Hur mäter Brå överrepresentationen — och vad räknas som ’brott’?

Brå 2021:9 använder registerdata för personer 15 år och äldre folkbokförda 2014-12-31 och misstankar 2015–2018. Måttet är andelen individer i varje grupp som under perioden misstänkts för minst ett brott med skälig misstankegrad. Rapporten redovisar både totala överrisker och nedbrytning per brottskategori. Fällande domar behandlas i en separat statistik — misstankestatistiken är alltid större.

Vad händer med skillnaden om man kontrollerar för socioekonomi?

Ojusterat är överrisken 2,51× för utrikes födda och 3,21× för andra generationen. Efter ålder och kön: 2,25× respektive 1,96×. Efter ålder, kön, disponibel inkomst, egen utbildning och kommuntyp: 1,76× respektive 1,68× (Brå 2021:9, figur 7, s. 51). Överriskerna minskar alltså i alla grupper, men en del av skillnaden kvarstår.

Är detta ’förstahandsöverrisk’ eller ’dömda’?

Överrisken avser misstänkta för brott — inte fällda i domstol. Misstankestatistik övervärderar antalet gärningspersoner, men motsvarande övervärdering finns i alla grupper.

Är andra generationens överrisk högre än utrikes föddas?

Bara ojusterat (3,21× mot 2,51×). Efter justering för ålder och kön är den lägre (1,96× mot 2,25×), främst eftersom gruppen är yngre. Efter fem faktorer: 1,68× mot 1,76×. Siffrorna beskriver samband, inte orsaker.

Vad räknas som ’utländsk bakgrund’?

SCB:s definition: utrikes född, eller inrikes född med två utrikesfödda föräldrar. Tyska Migrationshintergrund är bredare — även personer med en utrikes född förälder räknas då in.

Ingår brottslighetens kostnader i nettobidragskalkylerna?

En separat beräkning av brottslighetens samhällsekonomiska kostnader redovisas inte här. Vilka offentliga utgifter som ingår och hur de fördelas framgår av respektive studie (t.ex. Ruist, Tid för integration, ESO 2018:3).

Är brottsligheten på väg upp eller ner?

Olika kategorier rör sig i olika riktning. Dödligt skjutvapenvåld har sjunkit 2023–2025 och H1 2026. Anmälda sexualbrott ligger däremot kvar på historiskt höga nivåer.

Review · Safety

Crime and immigration — what Brå actually shows

Brå 2021:9: the crime-suspicion over-risk 2015–2018 is 2.51× unadjusted for the foreign-born (2.25× after age/sex, 1.76× after five factors). Suspicion is not conviction. A separate calculation of the socio-economic costs of crime is not presented here. Which public expenditures are included and how they are allocated is set out in each study.

Reference hub

Brå's series — suspects by background

The chart shows the over-risk of being suspected of at least one offence 2015–2018 (persons aged 15+ registered on 31 Dec 2014), relative to the Swedish-born with two Swedish-born parents: unadjusted, after age and sex, and after five factors. Suspicion is not conviction.

What does this measure?· Suspected personsOfficial statistics

Unit: number of persons
Measures: Persons who after investigation are deemed reasonably suspected of an offence.
Does not measure: Suspected is not convicted — the suspicion has not been tried by a court in this statistic.

Important — Brå's own formulation

Brå writes that standardisation consistently reduces the over-risks, but that part of the difference between the groups remains even after standardisation (Brå 2021:9, p. 51). For the foreign-born: 2.51× unadjusted, 2.25× after age and sex, 1.76× after also disposable income, education and municipality type.

Share of all suspects 2015–2018, by background group (Brå 2021:9, table 1)

Population: persons aged 15+ registered in Sweden on 31 December 2014 who were suspected of an offence 2015–2018. The shares are percent of all suspects — not the share of each group suspected, not population share and not a risk ratio. Brå reports no crime shares for broader definitions beyond the four groups.

