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Analysis

Analysis — long-form deep dives

Data-driven essays with a clear method and traceable sources. Each card shows analysis type, data quality and period so you quickly see what the text can — and cannot — establish.

Guiding question:Which analyses and deep dives are on sverigefakta.com, which questions do they answer and which methods do they use?

What you'll find here

  • The analysis library collects long-form texts grounded in official statistics and research. They differ from the fact pages by interpreting patterns — not just reporting numbers.
  • A well-supported analysis need not prove causation. Many analyses here are descriptive or trend-based; a few use scenarios or counterfactual estimates.
  • The method markers on each card show analysis type, data sources and period. Always read the method section of the analysis before quoting a conclusion.

Crime and safety

  1. Analysis · 3 min read

    The shootings that stopped — and what still explodes

    Question: Which Swedish places have durably reduced gun violence, and which measures coincide?

    Conclusion: A few areas show a multi-year decline that clears a cautious 'stopped' threshold. Interventions coincide — but single causes are rarely provable.

    Before/afterResearch synthesisSubstantial uncertainty2012–2025

    Sources: Swedish Police, Brå, Malmö University, Prosecution Authority

  2. Analysis · 2 min read

    The camera surveillance that arrived — 2016–2026

    Question: How has police camera surveillance expanded, and what do impact studies show?

    Conclusion: Sharp expansion 2019–2025; impact studies show mixed results.

    Trend analysisOfficial statisticsMedium confidence2018–2025

    Sources: Police, IMY, Brå

  3. Analysis · 2 min read

    Antisemitic hate crimes during the Gaza war

    Question: How have reported antisemitic hate crimes developed after October 7, 2023?

    Conclusion: Sharp rise 2023–2024; still above prior average.

    Trend analysisOfficial statisticsMedium confidence2018–2025

    Sources: Brå, SÄPO

  4. Analysis · 2 min read

    Emergency services under attack — stones, violence and police escort

    Question: How have attacks on police, ambulance and fire services developed?

    Conclusion: Sharp increase 2015–2024; 2020 sentencing hikes have not broken the trend.

    Trend analysisOfficial statisticsMedium confidence2015–2024

    Sources: MSB, Police, SKR

  5. Analysis · 3 min read

    Overrepresentation in crime — what Brå 1996, 2005 and 2021 actually show

    Question: What do Brå's three overrepresentation studies over 25 years show?

    Conclusion: Differences persist after socioeconomic controls, but individual attribution is inadmissible.

    Cohort analysisOfficial statisticsMedium confidence1985 → 2018 (cohorts)

    Sources: Brå 1996:2, 2005:17, 2021:9, 2024:5

Labour market and integration

  1. Analysis · 2 min read

    SFI, jobs and the years that passed — a cohort analysis

    Question: What does employment look like seven years after residence permit for the 2015 refugee cohort?

    Conclusion: Employment is below 60% after seven years; self-sufficiency lower. Differences reflect several co-acting factors.

    Cohort analysisOfficial statisticsMedium confidence2015–2022

    Sources: SCB, Audit Office, Skolverket, ESO, IFAU

Public finances

  1. Analysis · 2 min read

    Parliament salaries in reality — 81,400 SEK vs the median

    Question: How do MP salaries compare to the median wage over time?

    Conclusion: The MP salary is about 2.1× the median in 2026 — lower than in 1994, higher than in 2004.

    Trend analysisOfficial statisticsHigh methodological confidence1994–2026

    Sources: Parliament's remuneration board, SCB

  2. Analysis · 3 min read

    What did 2015 cost? Lifetime net eleven years later

    Question: What is the estimated lifetime net for the 2015 asylum cohort?

    Conclusion: Estimates vary widely; outcomes are highly sensitive to employment assumptions.

    Life-cycle calculationIn-house calculationSubstantial uncertainty2015 → lifetime

    Sources: NIER, ESO, Ruist, SCB

Housing and municipalities

  1. Analysis · 3 min read

    The housing shortage and the pace of migration

    Question: How are population growth, migration, housing construction and shortage connected?

    Conclusion: Today's shortage reflects a production collapse and the 2015–2022 cohort — not the low 2024 net immigration. The relationship is co-variation, not a single cause.

