Analysis · 2 min read
Shootings declined in 2022–2025 — incidents, deaths and revised statistics
Police-confirmed shootings fell from 391 in 2022 to 158 in 2025, about 59.6%. These are incidents, not deaths. In 2022, 62 deaths were recorded. For 2025 the news release of 5 January 2026 reported 46 deaths; the currently linked annual table reports 43. The revision is disclosed explicitly.
Guiding question:How did shootings and deaths change2022–2025, and how were the figures revised?
Short version in the chapter: Explosions 2015–2025
Published 2026-07-15
Shootings and deaths are different measures
The Police annual table for 1 January–31 December 2022 records 391 confirmed shootings, 62 deaths and 107 injured. A confirmed shooting is an incident involving a gunpowder-loaded weapon, traces or several independent witnesses; it must be non-legal and not obviously accidental.
The currently linked 2025 annual table, retrieved 11 October 2026, records 158 shootings, 43 deaths and 46 injured. Statistics are compiled manually, preliminary and subject to revision. They are not Brå’s separate confirmed lethal-violence statistics.
The dated release and later table
The original Police news release of 5 January 2026 reports 158 shootings, 46 deaths and 44 injured in 2025 and explicitly includes Campus Risbergska. These dated figures are presented as the publication state on that date, not unchanged final values.
The currently linked table reports 43 deaths and 46 injured. These extracts do not explain each change; we do not guess why. We do not produce the lower death count by independently excluding Risbergska. The news-release and table versions remain separate.
Dated source versions, not a mixed series
All values are national annual totals. The 2025 news release and later table differ.
Annual table2022
- Shootings
- 391
- Deaths
- 62
- Injured
- 107
Release5 January2026: year2025
- Shootings
- 158
- Deaths
- 46
- Injured
- 44
Annual table2025, retrieved11 October2026
- Shootings
- 158
- Deaths
- 43
- Injured
- 46
| Source version | Shootings | Deaths | Injured |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual table2022 | 391 | 62 | 107 |
| Release5 January2026: year2025 | 158 | 46 | 44 |
| Annual table2025, retrieved11 October2026 | 158 | 43 | 46 |
Calculate change for the right measure
Shootings: (158 − 391) / 391 × 100 = −59.6%, our calculation. Incidents therefore more than halved, but did not stop.
Deaths in the dated release: (46 − 62) / 62 × 100 = −25.8%. Using the currently linked table’s 43 gives −30.6%. Neither 62→46 nor 62→43 is a halving of deaths. The earlier contradictory 63→40 claims are not used.
Chart observations in a table
Sweden, full years. 391→158 incidents; not deaths. Preliminary manually compiled series.
2022
- Value
- 391
2025
- Value
- 158
| Measure and period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 391 |
| 2025 | 158 |
Explosions do not follow the same decline
The 5 January 2026 release reports 189 explosions in 2025 against 136 in 2024. These are the dated release’s preliminary figures, not a merged measure with Brå’s broader offence categories.
Police state there is no single identified cause of the increase and discuss several possible factors, including grenade availability and recruitment of young perpetrators. This is the authority’s assessment, not an effect proved by two annual totals.
What the decline can and cannot explain
In the same release, Noa head Johan Olsson assesses that arrests and prosecution in Sweden and abroad affected networks’ capacity for lethal violence. This is attributed to Police, not an isolated estimate of any particular law or intervention.
Annual statistics do not identify named individuals’ operational impact or the relative effects of legislation, policing and conflicts. Earlier unsupported staffing, detention, youth and individual claims are withdrawn from this analysis, not declared false.
What this shows
- Incidents391→158 (−59.6%); deaths62→46 in release,43 in later table. Deaths did not halve.
Method and limitations
- Sweden, full years. 391→158 incidents; not deaths. Preliminary manually compiled series.