Review · Safety
Crime and immigration — what Brå actually shows
Brå 2021:9: the crime-suspicion over-risk is roughly 2.5× for the foreign-born and 3.2× for the second generation (adjusted for age/sex). Adding socio-economic controls narrows the gap — but does not close it. Costs for the justice system are not attributed by origin in the KI or Ruist net-fiscal models.
Last updated: View changelog
Brå's series — suspects by background
The chart shows the share of persons in each group suspected of at least one offence in 2015–2017. Adjusted for age and sex. Adding socio-economic controls shrinks the differences further — see the note below.
Visualisering · Brå 2021:9
Överrisk för misstanke om brott — relativt referensgruppen
Rå = överrisk efter kontroll för ålder och kön. Standardiserad = även efter kontroll för utbildning, inkomst och boendeområde. Referensgrupp = inrikes födda med två inrikesfödda föräldrar.
Misstänkta för brott — utrikes födda
2,5x(1,5x std.)
Brå 2021:9, tabell 4 och 6
Misstänkta för brott — andra generationen (två utrikesfödda föräldrar)
3,2x(1,8x std.)
Brå 2021:9, tabell 4 och 6
Misstänkta för dödligt våld — andelskvot utrikes födda
3,0x
Andelskvot baserad på Brå:s löpande statistik över misstänkta för dödligt våld (~60 %) mot SCB:s befolkning (~20 % utrikes födda). Inte en multivariat överrisk — ej kontrollerat för ålder, kön eller socioekonomi.
Sexualbrott — överrisk utrikes födda
2,1x(1,5x std.)
Brå 2021:9, tabell 4 och 6
Rån — överrisk utrikes födda
4,1x(2,6x std.)
Brå 2021:9, tabell 4 och 6
Senaste utvecklingen · dödsskjutningar
2024: 44 dödsskjutningar (Polisen/Brå), ner från 53 (2023) och toppen 63 (2022). Nedgången är reell — men nivån är fortfarande omkring 4× nivån 2011 (12 fall) och bland de högsta i Västeuropa per capita.
Källa: Brottsförebyggande rådet, rapport 2021:9 + Polisens statistik över skjutningar med dödlig utgång. Avser misstanke om brott — inte fällande dom. Skillnaderna kvarstår även efter kontroll för socioekonomiska faktorer, om än i mindre omfattning.
Important — Brå's own formulation
When Brå controls for sex, age, education, income and neighbourhood, the over-representation for foreign-born narrows substantially — but a residual remains even after the controls. Brå states that socio-economics explains a large share, not all, of the difference (Brå 2021:9, pp. 8–9).
Share of suspects with foreign background — under different definitions
Brå uses the Swedish definition (foreign-born or Swedish-born with two foreign-born parents). Under the German Migrationshintergrund the group is broader — persons with one foreign-born parent are also included.
33.0%
Sverige: Själv född utomlands ELLER båda föräldrar utrikes födda.
Multiplikatorerna är pedagogiska approximationer för att illustrera vad en bredare definition skulle innebära — inte en omräkning av KI:s eller Ruists belopp. Definitioner påverkar hur statistik tolkas. En snävare definition kan dölja långsiktiga effekter av migration.
Note — two different 'foreign-background shares': On /totalkostnad 26.5 % is the share of the population with foreign background (SCB). Here 33 % is the share of criminal suspects with foreign background (Brå 2021:9). Different numerators and denominators — no contradiction, but the two figures must not be mixed. More → Definitions of foreign background.
Why is this missing from the net-fiscal calculations?
- The justice system is treated as a collective good. KI 2024 and Ruist 2019 do not allocate police, prosecutors, courts, prisons or victim support per individual or origin group. The net contribution for groups with a higher suspicion rate is therefore not calculated — in either direction — in the published models.
- Victims' costs are entirely absent. Lost production, healthcare, insurance payouts, insecurity and economic decisions (moves, security investments) do not appear in any register-based net-fiscal study.
- The second generation is counted as Swedish-born. Children of foreign-born parents are classed in KI's register data as Swedish-born. Their net contribution — including the higher over-risk for crime documented by Brå — is folded into the reference group.
Primary sources
bra.se
Brå 2021:9 — Persons suspected of crime by Swedish and foreign background
Brå's latest register study on over-representation. Controls for age, sex and socio-economics.
Read the source ↗
bra.se
Brå — Confirmed lethal violence (annual)
Brå's annual reports on lethal violence, including data on suspected perpetrators' background.