    Trend analysisOfficial statisticsMedium confidence1993–2025

    Sources: SCB, Boverket (BME), Migration Agency, FI, Riksbank, NIER

International comparisons

  1. Analysis · 3 min read

    What Denmark succeeded with — the 2015 paradigm shift

    Question: Which Danish policy choices and outcomes differ from Sweden's?

    Conclusion: Lower volumes and faster labour-market requirements — but comparable outcomes hard to isolate.

    International comparisonInternational comparisonMedium confidence2001–2025

    Sources: DK Ministry of Employment, Rockwool, SCB

Institutions and power

  1. Analysis · 7 min read

    The new matriarchy? Gender, representation and power in Sweden

    Question: What does the gender balance actually look like in education, welfare, public administration, academia and business — and does the talk of a 'matriarchy' hold?

    Conclusion: Women dominate numerically in education, welfare occupations and municipal management; men dominate listed-company top posts and the professoriate. Power is divided by sector — not reversed.

    Descriptive analysis and thesis testOfficial statistics + supplementary sourcesMedium confidence1977–2025

    Sources: UKÄ, SCB (occupational register, gender statistics), SKR, Gender Equality Agency, AllBright, Agency for Public Management

  2. Analysis · 12 min read

    Suicidal empathy? When compassion replaces judgement

    Question: Does Gad Saad's thesis of ”suicidal empathy” — that compassion without consequence-testing harms society — hold when tested against research and Swedish official sources?

    Conclusion: The partiality of empathy is well documented and Swedish control failures are on record, but no study links the two. The concept works as a question, not as an explanation.

    Literature reviewResearch synthesisMedium confidence1937–2026

    Sources: Schools Inspectorate, National Audit Office, ESO, Agency for Public Management, PNAS, PLOS ONE, APSR

Definitions

Analysis
Systematic interpretation of data or texts to understand patterns or mechanisms.
Descriptive statistics
Description of how data look — without explaining why.
Causal analysis
Attempt to establish cause–effect relations, usually with experimental or quasi-experimental design.
Correlation
Two variables move together. Does not say one causes the other.
Causation
A causes B. Requires more than co-variation — e.g. temporal order, mechanism and excluded alternatives.
Hypothesis
Testable assumption about a relationship.
Scenario
A calculated 'if–then' case. Not a forecast but an illustration of an assumption.
Forecast
Statement of what is expected to happen, given current trends and assumptions.
Estimate
A value computed with uncertainty — often reported with intervals.
Counterfactual outcome
What would have happened if something had not occurred. Model-based.
Sensitivity analysis
Test of how the result changes when an assumption is varied.
Cohort
A group sharing a defining trait, e.g. year of arrival.
Time series
Observations of the same variable over time.
Comparison group
Group without the intervention used to estimate a counterfactual.
Control variable
Variable held constant to isolate the effect of another.
In-house calculation
Calculation performed by the editors on open data. Assumptions are reported.
Primary source
Original source of a datum (e.g. SCB, Brå).
Secondary source
Source that cites or summarises a primary source.

Method and limitations

  • Analyses may use different definitions and periods. Always compare definitions before stacking conclusions.
  • In-house calculations depend on chosen assumptions. Change the assumptions and the result changes — this is disclosed in each analysis.
  • International comparisons can be affected by different statistical systems, collection methods and legal definitions.
  • The absence of an analysis does not mean the absence of a relationship. We do not cover everything.
  • A clear trend shows co-variation — not automatically causation. Words like 'caused' or 'effect' are used only where evidence permits.
  • Headlines and summaries do not replace the method sections. Read the method box before quoting.

Primary sources

FAQ

What is the difference between a fact page and an analysis?
The fact pages report numbers with source and definition. The analyses interpret patterns over time or across groups — and take clear responsibility for their conclusions.
Does 'analysis' mean the conclusion is proven?
No. An analysis can be well-supported without proving causation. We mark analysis type and method confidence on each card.
Why do you sometimes use in-house calculations?
When official statistics do not publish the ratio or scenario the question requires. Assumptions are always disclosed — anyone should be able to reproduce.
How are sources chosen?
We start from primary sources (SCB, Brå, Boverket etc.) and cite research where it complements. Secondary sources are used sparingly and marked.
Why is there no analysis on topic X?
Either we do not yet have sufficient material, or the topic sits in the fact bank. Absence is not a position.

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