes in a stock. Low vacancy indicates tightness.
Public housing (allmännyttan): Municipal rentals under the public-benefit law. Rents set via collective negotiation.
Overcrowding: SCB norm 3: more than one occupant per room besides kitchen and living room.
Housing queue: System for allocating rentals, often via municipal housing agency. Wait times vary sharply by region.
Construction need: Modelled volume to meet future household formation under assumptions on population, household ratio and demolitions.
Planning readiness: Municipal adopted zoning plans permitting construction but not yet built.
Construction cost index (BKI): SCB index of contractor costs to produce multi-family housing.
Real housing investment: Housing investment deflated by price index — volume rather than value.

Method and limitations

A person does not equal a household. People per completed home is an indicator of pressure — not a direct need calculation.
Homes differ in size and location. A national figure hides that a new studio in Stockholm does not meet demand for a three-room flat there.
New construction is delivered years after planning decisions. Building reacts with a lag to interest rates, costs and demand.
Boverket's housing survey is based on municipalities' own assessments. Municipalities may apply different bases.
A housing shortage is not the same as total absence of housing. Prices are shaped by interest rates and credit rules.
The composition of migration affects household formation and ability to pay — and thereby which market segment is squeezed.
The in-house ratio 'population growth / completed homes' in charts is an in-house calculation labelled as such. It is not called 'housing need'.

Primary sources

FAQ

Is migration causing the housing shortage?: Migration affects demand. But the shortage is also driven by construction volume, interest rates, building costs and regulation. Naming a single cause is not possible in this analysis.
Why were so few homes completed in 2024–2025?: The 2022–2023 rate hikes, +34% construction cost inflation 2020→2024 and the withdrawn investment subsidy in 2022 coincided with a sharp fall in developer order books.
How does Boverket measure the housing shortage?: Via an annual survey to Sweden's 290 municipalities. Assessments are self-declared. Definitions vary across municipalities.
Are the per-capita numbers and ratios in-house calculations?: Yes. The ratio 'population growth / completed homes' is an in-house calculation and is labelled as such. It should not be read as an official housing need.
Do newly arrived residents count as one household or several?: Household formation differs across groups. People in the establishment phase often initially live overcrowded and seek their own housing later — shifting the pressure in time.

Housing — data and statistics