Swedish-born, two Swedish-born parents	51.39 %
Swedish-born, one foreign-born parent	8.26 %
Swedish-born, two foreign-born parents	7.44 %
Foreign-born	32.90 %

Note — two different 'foreign-background shares': On /totalkostnad 26.5 % is the share of the population with foreign background (SCB). Here 40.34 % is the share of suspects 2015–2018 who are foreign-born or Swedish-born with two foreign-born parents (our sum of Brå 2021:9 table 1: 32.90 + 7.44). Different numerators and denominators — no contradiction, but the two figures must not be mixed. More → Definitions of foreign background.

Costs in the net-fiscal studies

No cost calculation of our own here. A separate calculation of the socio-economic costs of crime is not presented here. Which public expenditures are included and how they are allocated is set out in each study. See e.g. Ruist, Tid för integration (ESO 2018:3) and the respective KI report for method and cost items.

Primary sources

bra.se

Brå 2021:9 — Persons suspected of crime by Swedish and foreign background

Brå's register study. Reports over-risks unadjusted, after age and sex, and after age, sex, disposable income, education and municipality type.

Read the source ↗

bra.se

Brå — Confirmed lethal violence (annual)

Brå's annual reports on lethal violence, including data on suspected perpetrators' background.

Read the source ↗

bra.se

Brå — Shootings and bombings

Statistics and analyses of grave violence, including links to organised crime.

Read the source ↗

Brottsförebyggande rådet

Brå 2021:8 — Dödligt skjutvapenvåld i Sverige och andra europeiska länder

Jämför Sverige med 22 europeiska länder. Sverige har bland de högsta nivåerna av dödligt skjutvapenvåld per capita.

Read the source ↗

Brottsförebyggande rådet

Brå 2024:7 — Ökningen av skjutvapenvåld i Sverige

Analys av drivkrafter bakom ökningen 2013–2022 samt utvecklingen efteråt.

Read the source ↗

Polisens nationella operativa avdelning (Noa)

Lägesbild över organiserad brottslighet

Polisens samlade lägesbild över kriminella nätverk, utsatta områden och rekryteringsbaser.

Read the source ↗

Brottsförebyggande rådet

Nationella trygghetsundersökningen (NTU)

Sveriges största årliga undersökning om utsatthet för brott, otrygghet och förtroende för rättsväsendet.

Read the source ↗

The question this page answers

What do Brå's register studies show about over-representation among crime suspects?

At a glance

Key figures — the most important numbers on this page

Foreign-born over-risk (unadjusted)

2.51×

Brå 2021:9, figure 7 — 2.25× after age/sex, 1.76× after five factors

Second generation (unadjusted)

3.21×

Brå 2021:9, figure 7 — 1.96× after age/sex, 1.68× after five factors

Lethal violence

≈60 %

Share foreign-born among suspected perpetrators (Brå)

Justice system 2024

70 bn SEK

State budget area 4 — not allocated by origin

What does the data show?

Objective observations — not interpretations

Brå 2021:9 (suspected of at least one offence 2015–2018, persons aged 15+): unadjusted 2.51× for the foreign-born and 3.21× for the Swedish-born with two foreign-born parents. Adjusted for age and sex 2.25× and 1.96×; also adjusting for disposable income, education and municipality type 1.76× and 1.68×.
Standardisation reduces the over-risks in every group, but part of the difference remains (Brå 2021:9, p. 51). Municipality type is not the same as neighbourhood, and education refers to the person's own — not the parents'.
The second generation's higher ratio applies to the unadjusted figure; after age and sex it is lower than for the foreign-born. Suspicion is not conviction, and the ratios show associations — not causes.
A separate calculation of the socio-economic costs of crime is not presented here. Which public expenditures are included and how they are allocated is set out in each study (e.g. Ruist, Tid för integration, ESO 2018:3).

Method note
Brå 2021:9 measures suspects 2015–2018 with register data. When Brå standardises for age, sex, disposable income, education and municipality type, the foreign-born over-risk falls from 2.51× to 1.76× — a residual remains. Justice-system costs are not allocated by country of birth in the KI or Ruist net-fiscal models.

