Är det här en prognos?

Nej. Det är en pedagogisk simulator med kvalificerade gissningar för att illustrera storleksordning. En prognos är en officiell framskrivning från SCB eller motsvarande — det gör vi inte.

Varför landar 'kostnad per person' lägre än 74 000 kr?

Ruists 74 000 kr är genomsnitt över hela gruppen. När arbetskraftsandelen är över noll drar KI:s +30 000 kr/år ned snittet. När arbetskraftsandelen är noll och integrationskravet lågt närmar sig utfallet Ruists översta spann.

Vad räknar modellen inte med?

Långsiktiga arbetsmarknadseffekter för inrikes födda, konjunktur, bostadsmarknad, säkerhetskostnader, generationseffekter och regionala skillnader. Utfallet är storleksordning, inte kommunprecision.

Kan jag återställa antagandena?

Ja — reset-knappen tar tillbaka standardvärdena. De tre förvalda lägena (Fortsatt väg / Dansk modell / Hög integrationskrav) är genvägar till konsistenta reglageuppsättningar.

Simulator

What if — test alternative models

Here you can test how the fiscal net effect changes under different policy choices. The simulator has three presets: Continue on the current path, Danish model (stricter family reunification) and High integration requirements + low volume. You can also move the sliders freely.

How the model calculates: Ruist's SEK 74,000/year (ESO 2018:3) is the projected average net cost per year over a refugee's lifetime in Sweden. The model's “Cost per person” blends in the labour-migration share (assumed by the model to contribute a net SEK 30,000/year — a model assumption, not an NIER figure), the integration factor and the congestion factor — which is why the outcome lands below SEK 74,000 whenever the labour share is above zero. The formula per KPI is shown in each card. The “Cost per person” card also shows a low–high range from Ruist's groups with the highest and lowest integration potential (SEK 53,000–94,000); it is not an uncertainty interval.

Disclaimer

This is an educational approximation, not an official forecast. Volume assumptions are qualified guesses meant to illustrate orders of magnitude. Cost per person is an average — real outcomes vary with age, origin, education and year of arrival. The results reflect the model's assumptions, not settled political conclusions.

About the deportation slider: crime and its costs are not included in the calculation, so the slider is disabled.

About the tool

What if — assumptions, formulas and limitations

An educational simulator, not an official forecast. The tool computes a simplified fiscal net effect under different policy choices — volume, employment share, integration requirements, deportation — using reference values from Ruist (ESO 2018:3) and KI Special Study 117.

Method, assumptions & limitations

Base value: Ruist (ESO 2018:3): a refugee with average integration potential is projected to cost on average SEK 74,000 net per year over their lifetime in Sweden (58.3 years on average); SEK 53,000 for the group with the highest and SEK 94,000 for the group with the lowest integration potential. The range is a difference between groups, not an uncertainty interval.
Employment share: contributes about +30,000 SEK/year net per person according to KI Special Study 117. The simulator weights this in.
Deportation slider: crime and crime costs are not included in the calculation, so the slider does not affect any result.
Crowding and integration factors are simplified multipliers chosen to illustrate direction, not to forecast exact amounts.
Constants: cohort size, arrival year, relative weights of cost items — documented in each KPI card.
What it does not compute: long-term labour market effects on natives, macro cycles, housing market, security costs, generational effects.
All outputs are labelled scenario / own calculation. No political interpretation is made.

Primary sources

Agencies and research institutions behind this page

agencies/institutions

reports & studies

primary datasets

All primary sources

SCB
Statistiska centralbyrån — statistikdatabasen
Open source ↗
ESO
Ruist — Time for integration (ESO 2018:3, in Swedish)
Open source ↗
National Institute of Economic Research
KI Special Study 117 — fiscal effects of migration
Open source ↗
Brå
Brottsförebyggande rådet — statistikportalen
Open source ↗

Definitions

How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover

Forecast, scenario, simulation & own calculation: A forecast is an official projection (e.g. Statistics Sweden's population projection). A scenario is a hypothetical development under stated assumptions. A simulation computes a scenario with a given model. An own calculation is sverigefakta.com's own arithmetic — always clearly labelled.
Per capita / per 1,000 / per 100,000: Normalising an absolute number by population size, so municipalities of different sizes can be compared. Shootings, for example, are usually reported per 100,000 inhabitants.

