Andel som är i arbete eller studier (minst 50 % omfattning) 90 dagar efter att etableringsuppdraget/-programmet avslutats. Måttet definieras i Arbetsförmedlingens regleringsbrev.

Räknas subventionerade anställningar?

Ja. Måttet skiljer inte mellan reguljärt arbete och subventionerade anställningar (extratjänster, introduktionsjobb m.fl.).

Varför bytte programmet form 2018?

Etableringsuppdraget ersattes av etableringsprogrammet 1 januari 2018, vilket innebar en något ändrad utformning. Serien är därför formellt bruten men jämförbar.

Policy · data-driven

The Establishment Mission: targets vs outcomes

Regleringsbrevet har under flera år satt 40 % som mål för andel i jobb/studier 90 dagar efter avslutad etablering. Måltalet har varierat mellan år; utfallet har inte nått nivån sedan 2014.

Källa: Arbetsförmedlingens årsredovisningar 2014–2023 samt regleringsbrev via ESV.

Last updated: 19 Jul 2026View changelog

Fact pageSources checked 19 Jul 2026

Government target

40 %

Average outcome 2014–2023

33 %

Years the target was met

0 / 11

Year by year

2014

Target: 40 %
Outcome: 30 %
Difference: -10 pp
Note: Mål regleringsbrev; utfall AF ÅR 2014.

2015

Target: 40 %
Outcome: 31 %
Difference: -9 pp
Note

2016

Target: 40 %
Outcome: 33 %
Difference: -7 pp
Note

2017

Target: 40 %
Outcome: 35 %
Difference: -5 pp
Note

2018

Target: 35 %
Outcome: 33 %
Difference: -2 pp
Note: Etableringsprogrammet (ny form 1 jan 2018).

2019

Target: 40 %
Outcome: 36 %
Difference: -4 pp
Note

2020

Target: 40 %
Outcome: 27 %
Difference: -13 pp
Note: Pandemiåret.

2021

Target: 40 %
Outcome: 31 %
Difference: -9 pp
Note

2022

Target: 40 %
Outcome: 36 %
Difference: -4 pp
Note

2023

Target: 40 %
Outcome: 35 %
Difference: -5 pp
Note

2024

Target: 40 %
Outcome: 37 %
Difference: -3 pp
Note: AF ÅR 2024: övergångar till arbete/studier 37,6 % totalt (Tabell 2.3). Etableringsprogrammets specifika 90-dagars-måltal redovisas inte längre isolerat i ÅR 2024 — värdet är AF:s aggregerade övergångstal.

Etableringsuppdraget — mål och utfall år för år
Year	Target	Outcome	Difference	Note
2014	40 %	30 %	-10 pp	Mål regleringsbrev; utfall AF ÅR 2014.
2015	40 %	31 %	-9 pp
2016	40 %	33 %	-7 pp
2017	40 %	35 %	-5 pp
2018	35 %	33 %	-2 pp	Etableringsprogrammet (ny form 1 jan 2018).
2019	40 %	36 %	-4 pp
2020	40 %	27 %	-13 pp	Pandemiåret.
2021	40 %	31 %	-9 pp
2022	40 %	36 %	-4 pp
2023	40 %	35 %	-5 pp
2024	40 %	37 %	-3 pp	AF ÅR 2024: övergångar till arbete/studier 37,6 % totalt (Tabell 2.3). Etableringsprogrammets specifika 90-dagars-måltal redovisas inte längre isolerat i ÅR 2024 — värdet är AF:s aggregerade övergångstal.

Each row is sourced from the agency’s own annual report. Links to all of them are at the bottom.

What's the difference between percent (%) and percentage points (pp)?

Percentage points measure the absolute difference between two percentages — not the relative change.

Example: if employment goes from 40% to 30%, that's −10 percentage points (absolute) but −25% (relative).

FAQ

What is measured?: Share in work or studies (at least 50 % scope) 90 days after the establishment mission/programme has ended. The measure is defined in the agency’s letter of appropriations.
Are subsidised jobs counted?: Yes. The measure does not distinguish between regular employment and subsidised jobs.
Why did the programme change form in 2018?: The establishment mission was replaced by the establishment programme on 1 January 2018, with a slightly different design. The series is formally broken but comparable.

Sources

The question this page answers

What is Sweden's establishment mission — and how do the agencies measure whether it works?

At a glance

Key figures — the most important numbers on this page

Government mandate target

40 %

Share in work or studies 90 days after leaving the programme.

Average outcome 2014–2023

≈ 33 %

Per Public Employment Service annual reports — the target has never been reached.

Programme length

24 months

The establishment programme runs for up to two years, with possible extension in specific cases.

Median to 50 % employment

≈ 8 years

SCB LISA — refugee cohort 2010, time from arrival to half in paid work.

Mission → programme

1 Jan 2018

The establishment mission was replaced by the establishment programme, with revised regulation.

Budget 2026

≈ SEK 5.3 bn

EA13 Establishment benefits and measures, Budget Bill 2025/26:1.

Participants 2024

≈ 25,000

Average number enrolled in the establishment programme over the year.

Studies within the outcome

≈ 45 %

Among those counted as 'in work or studies', studies make up a substantial share.

What does the data show?

