Shootings — Sweden vs the rest of the Nordics

What does the data show?

Objective observations — not interpretations

• Development over time: according to Brå, confirmed lethal violence with firearms rose from 30 cases (2016) to a peak of 63 (2022), then 53 (2023), 45 (2024) and 42 (2025).
• What is actually measured: Brå's 'confirmed lethal violence with firearms' counts deaths as intentional violence (excluding suicides, accidents and legal interventions). Norway: our calculation from Kripos number of victims killed with firearms (National homicide overview 2024, victims by method/weapon table) / Statistics Norway population on 1 January of the following year (table 06913). Kripos counts intentional homicides (Penal Code § 275), Brå confirmed lethal violence — related but not identical definitions. Denmark and Finland are not shown in the chart: no reconciled comparable series is available in this material.
• Reasonable comparisons: Change over time within a country. Police-recorded 'shootings' between Swedish regions within the same year.
• Comparisons that are not reasonable: comparing Police-recorded 'shootings' with foreign statistics (the measure is Swedish and is not published the same way abroad), or comparing small absolute Norwegian/Finnish year-on-year values (statistical noise).
• Reasonable conclusions: Sweden has had a unique rise in a Western European perspective 2013–2022, mainly driven by lethal gang violence. 2024–2025 show a decline; H1 2026 (−55 %) is the lowest half-year level since the Police series began in 2017.
• Conclusions that cannot be drawn: that gang violence is permanently broken (short series, H2 historically heavier), or that the 2024–2026 decline can be attributed to any single reform (multiple interacting factors).

Definitions

How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover

Lethal firearm violence (Brå)

Confirmed case of intentional lethal violence in which a firearm was used. Excludes suicides, accidents and legal interventions (e.g. fatal shots by police in the line of duty).Source: Brå — Confirmed cases of lethal violence. Published annually in March/April.

Shooting (Police)

Confirmed firearm incident in which a shot has been fired at a person, building or vehicle. Includes cases with no personal injury. The measure is operational and is not published in a comparable form in the other Nordic countries.Source: Swedish Police operational situation picture. Half-yearly + full-year.

Per 100,000 residents

Number of deaths divided by the country's population as of 31 December in the same year, multiplied by 100,000. The measure makes countries of different population sizes comparable.Source: Brå (counts), Statistics Sweden (population).

Confirmed vs reported

A confirmed case is a death-classified event where the investigation has established that the violence was intentional. Reported deaths are higher because some are later reclassified as suicides, accidents or non-lethal violence.

Nordic comparability

The Nordic countries do not publish an identical measure. Norway's Kripos reports victims of intentional homicide by weapon, which is close to Brå's measure and is shown as our own calculation per 100,000. Danish and Finnish figures are not shown. For a historical European comparison using the same source type for all countries, see Brå report 2021:8.

H1 / H2

First and second half of the year. Police shooting statistics are seasonal — H2 has historically been heavier than H1 (more shootings in summer/early autumn). Half-year comparisons are therefore always H1-vs-H1 or H2-vs-H2.

Frequently asked questions

Short answers to what is most often discussed

Related topics

Logical next steps if you want to understand the background

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• Crime — over-representation

  Brå 2021:9 and costs outside the standard net-fiscal models.