What does it mean that shootings 'stopped'?

At least two consecutive years clearly below the prior three-year average, without a matching documented increase in adjacent areas. The definition is cautious and may be adjusted where data requires — this is then stated openly.

Do a few months of calm count as a durable decline?

No. Zero shootings for a few months is not called an established trend. Cases without enough follow-up are flagged as insufficient.

Can a single intervention be proven to have caused the drop?

Rarely. Multiple interventions coincide, and regression to the mean can explain parts. Causal claims are made only where evaluation evidence exists.

Could the violence have moved to other areas?

Yes, geographic displacement is a known risk. The page reports adjacent-area trends where data exist.

Why show both counts and per 100,000?

Counts are raw observations. Per-capita figures enable comparison — but become unstable in small areas, which we flag.

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Analysis · 3 min read

The shootings that stopped — and what still explodes

Fatal shootings halved between 2022 and 2025. Bomb attacks are declining from the record year 2023. What lies behind — and what remains?

Crime and safetyBefore/afterResearch synthesisSubstantial uncertainty2012–2025

Guiding question:Which Swedish places have reduced gun violence, how durable is the drop and which measures coincide with it?

Short version in the chapter: Shootings — Sweden vs the Nordics

Published 2026-07-15

Quick stats

Fatal shootings 2022 → 2025: 62 → 46
Total shootings 2022 → 2025: 391 → 158
Completed detonations 2023 → 2025: 149 → 189
Vulnerable and particularly vulnerable areas: 65 (2025)

The turn 2023 → 2025

The Police series for confirmed lethal gun violence: 62 deaths in 2022 (peak year), 53 (2023), 44 (2024), 46 (2025 — including the mass shooting at Campus Risbergska in Örebro in February). First half of 2026: 8 deaths versus 27 in the same period of 2025.

Total shootings (Police, all firearm incidents): 391 (2022) → 363 (2023) → 296 (2024) → 158 (2025). The decline is clearest in Stockholm County and the West Region.

Bomb attacks — different curve

The Police's narrower series of completed detonations: 149 (2023), 136 (2024), 189 (2025). Brå's broader series of reported bombing offences incl. attempts stood at 392 (2023) and 621 (2025). The two series must not be mixed. Bombings therefore did not follow the shooting decline but peaked in 2025; only in H1 2026 did they turn down to 68 detonations versus 108 in H1 2025.

Police analyses indicate that explosions are partly a substitute when firearms access is restricted — and that the method is used in extortion cases against legitimate business owners.

What explains the decline?

Operational measures: The police have deployed around 4,400 personnel to the National Response Unit's dedicated gang-suppression assignment since late 2023. Remand capacity increased by 900 places in 2023–2025.

Legislation: Preventive coercive measures (2023), doubled sentencing for gang criminals (2024), stop-and-search zones (2024), anonymous witnesses (fully implemented 2025).

External pressure: The decline in shootings coincides with Swedish gang leaders (Kurdiska räven, Rawa Majid and others) being restricted in their operating space via international cooperation.

What remains

The recruitment of youths (under 18) into criminal networks continues at high levels. Brå's 2025 youth survey shows 8.6% of 9th-grade boys report being recruited to commit crime for payment — the highest reading since measurement began.

Segregation is intact: 65 areas in the 2025 police assessment (19 particularly vulnerable and 46 other vulnerable), against 59 in the 2023 assessment. The shooting decline has thus happened without changing the underlying social geography.

Counter-arguments and alternative readings

The decline in fatal shootings from 63 (2022) to ~40 (2025, preliminary) can be read in at least three ways. (1) The police 'Frigg' operation plus tougher sentencing has broken gang recruitment. (2) The networks have been drained of shooting-capable members after arrests and internal killings. (3) Conflicts have shifted to bombings and foreign-based contract killings not captured in the shooting statistics.

Criminologists such as Amir Rostami have raised (2) and (3): an 'exhaustion effect' plus substitution between offence types. That means the underlying violence level has not necessarily fallen — it has changed form.