Read the source ↗
bra.se
Brå — Shootings and bombings
Statistics and analyses of grave violence, including links to organised crime.
Read the source ↗
Brottsförebyggande rådet
Brå 2021:8 — Dödligt skjutvapenvåld i Sverige och andra europeiska länder
Jämför Sverige med 22 europeiska länder. Sverige har bland de högsta nivåerna av dödligt skjutvapenvåld per capita.
Read the source ↗
Brottsförebyggande rådet
Brå 2024:7 — Ökningen av skjutvapenvåld i Sverige
Analys av drivkrafter bakom ökningen 2013–2022 samt utvecklingen efteråt.
Read the source ↗
Polisens nationella operativa avdelning (Noa)
Lägesbild över organiserad brottslighet
Polisens samlade lägesbild över kriminella nätverk, utsatta områden och rekryteringsbaser.
Read the source ↗
Brottsförebyggande rådet
Nationella trygghetsundersökningen (NTU)
Sveriges största årliga undersökning om utsatthet för brott, otrygghet och förtroende för rättsväsendet.
Read the source ↗
The question this page answers
What do Brå's register studies show about over-representation — and why are justice-system costs missing from the net-fiscal calculations?
At a glance
Key figures — the most important numbers on this page
Foreign-born over-risk
≈2.5×
Brå 2021:9 — suspected of crime, age/sex-adjusted
Second generation
≈3.2×
Brå 2021:9 — Swedish-born with two foreign-born parents
Lethal violence
≈60 %
Share foreign-born among suspected perpetrators (Brå)
Justice system 2024
70 bn SEK
State budget area 4 — not allocated by origin
What does the data show?
Objective observations — not interpretations
- A documented over-representation exists in register data. Brå 2021:9 reports roughly 2.5× for foreign-born and 3.2× for the second generation compared to Swedish-born with two Swedish-born parents, adjusted for age and sex.
- Adding controls for education, income and neighbourhood substantially narrows the gap — but a residual remains, on Brå's own reading.
- Suspicion is not conviction. The over-risk refers to the share of persons in each group suspected of at least one offence during the 2015–2017 observation window.
- Costs for the justice system (police, prosecutors, courts, prisons, victim support) are not attributed by country of birth in KI 2024 or Ruist 2019 — they sit outside the standard net-fiscal calculations.
Method note
Brå 2021:9 measures suspects 2015–2017 with register data. When Brå controls for sex, age, education, income and neighbourhood, the over-representation for foreign-born narrows substantially — but a residual remains. Justice-system costs are not allocated by country of birth in the KI or Ruist net-fiscal models.
Definitions
How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover
- Reported offence
- A report to the Police that is registered regardless of whether it is later substantiated. Reports are not convictions.
- Confirmed offence
- An offence that after investigation is judged to have taken place. Always lower than reported offences.
- Suspected person
- A person against whom there is reasonable suspicion of an offence — but no conviction. Brå 2021:9 measures over-representation in this category.
- Prosecuted person
- A person convicted in court, accepting a fine order, or granted a waiver of prosecution.
- Foreign background (SCB)
- Foreign-born, or Swedish-born with two foreign-born parents. Differs from the broader German Migrationshintergrund.
- Second generation
- A Swedish-born person with two foreign-born parents. According to Brå 2021:9 the crime-suspicion over-risk is larger here than in the first generation.
- Socio-economic standardisation
- Statistical method comparing groups with the same income, education and neighbourhood. Shrinks the over-risk — but does not eliminate it in Brå's data.
- Over-risk (odds ratio)
- The ratio between the probability of being suspected in a group and in the reference group (Swedish-born with two Swedish-born parents).
Primary sources
Agencies and research institutions behind this page
4
agencies/institutions
5
reports & studies
3
primary datasets
Frequently asked questions
Short answers to what is most often discussed
Related topics
Logical next steps if you want to understand the background
Nordic shootings
Sweden compared per 100k residents — 2003–2025 and H1 2026.
Bombings
Brå and Police series 1995–2025 and the H1 2026 turn.
Sexual offences
Reported rapes and 2005/2013/2018 legal changes.
Vulnerable areas
Police situation report — 59 areas in 2025.
Sentencing, recidivism, capacity
Sentence levels, recidivism and prison capacity.
Sources for this page
The data comes from official primary sources.
Brå · Annually
Anmälda brottAnmälda brott
Latest data point · Source published