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Shootings — Sweden vs the rest of the Nordics
What happened to Sweden?

Lethal gun violence

Shootings — Sweden vs the rest of the Nordics

Since the mid-2010s Sweden has had the highest level of lethal gun violence in the Nordics and among the highest in Western Europe. Norway, Denmark and Finland have not followed the same curve. Full-year 2025 ended at 158 shootings, 46 deaths and 44 injured (including the mass shooting at Campus Risbergska in Örebro, February 2025). The first half of 2026 fell sharply: 39 shootings (vs 86 in H1 2025), 8 deaths (vs 27) and 15 injured (vs 20) — the lowest half-year level since records began in 2017.

Memory

In 2010 all four Nordic countries were at roughly the same level. At the 2022 peak Sweden was ≈ 12× higher than Norway and Finland.

Sweden 2010

0.10

deaths /100k (Brå/SCB)

Sweden 2022

0.60

63 deaths · Brå/SCB

The question this page answers

Why does Sweden have the highest lethal gun violence in the Nordics — and has the trend broken in 2025–2026?

At a glance

Key figures — the most important numbers on this page

Deaths 2025

46

Confirmed lethal gun violence (Brå)

Shootings 2025

158

Police — all firearm incidents

Deaths H1 2026

8

Police — vs 27 in H1 2025

Shootings H1 2026

39

Police — vs 86 in H1 2025 (−55 %)

Sweden 2022 peak

0.60

Deaths /100k — Brå/SCB

Gap at 2022 peak

≈12×

Sweden vs Norway/Finland

What does the data show?

Objective observations — not interpretations

  • Development over time: In 2010 Sweden was at roughly the same level as Norway, Denmark and Finland. From around 2013 Sweden pulls away rapidly. At the 2022 peak (63 deaths) Sweden was about 12× higher than Norway/Finland per 100,000 residents.
  • What is actually measured: Brå's 'confirmed lethal violence with firearms' counts deaths as intentional violence (excluding suicides, accidents and legal interventions). Nordic comparison uses the same narrow measure at SSB (NO), Statistics Denmark (DK) and Tilastokeskus (FI).
  • Reasonable comparisons: Sweden vs the Nordics and Western Europe on lethal firearm violence per 100,000. Change over time within a country. Police-recorded 'shootings' between Swedish regions within the same year.
  • Comparisons that are not reasonable: comparing Police-recorded 'shootings' with foreign statistics (the measure is Swedish and is not published the same way abroad), or comparing small absolute Norwegian/Finnish year-on-year values (statistical noise).
  • Reasonable conclusions: Sweden has had a unique rise in a Western European perspective 2013–2022, mainly driven by lethal gang violence. 2024–2025 show a decline; H1 2026 (−55 %) is the lowest half-year level since the Police series began in 2017.
  • Conclusions that cannot be drawn: that gang violence is permanently broken (short series, H2 historically heavier), that the gap with the Nordics is purely a registration artefact (Brå's measure is methodologically comparable), or that the 2024–2026 decline can be attributed to any single reform (multiple interacting factors).

Definitions

How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover

Lethal firearm violence (Brå)
Confirmed case of intentional lethal violence in which a firearm was used. Excludes suicides, accidents and legal interventions (e.g. fatal shots by police in the line of duty).Source: Brå — Confirmed cases of lethal violence. Published annually in March/April.
Shooting (Police)
Confirmed firearm incident in which a shot has been fired at a person, building or vehicle. Includes cases with no personal injury. The measure is operational and is not published in a comparable form in the other Nordic countries.Source: Swedish Police operational situation picture. Half-yearly + full-year.
Per 100,000 residents
Number of deaths divided by the country's population as of 31 December in the same year, multiplied by 100,000. The measure makes countries of different population sizes comparable.Source: SCB (SE), SSB (NO), Statistics Denmark (DK), Tilastokeskus (FI).
Confirmed vs reported
A confirmed case is a death-classified event where the investigation has established that the violence was intentional. Reported deaths are higher because some are later reclassified as suicides, accidents or non-lethal violence.
Nordic comparability
The four Nordic countries' death statistics are built on similar definitions (intentional lethal violence, firearm as principal weapon). Marginal differences exist in how terror attacks and legal interventions are classified — but they do not affect the headline level.
H1 / H2
First and second half of the year. Police shooting statistics are seasonal — H2 has historically been heavier than H1 (more shootings in summer/early autumn). Half-year comparisons are therefore always H1-vs-H1 or H2-vs-H2.

How to read this

Data in context

How to read this

The charts below show what the numbers say — not an interpretation. Where data point in different directions (e.g. stable trust but rising insecurity) we show both series rather than pick a narrative.

