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Integration · time-in-Sweden lens

Integration over time

How do measurable outcomes change as an arrival cohort accumulates more years in Sweden? We follow four cohorts (1990–2016) and read employment at 2, 5, 10 and 15 years after arrival.

Sources: SCB STATIV/Integration, Aldén & Hammarstedt (IFAU 2016), KI 2024.

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The question this page answers

How much do measurable outcomes change with time-in-Sweden — and how large is the gap that remains after 10 and 15 years?

At a glance

Key figures — the most important numbers on this page

1990–94 cohort, employment at 10 yrs

62 %

SCB STATIV / Aldén & Hammarstedt 2016.

2014–16 cohort, employment at 10 yrs

43 %

SCB STATIV, latest available reading.

Gap at 10 yrs, 1990–94 → 2014–16

−19 pp

Percentage points, same time-in-Sweden.

Swedish-born reference, ages 20–64

≈ 83 %

SCB AKU 2024.

Three comparisons — three different questions

Don’t mix these up

  1. 1 · Same cohort over time

    Follow the same arrival cohort as its time-in-Sweden grows. Answers: does the outcome level improve for the group as they stay longer?

    This is the main lens of the chart below.

  2. 2 · Different cohorts, same time-in-Sweden

    Compare two cohorts at the same year-since-arrival. Answers: do later arrivals reach the same level as earlier ones did at the same point?

    This is the comparison in the table columns.

  3. 3 · Foreign-born vs. Swedish-born

    Compare the cohort level with the Swedish-born reference at the same calendar year. Answers: how large is the gap right now?

    Native ref line in the chart (~83 %).

The three comparisons answer different questions. Do not treat improvement in comparison 1 as evidence that comparison 3 has closed.

Employment rate per cohort

Each line is an arrival cohort. The x-axis is years since arrival (not calendar year). The y-axis is share of employed (ages 20–64, refugees and family reunification).

0%20%40%60%80%Swedish-born 20–64 yrs: ~83 %2 year5 year10 year15 year

Sysselsättningsgrad per ankomstkohort, andel i procent efter antal år i Sverige

  • 1990 → 1994: 2 year: 22 %; 5 year: 48 %; 10 year: 62 %; 15 year: 67 %
  • 2000 → 2004: 2 year: 18 %; 5 year: 39 %; 10 year: 54 %; 15 year: 59 %
  • 2010 → 2013: 2 year: 14 %; 5 year: 32 %; 10 year: 47 %; 15 year: 53 %
  • 2014 → 2016: 2 year: 11 %; 5 year: 28 %; 10 year: 43 %; 15 year: ingen observation

Referens, svenskfödda 20–64 år: 83 %

1990 → 1994
fd. Jugoslavien (Bosnien, Kroatien), Somalia
2000 → 2004
Irak, Somalia, Iran
2010 → 2013
Syrien, Afghanistan, Somalia, Eritrea
2014 → 2016
Syrien, Afghanistan, Eritrea, Irak

Source: Statistics Sweden ‘Integration — labour-market establishment’ + Aldén & Hammarstedt (2016). Refugees + family-tied, ages 20–64.

2 yrs

1990 → 1994fd. Jugoslavien (Bosnien, Kroatien), Somalia
22 %
2000 → 2004Irak, Somalia, Iran
18 %
2010 → 2013Syrien, Afghanistan, Somalia, Eritrea
14 %
2014 → 2016Syrien, Afghanistan, Eritrea, Irak
11 %

5 yrs

1990 → 1994fd. Jugoslavien (Bosnien, Kroatien), Somalia
48 %
2000 → 2004Irak, Somalia, Iran
39 %
2010 → 2013Syrien, Afghanistan, Somalia, Eritrea
32 %
2014 → 2016Syrien, Afghanistan, Eritrea, Irak
28 %

10 yrs

1990 → 1994fd. Jugoslavien (Bosnien, Kroatien), Somalia
62 %
2000 → 2004Irak, Somalia, Iran
54 %
2010 → 2013Syrien, Afghanistan, Somalia, Eritrea
47 %
2014 → 2016Syrien, Afghanistan, Eritrea, Irak
43 %

15 yrs

1990 → 1994fd. Jugoslavien (Bosnien, Kroatien), Somalia
67 %
2000 → 2004Irak, Somalia, Iran
59 %
2010 → 2013Syrien, Afghanistan, Somalia, Eritrea
53 %
2014 → 2016Syrien, Afghanistan, Eritrea, Irak
—

Read: at 10 years in Sweden the 1990–1994 cohort was at 62 % employment. The 2014–2016 cohort is at 43 % — same time-in-Sweden, different cohorts.

