Enforcement · data-driven
The enforcement gap
Between a final removal decision and an actual departure there is a gap. We measure its size, the family-reunification multiplier and interpreter costs.
Sources: Swedish Migration Agency annual reports 2014–2023, Swedish NAO 2020:7, border police reports.
Last updated: View changelog
Decisions 2014–2023
156 000
Enforced
77 000
Absconded / missing
55 800
Enforcement gap: 51 % of decisions have not resulted in an actual departure.
Year by year
| Year | Decisions | Enforced | Absconded | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 12 400 | 7 800 | 4 100 | 37 % |
| 2015 | 13 900 | 7 300 | 4 900 | 47 % |
| 2016 | 19 800 | 10 300 | 6 400 | 48 % |
| 2017 | 26 400 | 12 600 | 9 900 | 52 % |
| 2018 | 21 700 | 9 800 | 8 500 | 55 % |
| 2019 | 17 300 | 8 500 | 6 400 | 51 % |
| 2020 | 12 100 | 5 300 | 4 800 | 56 % |
| 2021 | 9 400 | 4 100 | 3 400 | 56 % |
| 2022 | 10 200 | 4 900 | 3 500 | 52 % |
| 2023 | 12 800 | 6 400 | 3 900 | 50 % |
The family-reunification multiplier
Number of new residence permits via family ties compared to asylum seekers the same year. A high ratio means family migration exceeds that year’s asylum inflow (lagged from earlier years).
| Year | Asylum seekers | Family permits | Family / asylum ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 32 000 | 26 900 | 0.84× |
| 2013 | 54 300 | 38 100 | 0.70× |
| 2015 | 162 900 | 41 200 | 0.25× |
| 2017 | 25 700 | 62 400 | 2.43× |
| 2019 | 21 900 | 49 700 | 2.27× |
| 2021 | 11 400 | 33 400 | 2.93× |
| 2023 | 12 300 | 28 700 | 2.33× |
Interpreter costs 2023 (per agency)
Only agencies that itemise interpreter costs in their annual report. Municipalities and most regions are missing — the real total is higher.
| Agency | Million SEK | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Migrationsverket | 412 | Migrationsverket årsredovisning 2023 ↗ |
| Domstolarna (Domstolsverket) | 268 | Domstolsverket årsredovisning 2023 ↗ |
| Försäkringskassan | 187 | FK årsredovisning 2023 ↗ |
| Arbetsförmedlingen | 156 | AF årsredovisning 2023 ↗ |
| Polisen | 134 | Polismyndigheten årsredovisning 2023 ↗ |
| Region Stockholm (vård) | 142 | Region Stockholm årsredovisning 2023 ↗ |
| Total (reported) | 1 299 | ≈ 1.3 bn SEK/yr — the floor, not the ceiling. |
FAQ
- What is the ‘enforcement gap’?
- The difference between the number of final removal decisions and the number of actually enforced departures. The rest abscond, go underground, or remain in Sweden for years.
- Why does family migration grow faster than asylum?
- Family migration lags — typically 1–4 years after the asylum seeker is granted a residence permit. Large asylum cohorts 2014–16 therefore produce high family migration 2017–2023.
- Are interpreter costs complete?
- No. Only agencies that itemise interpreter costs in their annual report are included. Municipalities, regions (other than Stockholm) and several smaller agencies are missing — the real total is higher.