Bostadsbristen — en självförvållad kö?

What does the data show?

Objective observations — not interpretations

• Housing construction is highly cyclical. After a peak in 2017–2019 (over 60,000 housing starts/year), construction has gradually slowed — housing starts in particular fell sharply in 2022–2024 as interest rates rose and construction costs surged. Completions lag starts by 2–3 years and therefore peaked later.
• The share of multi-dwelling buildings has been stable around 60–70 % during the 2020s. Single-family construction is more interest-rate sensitive because it is normally financed by private individuals with mortgages, whereas multi-dwelling buildings are largely driven by property developers with different capital structures.
• Regional differences are large. Greater Stockholm, Greater Gothenburg and the Malmö region account for a dominant share of multi-dwelling construction. Some smaller municipalities report both housing shortage in Boverket's survey and vacant dwellings — the shortage and surplus concern different housing types, price levels or locations.
• Housing shortage is not an objective concept. Boverket's Housing Market Survey is based on municipalities' own assessment of their local situation. The number of municipalities reporting shortage has fallen since 2020 (from ~240 to ~204), but this partly reflects changed expectations rather than increased supply.
• The link between population growth and housing need is not 1:1. It is determined by household formation (how many households the growth creates), mobility, the sub-let market and overcrowding. Population growth of 100,000 people produces around 40,000–50,000 new households depending on age and family structure.

Definitions

How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover

Building permit

Municipal decision granting the right to construct a building. Regulated by the Planning and Building Act. Statistics collected by SCB via municipalities.

Housing start

The point when construction work actually begins. SCB reports 'started dwellings' based on municipal reporting.

Started dwelling

A dwelling unit in a project whose construction has begun. Sits between building permit and completion.

Completed dwelling

A dwelling that has received final approval and can be occupied. Reported with 2–3 years' lag relative to housing start.

New construction

New dwellings added to the stock through building. Distinct from 'net addition', which also includes conversions and demolitions.

Net addition

The difference between newly built and demolished dwellings plus additions through conversion. The best indicator of actual change in the stock.

Single-family house

One- and two-dwelling buildings plus row and semi-detached houses. Mainly built by private individuals with mortgages; more sensitive to interest rates and tax levels.

Multi-dwelling building

Building with three or more dwelling units. Mainly built by property developers, municipal housing companies and tenant-owner cooperatives.

Rental dwelling

Dwelling leased against ongoing rent without ownership. In Sweden, rent-setting is collectively negotiated (utility value) for most of the stock.

Tenant-owner dwelling

Share in a tenant-owner cooperative giving the right to use a specific apartment. A dominant tenure form in new construction in metropolitan areas.

Housing stock

The total number of dwellings in the country or a region at a given time. SCB estimates Sweden's stock at ~5.2 million dwellings (2024).

Demolition

Dismantling of existing dwellings. Reported via final approvals and municipal data. Demolitions are few in absolute terms compared to new construction.

Conversion

Action that changes a building's use or number of dwellings — e.g. attic to apartments or offices to housing. Provides net additions without new construction.

Detailed plan

Municipal legal plan governing development on a given piece of land. Regulates height, use and design. The process normally takes 2–5 years.

Planning readiness

The amount of land with adopted detailed plans and ready to be built on. Boverket tracks planning readiness as an indicator of future construction capacity.

Land development

Development and construction of land for housing or other use. Includes planning, infrastructure and sale of building rights.

Household

A person or group of persons regularly living and cooking together. A household normally occupies one dwelling — but overcrowding and sub-letting can break the link.

Household formation

The process by which people move out of home, form couples or separate and thus create a new household. A better demand measure than population growth.

Population growth

Annual change in the population through natural change and migration. Sweden had high population growth 2010–2022, mainly driven by immigration.

Housing need

The number of dwellings required for all households to have adequate housing. Modelled using population forecasts, household size and quality requirements.

Housing shortage

A situation where housing need exceeds available supply in a region or dwelling type. Can concern price (too expensive), location (wrong place) or size (wrong number of rooms).

Housing deficit

The gap between housing need and stock in a region. Measured by Boverket and used in needs assessments.

Housing surplus

A situation where the number of dwellings exceeds demand — common in some shrinking municipalities. Can coexist with shortage in metropolitan regions.

Vacancy rate

The share of dwellings in a landlord's stock that are empty at a given time. Low vacancy indicates a tight market; high can indicate poor location or price.

Building Cost Index (BKI)

SCB index measuring cost developments for new housing construction. Covers materials, wages and machinery but not land, design or financing.

Frequently asked questions

Short answers to what is most often discussed

What does the data show?