Frequently asked questions

Short answers to what is most often discussed

No. It is an educational simulator with informed assumptions to illustrate order of magnitude. A forecast is an official projection from Statistics Sweden or similar — that is not what we do.

Logical next steps if you want to understand the background

What if — test alternative models

Educational model — not a forecast. Every figure is a derived approximation based on Ruist ESO 2018:3 plus the model's own assumptions (listed below). Constants and formulas are simplifications meant to illustrate orders of magnitude, not exact outcomes. Ranges show the spread between groups with high and low integration potential.

Policy sliders

Annual volume (asylum/family)25,000

Share of labour migration20 %

Integration requirements (language/work)Medium

Deportation for serious crimeLow

Disabled: crime and its costs are not part of the model, so the slider would not change any result.

Full municipal cost coverage

Otherwise: today's flat-rate grant

Time horizon10 year

Annual net cost

1,2 mdkr

→ 0 mdkrvs baseline

Range: 0,8 mdkr – 1,6 mdkr

Genomsnittlig offentligfinansiell nettokostnad per år för en årskull, med Ruists livstidsgenomsnitt per person och år.

Cost per person

49 352 kr

→ 0 krvs baseline

Range: 33 644 kr – 64 312 kr

Average net cost per received person and year.

Municipal imbalance

0,2 mdkr

→ 0 mdkrvs baseline

Gap between the state flat-rate grant and municipalities' actual spending.

Crime costs

No verified data point

The socioeconomic costs of crime are not included in this calculation and are therefore not quantified here.

Cumulative 10 year

12,3 mdkr

→ 0 mdkrvs baseline

En årskull över vald tidshorisont, med konstant livstidsgenomsnitt per år. Ej flera årskullar.

Employment after 5 years (derived)

49.7 %

→ +0.0 pevs baseline

Modelled employment share 5 years after arrival (percentage points). A derived measure — not direct SCB statistics.

Disclaimer

About the deportation slider: crime and its costs are not included in the calculation, so the slider is disabled.

About the tool

What if — assumptions, formulas and limitations

Method, assumptions & limitations

Base value: Ruist (ESO 2018:3): a refugee with average integration potential is projected to cost on average SEK 74,000 net per year over their lifetime in Sweden (58.3 years on average); SEK 53,000 for the group with the highest and SEK 94,000 for the group with the lowest integration potential. The range is a difference between groups, not an uncertainty interval.
Employment share: contributes about +30,000 SEK/year net per person according to KI Special Study 117. The simulator weights this in.
Deportation slider: crime and crime costs are not included in the calculation, so the slider does not affect any result.
Crowding and integration factors are simplified multipliers chosen to illustrate direction, not to forecast exact amounts.
Constants: cohort size, arrival year, relative weights of cost items — documented in each KPI card.
What it does not compute: long-term labour market effects on natives, macro cycles, housing market, security costs, generational effects.
All outputs are labelled scenario / own calculation. No political interpretation is made.

Primary sources

Agencies and research institutions behind this page

agencies/institutions

reports & studies

primary datasets

All primary sources

SCB
Statistiska centralbyrån — statistikdatabasen
Open source ↗
ESO
Ruist — Time for integration (ESO 2018:3, in Swedish)
Open source ↗
National Institute of Economic Research
KI Special Study 117 — fiscal effects of migration
Open source ↗
Brå
Brottsförebyggande rådet — statistikportalen
Open source ↗

Definitions

How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover

Forecast, scenario, simulation & own calculation: A forecast is an official projection (e.g. Statistics Sweden's population projection). A scenario is a hypothetical development under stated assumptions. A simulation computes a scenario with a given model. An own calculation is sverigefakta.com's own arithmetic — always clearly labelled.
Per capita / per 1,000 / per 100,000: Normalising an absolute number by population size, so municipalities of different sizes can be compared. Shootings, for example, are usually reported per 100,000 inhabitants.

Frequently asked questions

Short answers to what is most often discussed

No. It is an educational simulator with informed assumptions to illustrate order of magnitude. A forecast is an official projection from Statistics Sweden or similar — that is not what we do.

Logical next steps if you want to understand the background

What if — test alternative models

What if — assumptions, formulas and limitations

Method, assumptions & limitations

Primary sources

All primary sources

Definitions

Frequently asked questions

Related topics

Other countries

What if — test alternative models

What if — assumptions, formulas and limitations

Method, assumptions & limitations

Primary sources

All primary sources

Definitions

Frequently asked questions

Related topics