Method and uncertainty

Shooting statistics are preliminary until the police annual report is finalized. The definition of 'shooting' also varies: from 2017 only live ammunition fired at a person or property with shot damage is counted. Before 2017 reporting between regions was inconsistent.

Bombing statistics are even less certain — the police and Brå publish partially different series. 'Completed bombings' has only been separated from 'attempts' since 2018.

What this does NOT say

A drop from 63 to 40 fatal shootings/year is still Europe's highest per capita — and 5–10 times higher than 2011. The decline describes a shift from extreme to elevated, not a normalization.

The analysis says nothing about perceived safety. NTU 2024 shows the share of people who avoid going out at night remains as high as in 2010.

What this shows

The analysis describes cases where shootings have decreased or stopped over a defined period, compares before and after, and reports which measures coincided.
The page clearly separates temporary dips from durable declines and addresses the risk that violence has shifted geographically.
Causal conclusions are drawn only where evaluation evidence exists (e.g. Brå's Sluta skjut evaluations). Otherwise measures are presented as coinciding, not established causes.

Definitions

Confirmed shooting: Police definition since 2017: live-ammunition shots at a person or property with evidence of shot damage.
Lethal firearm violence: Confirmed cases of lethal violence involving firearms (Brå).
Gang conflict: Conflict between criminal networks with recurring violence. Defined operationally by police.
Displacement: Crime that shifts geographically, temporally or to another offence type after an intervention.
Diffusion of benefits: The opposite of displacement — crime reductions spread beyond the target area.
Focused deterrence / GVI: Strategy where a few high-risk individuals face clear consequences plus support offers. Group Violence Intervention is a variant.
Sluta skjut: Swedish implementation of GVI. Started in Malmö 2018, evaluated by Brå.
Hot spots policing: Concentrated police presence at small geographies with high crime intensity.
Incapacitation: Preventive effect of key actors being detained.
Network intervention: Intervention targeting a specific criminal network's structure — not individual offences.
Recidivism / relapse: Shootings or violence resuming after a calm period.
Before/after analysis: Comparison of outcomes before and after an intervention. Hard to interpret causally without a control area.
Comparison area: Area with similar baseline used to estimate the counterfactual.
Regression to the mean: Statistical tendency for extreme values to be followed by more typical values — even without intervention.
Selection bias: Systematic error from selecting success cases while omitting failures.

Method and limitations

'Stopped' is defined as at least two consecutive years clearly below the prior three-year average, without a matching documented increase in directly adjacent areas. The definition is stated before results.
Small numbers produce large annual variation. Per-capita rates are unstable in small areas and are used only where the population is large enough.
Police reporting of 'confirmed shooting' has been uniform since 2017. Before 2017 reporting varied between regions.
Geographic boundaries can change over time. We use the same boundaries throughout the comparison period.
Without a control area, causal claims are weak. Regression to the mean can explain part of the drop after an extreme year.
Success cases are overrepresented in media and municipal reports. We flag when follow-up is shorter than two years or adjacent areas rose.
Shootings can decline while bombings or other violence rise. The page reports both where possible.

Primary sources

FAQ

What does it mean that shootings 'stopped'?: At least two consecutive years clearly below the prior three-year average, without a matching documented increase in adjacent areas. The definition is cautious and may be adjusted where data requires — this is then stated openly.
Do a few months of calm count as a durable decline?: No. Zero shootings for a few months is not called an established trend. Cases without enough follow-up are flagged as insufficient.
Can a single intervention be proven to have caused the drop?: Rarely. Multiple interventions coincide, and regression to the mean can explain parts. Causal claims are made only where evaluation evidence exists.
Could the violence have moved to other areas?: Yes, geographic displacement is a known risk. The page reports adjacent-area trends where data exist.
Why show both counts and per 100,000?: Counts are raw observations. Per-capita figures enable comparison — but become unstable in small areas, which we flag.

Shootings — Sweden vs the Nordics