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Långsiktiga välfärdskostnader
Sidan fokuserar på tid, livsfaser och generationer. Den kompletterar/totalkostnad, som förklarar metodfältet. Registerbaserad forskning och långsiktsmodeller — Ruist (ESO 2018:3), Aldén & Hammarstedt, KI Specialstudie 117, Långtidsutredningen — visar hur offentliga netton utvecklas över decennier för olika kohorter.
1980–1989
Tidigare kohorter, dominerade av arbetskraftsinvandring, hade högre sysselsättning tidigt i vistelsen. Kohortspecifika fiskala netton redovisas inte här.
1990–1999
Längre tid till sysselsättning. Ruist (ESO 2018:3) anger för flyktinggruppen som helhet – inte för denna kohort – en genomsnittlig offentligfinansiell nettokostnad över livet på 53 000–94 000 kr per person och år (modell).
2000–2015
Kohortspecifikt netto efter 15 år redovisas inte här. Stora inomkohortskillnader beroende på födelseland, utbildning och sysselsättning.
2015–
Mottagningstoppen 2015. Utfall efter 10 års vistelse kan ännu inte mätas för hela kohorten. Långsiktiga kalkyler är känsliga för sysselsättningsantagandet.
The question this page answers
How are public welfare costs and revenues calculated over time, per generation and for different population groups — and which assumptions drive the results?
Key figures — the most important numbers on this page
Annual fiscal net effect
≈ SEK –74,000
Ruist (ESO 2018:3) — cross-section per refugee per year. Modelled value, denominator: the entire refugee population 2015.
Life-cycle net (NIER)
≈ –74 %
NIER Special Study 117 — life-cycle present value for the 2015 refugee cohort, share of the Swedish-born equivalent net. Modelled.
Discount rate (NIER/ESO)
3.0 %
Real discount rate used in main scenarios. Sensitivity analyses at 2 % / 4 %.
Dependency ratio 2070
89.1
Persons 0–19 + 65+ per 100 aged 20–64; own calculation based on SCB, Population Projection 2025 (TAB6578). Rising from 77.1 (2024, SCB TAB4642).
Individual public consumption
≈ 25 %
SCB National Accounts — health, care and education directed to identifiable individuals, share of GDP.
Collective public consumption
≈ 27 %
Defence, judiciary, administration — harder to allocate per individual in life-cycle calculations.
Ageing costs EU 2070
≈ +9 %
EU Ageing Report 2024 — projected rise in age-related public spending as share of GDP.
Self-support threshold
≈ SEK 15,300/mo
ESO 2023 (Eklund) — work income above the social-assistance norm. Used as outcome measure in life-cycle models.
Objective observations — not interpretations
Method note
The page strictly separates (1) public-fiscal effect — impact on state, municipal and regional budgets — from (2) macroeconomic effect — impact on GDP, productivity, consumption and labour supply. A life-cycle calculation showing a negative fiscal net for a group may simultaneously be macroeconomically positive (e.g. by relieving labour shortages) or vice versa. The calculations also do not capture social, humanitarian or cultural effects — they measure only money. Underlying differences in discount rate (2 %, 3 %, 4 %), time horizon (lifetime, 30 years, generations), employment assumptions (current state, convergence, alternative paths), and treatment of public assets (pension system, infrastructure) explain most of the divergence between studies. No single calculation is 'right' — several scenarios must be compared. Projections over 40–60 years (EU Ageing Report, Long-Term Survey) carry wide uncertainty intervals and always report sensitivity analyses.
How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover
Agencies and research institutions behind this page
7
agencies/institutions
8
reports & studies
4
primary datasets
Short answers to what is most often discussed
Logical next steps if you want to understand the background
Cost of immigration
The methodological field — Ruist, NIER and the foundations of fiscal calculations.
Work decides
How employment and wage income relate to net contribution.
Tax burden
The revenue side of the public-fiscal calculation.
Welfare dependency over time
The transfer side across cohorts and time.
Enforcement gap
Population composition affects long-term calculations.
Where does the money go?
Where public expenditure actually lands in the state budget.
The data comes from official primary sources.
KI · Irregular
Specialstudie 117 — Invandrades nettobidrag till de offentliga finanserna 1983–2022Net contribution to public finances per person and year, by group (only KI's own calculated values)
Latest data point · Source published
Pensions and demographics: employment, dependency ratio and life expectancy did not match SCB
The key figure gave the 2024 employment rate for foreign-born aged 20–64 as about 71 per cent, compared with about 84 per cent for native-born. According to the SCB Labour Force Survey (TAB6529) it was 73.7 per cent for foreign-born and 85.0 per cent for native-born. The claim that employment is the central variable has been removed, since KI names several factors that primarily explain the differences in net contribution (KI 117, p. 16). The demographic dependency ratio for 2024 was given as about 76 with the total population as denominator. According to SCB (TAB4642) it was 77.1, and the denominator is persons aged 20–64. Remaining life expectancy at 65 for women was given as about 83 years, and life expectancy as about 84 years for men and 86 for women. According to SCB (TAB5241), remaining life expectancy at 65 in 2024 was 22.4 years for women and 20.2 years for men, and life expectancy at birth was 85.4 years for women and 82.3 years for men. The projected dependency ratio for 2070 was given as about 90; an own calculation based on the SCB Population Projection 2025 (TAB6578) gives 89.1. The same corrections apply to /en/long-term-costs, where the 2024 ratio was given as about 76 and the 2070 ratio as about 90 per cent (the measure is per 100 persons, not a percentage), and /en/lifecycle-costs, where life expectancy in 2024 was given as about 82 years; according to SCB (TAB5241) it was 85.4 years for women and 82.3 years for men. The conclusion is not affected: employment and the age structure matter for the financing of the pension system. The correction was published and checked on the site on 4 November 2026.
Copy a reference or the canonical link. The original source is included when registered for this page.
SVERIGEFAKTA, “Long-term welfare costs — life cycle, generation and scenarios”. Original source: KI. https://sverigefakta.com/en/long-term-costs
SVERIGEFAKTA, “Long-term welfare costs — life cycle, generation and scenarios”. Original source: KI (https://www.konj.se/publikationer/specialstudier/2025-06-04-redovisning-regeringsuppdrag-om-migrationens-nettoeffekter/). https://sverigefakta.com/en/long-term-costs
Long-term welfare costs — life cycle, generation and scenarios. (n.d.). SVERIGEFAKTA. Retrieved 2026-11-04, from https://sverigefakta.com/en/long-term-costs Original source: KI.
“Long-term welfare costs — life cycle, generation and scenarios” (n.d.) SVERIGEFAKTA. Available at: https://sverigefakta.com/en/long-term-costs (Accessed: 2026-11-04). Original source: KI.
@misc{sverigefakta_2026_en_longtermcosts,
title = {Long-term welfare costs — life cycle, generation and scenarios},
howpublished = {\url{https://sverigefakta.com/en/long-term-costs}},
note = {Presented by SVERIGEFAKTA; original source KI}
}https://sverigefakta.com/en/long-term-costs