Deaths from shootings per 100,000 — Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland

2010–2025 · /100k · Norden

Deaths from shootings per 100,000 — Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland · /100k · 2010–2025 · Norden
ÅrNorgeDanmarkFinlandSverige
2 0100,040,090,050,1
2 0120,040,110,050,22
2 0140,060,130,050,26
2 0160,060,140,050,31
2 0180,050,160,050,43
2 0200,060,140,050,45
2 0220,050,140,050,6
2 0230,050,120,050,5
2 0240,050,110,050,42
2 0250,050,110,050,44

Source:

How to read this chart

Definition

Confirmed lethal violence with firearms (Brå's official series) per 100,000 residents. Intentional violence only — suicides, accidents and legal interventions are excluded.

Method

Brå annual series / Statistics Sweden population as of 31 December. Nordic comparison: SSB (NO), Statistics Denmark (DK), Tilastokeskus (FI) with comparable definitions. Full-year data through 2025; H1 2026 is reported separately by the Swedish Police.

What the chart shows

  • Sweden (red) pulls away from around 2013.
  • Norway/Denmark/Finland form a shared low line in practice.
  • Peak in 2022 (63 deaths), then down: 53 (2023), 44 (2024), 46 (2025).
  • H1 2026 points to a continued decline.

Limitations

  • Norway and Finland have small absolute numbers — single years swing in percentage terms.
  • Classification of terror attacks and legal interventions differs marginally between countries.
  • Shooting ≠ death. Police 'shootings' cover all firearm incidents; Brå 'lethal gun violence' covers only fatal outcomes. Do not mix the series over time.

Where research shows strong associations, they are cited. Where the evidence is uncertain or contested, this is stated. The page draws no causal conclusion beyond what the data supports.

The Nordics — same metric

Confirmed lethal gun violence per 100,000 residents. Sweden (red) diverges from its neighbours. 2025: 46 deaths in Sweden (H1 2026: 8). The gap to the Nordics is closing.

2010–2025 · /100k · Norden

Confirmed lethal gun violence per 100,000 residents. Sweden (red) diverges from its neighbours. 2025: 46 deaths in Sweden (H1 2026: 8). The gap to the Nordics is closing. · /100k · 2010–2025 · Norden
ÅrNorgeDanmarkFinlandSverige
2 0100,040,090,050,1
2 0120,040,110,050,22
2 0140,060,130,050,26
2 0160,060,140,050,31
2 0180,050,160,050,43
2 0200,060,140,050,45
2 0220,050,140,050,6
2 0230,050,120,050,5
2 0240,050,110,050,42
2 0250,050,110,050,44

Source:

Human consequence

Persona

A patrol officer in the Stockholm region.

Then

  • Treated shootings as rare, individual events.
  • Carried a service weapon; body armour was uncommon on regular patrol.
  • Murder investigations were rare — several years without unsolved gang homicides.

Now

  • Murder investigations now run continuously in parallel.
  • Body armour and reinforced patrols are routine in several areas.
  • Crime scenes involve automatic weapons, often with minors as perpetrators.

How does it look in your municipality?

Shootings are reported by police region and municipality. Open the municipality tool to see the level where you live.

Open the municipality tool →

Dataset

Confirmed lethal gun violence per 100,000 — Nordics 2003–2025

N:
92 observations
Last updated:
2026-05

Annual series SE/NO/DK/FI. Sweden = Brå. Nordics = national agencies.

Primary sources

Agencies and research institutions behind this page

5

agencies/institutions

6

reports & studies

4

primary datasets

Frequently asked questions

Short answers to what is most often discussed

Partly. The Swedish Police's 'shootings' figure covers every incident where a firearm was used — including cases with no personal injury. There is no equivalent published measure in Norway, Denmark or Finland. That is why the Nordic comparison on this page uses Brå's narrower measure, 'confirmed lethal violence with firearms', which has a direct equivalent in SSB, Statistics Denmark and Tilastokeskus.

Related topics

Logical next steps if you want to understand the background

2035

What would it take for Sweden's curve to converge back towards Norway's?

With 2024 at 44 deaths (≈0.42/100k), a year-on-year halving reaches Norway's 2024 level (≈0.05/100k) around 2027. Actual outcome: 2025 closed at 158 shootings / 46 deaths / 44 injured, and H1 2026 fell to 39 shootings / 8 deaths / 15 injured (vs 86 / 27 / 20 in H1 2025) — the lowest half-year level since records began in 2017. The actual trend is falling faster than the mechanical projection assumed.

Sources for this page

The data comes from official primary sources.

Read the full investigation of how Sweden has changed.

Back to overview →

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