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Analysis

Analysis — long-form deep dives

Data-driven essays with a clear method and traceable sources. Each card shows analysis type, data quality and period so you quickly see what the text can — and cannot — establish.

Guiding question:Which analyses and deep dives are on sverigefakta.com, which questions do they answer and which methods do they use?

What you'll find here

  • The analysis library collects long-form texts grounded in official statistics and research. They differ from the fact pages by interpreting patterns — not just reporting numbers.
  • A well-supported analysis need not prove causation. Many analyses here are descriptive or trend-based; a few use scenarios or counterfactual estimates.
  • The method markers on each card show analysis type, data sources and period. Always read the method section of the analysis before quoting a conclusion.

Crime and safety

  1. Analysis · 2 min read

    Shootings declined in 2022–2025 — incidents, deaths and revised statistics

    Question: How did shootings and deaths change2022–2025, and how were the figures revised?

    Conclusion: Incidents391→158 (−59.6%); deaths62→46 in release,43 in later table. Deaths did not halve.

    Before/afterOfficial statistics + supplementary sourcesSubstantial uncertainty2022–2025; source versions2026

    Sources: Swedish Police, Brå, Malmö University, Prosecution Authority

  2. Analysis · 2 min read

    The camera surveillance that arrived — counts2022–2025 and separate impact research

    Question: How has police camera surveillance expanded, and what do impact studies show?

    Conclusion: Expansion from 715 cameras at the start of 2022 to 3,916 at the end of 2025; impact studies concern separate outcomes.

    Trend analysisOfficial statistics + supplementary sourcesMedium confidenceCounts2022–2025; Brå review2018; rules2020/2025

    Sources: Police, IMY, Brå

  3. Analysis · 2 min read

    Antisemitic hate crimes during the Gaza war

    Question: How have reported antisemitic hate crimes developed after October 7, 2023?

    Conclusion: Brå 2025:19 records 111 reports with an identified antisemitic motive in 2022 and 217 in 2024; no annual observation for 2023 or 2025 is shown.

    Trend analysisOfficial statisticsMedium confidence2022 and 2024

    Sources: Brå — police-reported hate crime

  4. Analysis · 2 min read

    Emergency services under attack — what do sabotage offences measure?

    Question: What do reported sabotage offences show about attacks on emergency services?

    Conclusion: 600, 568 and 508 reported sabotage offences in 2020–2022, including aggravated offences. This is not all attacks or a test of sentencing effects.

    Trend analysisOfficial statisticsMedium confidence2020–2022

    Sources: Brå extraction in SOU 2024:1

  5. Analysis · 2 min read

    Overrepresentation in criminal suspicion — what Brå2021:9 shows

    Question: What does Brå2021:9 show about criminal suspicion2015–2018 for different background groups and adjustment levels?

    Conclusion: Ratios vary by offence type and adjustment level; registered suspicion is not conviction or a causal explanation.

    Cohort analysisOfficial statisticsMedium confidence2015–2018; registered2014-12-31

    Sources: Brå2021:9, figures7 and13a–c

Labour market and integration

  1. Analysis · 2 min read

    SFI, jobs and the years that passed — students, completion and work

    Question: What does SFI statistics show about participation, completion and work — and which groups are followed?

    Conclusion: Different student populations and outcomes; no verified 2015 cohort or causal SFI effect.

    Cohort analysisOfficial statistics + supplementary sourcesMedium confidence2018–2022; work2019–2021

    Sources: Skolverket2024:3

Public finances

  1. Analysis · 1 min read

    Parliament remuneration in reality — 2026 compared with the 2025 median wage

    Question: How does 2026 basic remuneration compare with the latest published 2025 median wage?

    Conclusion: 81,400 / 38,300 ≈ 2.13; different years, excluding duty supplements.

    Trend analysisOfficial statistics + supplementary sourcesHigh methodological confidenceRemuneration 2026; median wage 2025

    Sources: Parliament's remuneration board, SCB

  2. Analysis · 2 min read

    What did2015 cost? Budget outcomes and lifecycle models answer different questions

    Question: What was the actual2015 budget outcome, and what is missing for cohort lifetime net?

    Conclusion: UO8 outcome SEK18.725 billion. KI’s general model is not verified lifetime net for the2015 cohort.

    Life-cycle calculationOfficial statistics + supplementary sourcesSubstantial uncertaintyBudget2014/2015; KI2022 prices and2025 model

    Sources: Central Government Annual Report2015; KI Special Study117

Housing and municipalities

  1. Analysis · 2 min read

    The housing shortage and the pace of migration

    Question: What do population and housing additions show about housing shortage?

