Shootings — Sweden vs the rest of the Nordics

Since the mid-2010s Sweden has had the highest level of lethal gun violence in the Nordics and among the highest in Western Europe. Norway, Denmark and Finland have not followed the same curve.

Memory

In 2010 all four Nordic countries were at roughly the same level. By 2022 Sweden was ≈ 25× higher than Norway and Finland.

Sweden 2010

0.20

deaths /100k

Sweden 2022

1.27

Brå

The data clash

Utopia vs Reality

How to read this

“The data clash” is the gap between the utopia — the image of Sweden as one of the world's best, safest and most equal countries — and the reality in the statistics. The charts below show what the numbers actually say, not what we wish they said.

Deaths from shootings per 100,000 — Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland

Human consequence

Persona

A patrol officer in the Stockholm region.

Then

Treated shootings as rare, individual events.
Carried a service weapon; body armour was uncommon on regular patrol.
Murder investigations were rare — several years without unsolved gang homicides.

Now

Murder investigations now run continuously in parallel.
Body armour and reinforced patrols are routine in several areas.
Crime scenes involve automatic weapons, often with minors as perpetrators.

The Nordics — same metric

Same series — Sweden (red) clearly diverges from its neighbours

Method & uncertainty

Definitions

— ”Dödligt skjutvapenvåld” = dödsfall där skjutvapen använts, oavsett uppsåt. Definitionen följer Brå:s årsstatistik.
— Norge, Danmark och Finland rapporterar via SSB, Danmarks Statistik respektive Tilastokeskus, med snarlika definitioner.

Uncertainties

— Små absoluta tal i Norge och Finland gör att enskilda år kan slå procentuellt.
— Klassificering av terror- och hemvärnsfall skiljer marginellt mellan länderna.

Sources

2035

What would it take for Sweden's curve to converge back towards Norway's?

Even with a halving every single year from 2024, Sweden would not reach Norway's 2024 level until 2030.

Read the full investigation of how Sweden has changed.

Back to overview →