Definitions

How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover

Reported offence: A report to the Police that is registered regardless of whether it is later substantiated. Reports are not convictions.
Confirmed offence: An offence that after investigation is judged to have taken place. Always lower than reported offences.
Suspected person: A person against whom there is reasonable suspicion of an offence — but no conviction. Brå 2021:9 measures over-representation in this category.
Prosecuted person: A person convicted in court, accepting a fine order, or granted a waiver of prosecution.
Foreign background (SCB): Foreign-born, or Swedish-born with two foreign-born parents. Differs from the broader German Migrationshintergrund.
Second generation: A Swedish-born person with two foreign-born parents. According to Brå 2021:9 the unadjusted over-risk is higher here than among the foreign-born (3.21× vs 2.51×), but lower after age and sex (1.96× vs 2.25×).
Socio-economic standardisation: Statistical method comparing groups with the same age, sex, disposable income, education and municipality type. Shrinks the over-risk — but does not eliminate it in Brå's data.
Over-risk (risk ratio, relative risk): The share of people in a group who were suspected of an offence, divided by the corresponding share in the reference group (Swedish-born with two Swedish-born parents).

Primary sources

Agencies and research institutions behind this page

agencies/institutions

reports & studies

primary datasets

Frequently asked questions

Short answers to what is most often discussed

Brå 2021:9 uses register data for persons aged 15+ registered on 31 Dec 2014 and suspicions during 2015–2018. The measure is the share of individuals in each group suspected of at least one offence, at the 'reasonable suspicion' threshold. The report also breaks down over-risks by crime category. Convictions are reported separately — the suspicion figure is always larger.

Logical next steps if you want to understand the background

Sources for this page

The data comes from official primary sources.

Brå · Annually
Anmälda brott
Anmälda brott
Latest data point 31 Dec 2025 · Source published 31 Mar 2026

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Short source

SVERIGEFAKTA, “Crime and immigration in Sweden — what Brå actually shows”. Original source: Brå. https://sverigefakta.com/en/criminality

Full reference

SVERIGEFAKTA, “Crime and immigration in Sweden — what Brå actually shows”. Original source: Brå (https://bra.se/statistik/statistik-om-rattsvasendet/anmalda-brott). https://sverigefakta.com/en/criminality

APA 7

Crime and immigration in Sweden — what Brå actually shows. (n.d.). SVERIGEFAKTA. Retrieved 2026-11-04, from https://sverigefakta.com/en/criminality Original source: Brå.

Harvard

“Crime and immigration in Sweden — what Brå actually shows” (n.d.) SVERIGEFAKTA. Available at: https://sverigefakta.com/en/criminality (Accessed: 2026-11-04). Original source: Brå.

BibTeX

@misc{sverigefakta_2026_en_criminality,
  title        = {Crime and immigration in Sweden — what Brå actually shows},
  howpublished = {\url{https://sverigefakta.com/en/criminality}},
  note         = {Presented by SVERIGEFAKTA; original source Brå}
}

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More citation formats and rules

Crime and immigration — what Brå actually shows

Brå's series — suspects by background

Costs in the net-fiscal studies

Primary sources

At a glance

What does the data show?

Definitions

Primary sources

Frequently asked questions

Sources for this page

Shootings — Sweden vs Nordics

Bombings — Europe's highest

Crime and immigration — what Brå actually shows

Brå's series — suspects by background

Costs in the net-fiscal studies

Primary sources

At a glance

What does the data show?

Definitions

Primary sources

Frequently asked questions

Sources for this page

Brå's series — suspects by background

Relative risk of being suspected of crime 2015–2018 — unadjusted

Costs in the net-fiscal studies

Primary sources

At a glance

What does the data show?

Definitions

Primary sources

Frequently asked questions

Related topics

Sources for this page

Shootings — Sweden vs Nordics

Bombings — Europe's highest

Brå's series — suspects by background

Relative risk of being suspected of crime 2015–2018 — unadjusted

Costs in the net-fiscal studies

Primary sources

At a glance

What does the data show?

Definitions

Primary sources

Frequently asked questions

Related topics

Sources for this page