Objective observations — not interpretations

The establishment mission (2010–2017) and establishment programme (2018–) are the Public Employment Service's (Arbetsförmedlingen) statutory tasks for newcomers with residence permits as refugees, quota refugees, protected persons or family members. The programme covers SFI (Swedish for immigrants), civic orientation, work placement, assessment and matching for up to 24 months.
Since 2013 the government mandate has set 40 % as the target share in work or studies (at least 50 % activity) 90 days after leaving the programme. Outcomes have ranged between 27 and 38 % — below target every single year.
The 'work or studies' measure is broad. It includes subsidised employment (new-start jobs, extra services), SFI studies, labour-market training and adult education. Regular unsubsidised employment makes up a smaller share.
Long-term establishment is measured by SCB via the LISA register. The median to reach 50 % employment is about 8 years after arrival for the refugee cohort 2010. IFAU shows that educational background and age at arrival are strong predictors.
The establishment programme is the main but not the only measure. Many newcomers move — in parallel or afterwards — into other labour-market programmes (Job and Development Guarantee, labour-market training) or municipal services (adult education, income support).

Method note
The page rests on three different measurement traditions: (1) the Public Employment Service's internal follow-up per the government mandate — measures 90 days after exit, with a broad outcome measure; (2) SCB register data (LISA/RAMS) — measures employment year by year after year of arrival, regardless of which measure the individual took part in; (3) research studies from IFAU, NIER and ESO that combine register data with control groups to estimate the effect of specific measures. The three traditions answer different questions and give different results. The mandate measure is simple but does not capture long-term establishment. Register data are exhaustive but do not separate programme participants from others. Research studies are methodologically stricter but only cover parts of the population. When reading results always ask: short or long horizon? Regular work or all measures? Population inside or outside the programme?

Definitions

How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover

Establishment mission: The Public Employment Service's task 2010–2017 to lead the establishment of newly arrived refugees and their family members in working and civic life. Replaced the municipalities' previous main responsibility (introduction benefit).
Establishment programme: From 1 January 2018 the formal labour-market policy measure for newcomers. Based on Ordinance (2017:820) with an entitlement to establishment benefit for up to 24 months at full-time participation.
Establishment benefit: Financial benefit to participants in the establishment programme: SEK 308/day (2025) at full time. Complemented by establishment supplement for children (SEK 800–1,500/month/child) and housing benefit.
Establishment time: Time from residence permit (or municipal registration) to self-support. Measured in different ways: the 90-day measure after exit, employment at year 1/3/5/10 after arrival, time to 50 % employment rate.
Self-support: The ability to support oneself without public transfers (income support, establishment benefit, activity grant). ESO sets the threshold at about SEK 15,300/month in earned income (2023 level). Clearly below employment in the Public Employment Service register.
Labour-market establishment: The step into the regular labour market — regular employment or subsidised employment without activity grant. Analytically separate from continued studies or programme participation.
Subsidised employment: Employment where the state covers part of the wage cost. Most common for newcomers: new-start jobs (up to 5 years), introduction jobs, extra services. Counted as 'work' in the mandate outcome measure.
Regular employment: Employment without state subsidy. Reported separately in some special reports but not in the main 'work or studies' measure. IFAU often uses this as the outcome measure in effect studies.
Public Employment Service: Government agency responsible for the establishment programme. Since 2019–2022 has undergone a reorganisation with an expanded role for independent providers (Rusta och matcha). Establishment remains a statutory state task.
Establishment plan: Individual plan drawn up by the Public Employment Service together with the newcomer. Specifies measures (SFI, civic orientation, work placement, job-preparation) and their scope. Based on assessment of education and work experience.
Establishment measure: Individual activity within the programme: SFI, civic orientation, credential recognition, work placement, labour-market training. Together must cover at least 40 hours per week to give entitlement to full establishment benefit.
Follow-up period: The time window used by the outcome measure. Mandate: 90 days after exit. SCB LISA: full year. IFAU studies: 1–10 years. The difference between short and long horizon is large.

Primary sources

Agencies and research institutions behind this page

agencies/institutions

reports & studies

primary datasets

Frequently asked questions

Short answers to what is most often discussed

The National Audit Office (RiR 2021:5) and ESO (Eklund 2023) point to several factors: low educational background among a large share of participants, slow SFI progression, sluggish labour-market processes, and that the target itself was calibrated for a very different group composition than the one that actually filled the programme after 2015. The target has not been adjusted despite major changes in the participant population.

Logical next steps if you want to understand the background

Sources for this page

The data comes from official primary sources.

Arbetsförmedlingen · Monthly
Arbetsförmedlingen — statistik om etableringsuppdraget
Deltagare i etableringsprogrammet och status efter avslut
Latest data point 30 Jun 2026 · Source published 2 Jul 2026

Corrections for this page

19 Jul 2026 · Faktafel
Etableringsuppdraget — 2024 utfall tillagt
Tabellen på /etableringsuppdraget sträckte sig till 2023. Arbetsförmedlingens årsredovisning 2024 redovisar 37 % i arbete/studier efter avslutad etablering; raden är tillagd och sidan uppdaterad 2026-07-19.

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@misc{sverigefakta_2026_en_establishmentmission,
  author       = {Sverigefakta.com},
  title        = {Sverigefakta},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://sverigefakta.com/en/establishment-mission}},
  note         = {Dataset v2026.2, accessed 2026-08-15}
}

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