    Conclusion: 45,475 completed newly built homes and approximately 36,000 additional registered residents in 2024. People are not households; these counts are not housing need.

    Trend analysisOfficial statisticsMedium confidence2024

    Sources: SCB and BME2024 reproduced by the County Administrative Board

International comparisons

  1. Analysis · 1 min read

    Denmark and Sweden — asylum applications and limits of effect comparisons

    Question: What can be compared between Denmark and Sweden, and are comparable cohort outcomes missing?

    Conclusion: Application measures differ; comparable employment after5/10years remains an open question.

    International comparisonInternational comparisonMedium confidence2024–2025; retrieved2026-10-11

    Sources: Udlændingestyrelsen, Migration Agency — annual originals

Institutions and power

  1. Analysis · 7 min read

    The new matriarchy? Gender, representation and power in Sweden

    Question: What does the gender balance actually look like in education, welfare, public administration, academia and business — and does the talk of a 'matriarchy' hold?

    Conclusion: Representation differs between sectors. Shares in posts do not determine overall institutional control or the causes of decisions.

    Descriptive analysis and thesis testOfficial statistics + supplementary sourcesMedium confidence1977–2025

    Sources: UKÄ, SCB (occupational register, gender statistics), SKR, Gender Equality Agency, AllBright, Agency for Public Management

  2. Editorial analysis · 2 min read

    Empathy criticism — metaphor, research and limits of inference

    Question: What does empathy research support, and what remains debate interpretation?

    Conclusion: Selective concern has evidence in bounded studies; these sources do not test Swedish societal causality.

    Literature reviewResearch synthesisMedium confidenceStudies2014/2020; book attribution2026

    Sources: PLOS ONE, APSR, Gad Saad author website

Definitions

Analysis
Systematic interpretation of data or texts to understand patterns or mechanisms.
Descriptive statistics
Description of how data look — without explaining why.
Causal analysis
Attempt to establish cause–effect relations, usually with experimental or quasi-experimental design.
Correlation
Two variables move together. Does not say one causes the other.
Causation
A causes B. Requires more than co-variation — e.g. temporal order, mechanism and excluded alternatives.
Hypothesis
Testable assumption about a relationship.
Scenario
A calculated 'if–then' case. Not a forecast but an illustration of an assumption.
Forecast
Statement of what is expected to happen, given current trends and assumptions.
Estimate
A value computed with uncertainty — often reported with intervals.
Counterfactual outcome
What would have happened if something had not occurred. Model-based.
Sensitivity analysis
Test of how the result changes when an assumption is varied.
Cohort
A group sharing a defining trait, e.g. year of arrival.
Time series
Observations of the same variable over time.
Comparison group
Group without the intervention used to estimate a counterfactual.
Control variable
Variable held constant to isolate the effect of another.
In-house calculation
Calculation performed by the editors on open data. Assumptions are reported.
Primary source
Original source of a datum (e.g. SCB, Brå).
Secondary source
Source that cites or summarises a primary source.

Method and limitations

  • Analyses may use different definitions and periods. Always compare definitions before stacking conclusions.
  • In-house calculations depend on chosen assumptions. Change the assumptions and the result changes — this is disclosed in each analysis.
  • International comparisons can be affected by different statistical systems, collection methods and legal definitions.
  • The absence of an analysis does not mean the absence of a relationship. We do not cover everything.
  • A clear trend shows co-variation — not automatically causation. Words like 'caused' or 'effect' are used only where evidence permits.
  • Headlines and summaries do not replace the method sections. Read the method box before quoting.

Primary sources

FAQ

What is the difference between a fact page and an analysis?
The fact pages report numbers with source and definition. The analyses interpret patterns over time or across groups — and take clear responsibility for their conclusions.
Does 'analysis' mean the conclusion is proven?
No. An analysis can be well-supported without proving causation. We mark analysis type and method confidence on each card.
Why do you sometimes use in-house calculations?
When official statistics do not publish the ratio or scenario the question requires. Assumptions are always disclosed — anyone should be able to reproduce.
How are sources chosen?
We start from primary sources (SCB, Brå, Boverket etc.) and cite research where it complements. Secondary sources are used sparingly and marked.
Why is there no analysis on topic X?
Either we do not yet have sufficient material, or the topic sits in the fact bank. Absence is not a position.

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