Objective observations — not interpretations

• The Swedish rental market is not 'regulated' in a strict sense — there is no central authority that sets rents. The utility-value system means rents are negotiated collectively between landlords (public and private) and the tenants' association, with the Rent Tribunal as an adjudicating body in disputes. The system differs from both classic rent freezes and free markets.
• Queue times vary enormously. The 8.8-year Stockholm average in 2024 hides that inner-city apartments often require 15–25 years while dwellings in outer areas are allocated after less than two years. Queue time measures allocation time for those who receive a contract — not need, not the sub-let market, not those searching through private landlords.
• Presumption rent (introduced 2006) applies to newly built rental dwellings for 15 years. Rents are set on cost recovery instead of utility-value comparison. Boverket has found that presumption rents lie 20–40 per cent above comparable utility-value rents, affecting both building incentives and accessibility.
• Research literature is divided but leans towards rents below market level producing lock-in (low mobility), black-market trading in contracts, reduced willingness to build rentals and distributional effects that often favour the already established over new entrants. Critics of that literature note that many studies are based on specific local experiments and that the Swedish context differs from e.g. New York or Berlin.
• The system's defenders (including the Swedish Union of Tenants and parts of the research community) emphasise tenure protection, stability for lower-income households, reduced risk of sudden rent increases and that the system keeps a significant share of metropolitan housing open to households that cannot compete on a free market. These aims are documented in preparatory works and evaluations.

Definitions

How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover

Rental dwelling

Housing form where the tenant pays rent for the right of use without owning the dwelling. Protected in Sweden by security of tenure under Chapter 12 of the Land Code.

First-hand contract

Direct agreement between tenant and property owner. Provides full security of tenure and the right to negotiate rent collectively or before the Rent Tribunal.

Sub-let contract

Agreement where a first-hand tenant lets the apartment on. Normally requires the landlord's or Rent Tribunal's approval and has weaker security of tenure.

Utility value

A rental object's value from the tenant's perspective — location, size, standard, service. The basis of Swedish rent-setting since 1968.

Utility-value system

Swedish rent-setting model where rents are set through collective negotiation based on utility-value comparisons. Distinct from both rent freezes and market rents.

Collective rent negotiation

Annual negotiation between landlord (public or private) and the Union of Tenants over rent levels for the landlord's entire stock. Regulated in the Rent Negotiation Act.

Presumption rent

Rent in newly built rental dwellings set on actual costs for 15 years, without utility-value comparison. Introduced in 2006 to stimulate rental construction.

Market rent

Rent freely set by supply and demand. Exists in Sweden only in some new-build contracts and agreements outside the main rule of the housing law.

Free rent-setting

Possibility for the landlord to set rent without utility-value binding or collective negotiation. Politically proposed for new construction but not generally introduced.

Rent regulation

A popular umbrella term for the Swedish rent-setting system. Strictly misleading — there is no central regulation, but a negotiation order with legal backing.

Public housing (allmännytta)

Municipally owned housing companies (Sveriges Allmännyttas members). Must be operated on a business basis since 2011 (Allbolagen).

Municipal housing company

Housing company owned or majority-owned by the municipality. Forms the core of public housing and owns around 800,000 rental dwellings in total.

Rent Tribunal (Hyresnämnden)

Court-like body that decides disputes on rents, sub-letting, exchanges and tenure protection. Eight regional tribunals in Sweden, part of the Swedish Courts.

Queue time

The time a person has been in a housing agency's queue before being allocated a dwelling. Measured as mean or median for those who receive a contract.

Housing queue

Umbrella term for systems where dwellings are allocated by registration time. The largest are in Stockholm, Gothenburg, Malmö and Uppsala.

Exchange market

Legal apartment exchange under Chapter 12 §35 of the Land Code. Requires the Rent Tribunal's approval if the landlord does not consent; must be based on 'notable reasons'.

Black-market trading

Illegal sale of first-hand contracts for financial payment. More clearly criminalised in 2019 (Penal Code 12:65 a). Dark figures large.

Unauthorised sub-letting

Sub-letting without the landlord's or Rent Tribunal's approval. May lead to forfeiture of the contract and, since 2019, also criminal sanctions.

Vacancy rate

The share of the stock that is empty. Low vacancy indicates a tight market; high can indicate poor location, price or structural over-production.

Rent level

The agreed rent per dwelling, often expressed per square metre and year. Published by Statistics Sweden, Boverket and interest organisations.

New-build rent

Rent in newly built rental dwellings — often set as presumption rent and therefore higher than older stock in the same area.

Security of tenure

The tenant's right to remain when the landlord wants to terminate the contract. Regulated in Chapter 12 of the Land Code and central to Swedish rental protection.

Reasonable rent

The rent set by the Rent Tribunal in a dispute, based on utility-value comparison with comparable apartments in the same locality.

Frequently asked questions

Short answers to what is most often discussed