Analysis · 8 min read
The housing shortage and the pace of migration
Sweden built 28,500 homes in 2024. Meanwhile the population grew by just over 24,000 people — the lowest growth in 20 years. Yet the housing shortage tops the political agenda. Why?
Published 2026-07-15
What the numbers say
According to Statistics Sweden (SCB), 28,500 new homes were completed in 2024. Boverket's June 2024 assessment projects 25,000–27,000 completions in 2025 — the lowest level since 2013.
At the same time Sweden's population grew by 24,100 people in 2024 — the lowest annual growth since 2005. Net immigration stood at roughly 5,800 people — the lowest reading in at least 20 years.
The 2015–2022 cohort drives demand
Despite low net immigration in 2023–2025, pressure remains from the cohort that arrived in 2015–2022. Around 500,000 people were granted residence permits during that period, a significant share of whom are still seeking their own housing after the establishment phase.
Boverket's 2024 housing survey reports that 204 of 290 municipalities have a housing deficit. The shortage is largest in the metropolitan regions and in medium-sized towns with a high share of foreign-born in the establishment phase.
Interest rates and construction costs explain the drop
The Riksbank rate hikes of 2022–2023 combined with construction cost inflation (SCB construction cost index +34% 2020→2024) have made condominium projects unprofitable. Developer order books have declined by 60–70% from the 2021 peak.
The government investment subsidy was phased out in 2022. Since then, rental housing production has halved.
What can we expect?
If net immigration remains 5,000–10,000 per year (as the Migration Agency's October 2025 forecast suggests) and construction stays at 25,000–30,000 per year, the deficit gradually shrinks — but only from around 2027 onwards when the 2015–2018 cohort completes its housing establishment.
The takeaway is that the housing shortage is a delayed effect of the 2015–2016 reception, not of today's immigration. Political rhetoric that conflates the two makes it harder to understand what interventions are needed.