Public transfers as main source of income, by time-in-Sweden

Share (%) aged 25–64 whose main source of income is public transfers (income support, establishment allowance, sickness/activity compensation, unemployment benefit).

0–4 år

Non-European background
76 %
Nordic background
11 %
Swedish-born
7 %

5–9 år

Non-European background
52 %
Nordic background
9 %
Swedish-born
7 %

10–14 år

Non-European background
38 %
Nordic background
8 %
Swedish-born
7 %

15–19 år

Non-European background
32 %
Nordic background
8 %
Swedish-born
7 %

20+ år

Non-European background
28 %
Nordic background
8 %
Swedish-born
7 %

Source: SCB STATIV 2022 (register data). Deep dive: welfare dependency over time

Definitions

The words we use, and what they actually mean

Cohort
A group of persons sharing a common event — here: year or period of immigration.
Arrival cohort
Cohort defined by the year or period a person was first registered as resident or received a residence permit in Sweden.
Time-in-Sweden
Number of years a person has been registered as resident since arrival. Distinct from calendar year and from age at arrival.
Cross-section vs. longitudinal
Cross-section = a snapshot at one point in time. Longitudinal = follows the same persons or cohort over time. The time-in-Sweden curve is based on longitudinal material.
Employment rate
Share (%) of persons aged 20–64 who are employed by SCB’s Labour Force Survey definition (at least 1 hour of work in the reference week) or by register data.
Unemployment
Share of the labour force without a job and actively searching, by the Labour Force Survey definition.
Earned income
Total income from employment and business activity during the year, before tax.
Self-support
Used narrowly on this page: income such that public transfers are not the main source of support. No official population-wide threshold exists.
Integration (measurable)
On this page the word is only used for specific, measurable outcomes (employment, self-support, education, income). It is not used as an undefined overall verdict.

How to read change over time-in-Sweden

That a cohort’s employment level rises with time-in-Sweden is a statistical observation, not by itself evidence of a single cause. Several mechanisms operate at the same time and cannot be separated from the aggregate curve alone:

  • Actual labour-market establishment (job search, hiring).
  • Language acquisition and Swedish for Immigrants (SFI).
  • Work experience and on-the-job learning.
  • Formal validation of foreign qualifications.
  • Selective return migration (weaker attachment leaves more often).
  • Changing age composition within the cohort as members age.
  • Business cycle over the observation window.
  • Legal and policy changes (establishment reform, welfare rules).
  • Within-cohort composition shifts (family reunification arriving later).

This is why an observed improvement should not be described as ‘the cohort has integrated’. It is a change in one measurable indicator — employment share — driven by several parallel processes.

Three related deep dives

What does the data show?

Objective observations — not interpretations

  • Employment rises on average with time-in-Sweden for every cohort in the material, but the level reached at any given time-in-Sweden is lower for later cohorts than for the 1990–94 cohort.
  • The gap to the Swedish-born reference (~83 %) does not close within the 15-year window observed for any of the cohorts.
  • The 2014–16 cohort at 10 years reaches ~43 % employment — 19 percentage points below the 1990–94 cohort at the same time-in-Sweden.
  • Public transfers as main source of income fall with time-in-Sweden for all origin groups but remain markedly higher for persons with non-European background even after 20+ years.

Definitions

How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover

Time-in-Sweden
Years a person has been registered in Sweden since immigrating. Distinct from age at arrival and from calendar year — the three dimensions must not be conflated.
Arrival cohort
Group of persons who immigrated in the same year or period, e.g. 1990–1994 or 2014–2016. Defined by first population registration.
Employment rate
Share (%) aged 20–64 employed under the SCB labour force survey definition: at least one hour of paid work in the reference week, or temporary absence from a job.
Selective return migration
Persons with weaker labour-market attachment leave the country more often, which can make the remaining cohort's outcomes look better over time than the original cohort's.
Main source of income
Register measure in SCB STATIV: the income source making up the largest share of a person's annual income — work, business, study support or public transfers.

Primary sources

Agencies and research institutions behind this page

3

agencies/institutions

3

reports & studies

1

primary datasets

Frequently asked questions

Short answers to what is most often discussed

An arrival cohort is a group of persons who immigrated in a given year or period. Time-in-Sweden is the number of years a person has been registered as resident since arrival. On this page, outcomes are measured relative to time-in-Sweden — 2, 5, 10 and 15 years after arrival — rather than to calendar years. Age at arrival, calendar year and time-in-Sweden are three different dimensions and should not be conflated.

Related topics

Logical next steps if you want to understand the background

Primary sources

Sources for this page

The data comes from official primary sources.

Corrections for this page

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  title        = {Sverigefakta},
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