NIER's published estimate – foreign-born, 2022
+6 bn SEK
+0,1 % of GDP
- Per person
- +SEK 2,700
- Population
- ~2,189,000
Statistics hub
Costs, benefits, taxes and energy — compiled from ESO, KI, ESV, SCB and Nord Pool.
What do the societal changes cost — and who pays?
11 articles · updated when underlying data changes
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New to the topic? Read in this order to build the full picture — from overview to in-depth analysis.
Key figures
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Monthly observations of central government debt (Swedish National Debt Office, measure C). Gaps in the series are shown as breaks — never interpolated.
1,278.5billion SEK
Latest observation: 30 September 2026
Source: Swedish National Debt Office, measure C (unconsolidated central government gross debt).
Monthly observations
Jan 2025 – Sept 2026
Supplement · NIER 2025 · 2022 cross-section
NIER's Special Study 117 (June 2025) reports the 2022 net contributions. 2022 was a historically favourable year.
NIER's published estimate – foreign-born, 2022
+6 bn SEK
+0,1 % of GDP
Refugee group
−22 bn SEK
−0,4 % of GDP
Other foreign-born
+28 bn SEK
+0,5 % of GDP
Native-born
−6 bn SEK
−0,1 % of GDP
Published NIER estimate
+SEK 6bn (+0.1% of GDP) is NIER's modelled, static cross-sectional estimate for 2022 within the study's boundaries — not a complete booked profit from immigration.
Method status: The method is currently under review. NIER has announced a correction to the method description but has not published a replacement total.
Method note: the total in SEK bn and the “per person” figure rest on partly different cuts of NIER's model. the method note on Employment decides →
Context: The following historical metrics remain NIER's published series and are not changed by the alternative point: −16.1 bn SEK/year. Cumulative 1983–2022: +3 bn SEK. See history → By residence permit → Total cost →
Immigration · fiscal review
Ruist and NIER measure immigration's direct flows into and out of the public purse. These four items often fall outside the headline fiscal figure.
How to read the +SEK 6bn figure
Municipal level
The state's standard grant lasts two years. After that the municipality carries income support, Swedish tuition, social services and schools on its own.
Read the review →
Crime
Brå 2021:9: the foreign-born were suspected of at least one offence in 2015–2018 2.25 times as often after age and sex (unadjusted 2.51). Police and court costs are not broken down by group.
Read the review →
Long-term
Demography, segregation, school results, dependency burden and trust — effects that build over 20–30 years and are invisible year by year.
Read the review →
Second generation
Children born in Sweden to two foreign-born parents count as Swedish-born in NIER's data — and drop out of the calculation. Brå 2021:9: suspected 3.21 times as often unadjusted, 1.96 after age and sex.
Read the review →
What do the statistics show?
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Riksgälden's monthly series on central government debt, cost and debt per capita.
Open →The ESO/Ruist method and cohort costs.
Open →Ruist versus NIER — the same person over a lifetime.
Open →Statistics Sweden on full-year equivalents receiving benefits.
Open →SKR:s kostnadsbild för kommunerna.
Open →Projektioner av kostnad och skatteintäkt.
Open →SE1–SE4 spotpriser via Nord Pool.
Open →Produktion, förbrukning och import per år.
Open →Priser, byggtakt, bostadsköer.
Open →SCB fastighetsprisindex.
Open →Sida-utbetalningar per land och år.
Open →Timeline
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Datasets
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Sources
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