Simulator
What if — test alternative models
Here you can test how the fiscal net effect changes under different policy choices. The simulator has three presets: Continue on the current path, Danish model (stricter family reunification) and High integration requirements + low volume. You can also move the sliders freely.
Policy sliders
Full municipal cost coverage
Otherwise: today's flat-rate grant
Annual net cost
1,2 mdkr
→ 0 mdkrvs baseline
Range: 0,8 mdkr – 1,6 mdkr
Total net fiscal effect per year for this year's intake cohort.
Cost per person
49 352 kr
→ 0 krvs baseline
Range: 33 644 kr – 64 312 kr
Average net cost per received person and year.
Municipal imbalance
0,2 mdkr
→ 0 mdkrvs baseline
Gap between the state flat-rate grant and municipalities' actual spending.
Crime costs
No verified data point
The socioeconomic costs of crime are not included in this calculation and are therefore not quantified here.
Cumulative 10 year
12,3 mdkr
→ 0 mdkrvs baseline
Net effect summed over the chosen time horizon.
Employment after 5 years (derived)
49.7 %
→ +0.0 pevs baseline
Modelled employment share 5 years after arrival (percentage points). A derived measure — not direct SCB statistics.
Disclaimer
This is an educational approximation, not an official forecast. Volume assumptions are qualified guesses meant to illustrate orders of magnitude. Cost per person is an average — real outcomes vary with age, origin, education and year of arrival. The results reflect the model's assumptions, not settled political conclusions.
About the deportation slider: Brå 2021:9 documents differences in registered crime suspicion, not that deporting serious offenders causally lowers total crime costs. The slider models an assumed effect (formula: × (1 − 0.35·deportation)) to illustrate orders of magnitude — not an established causal relationship.
About the tool
What if — assumptions, formulas and limitations
An educational simulator, not an official forecast. The tool computes a simplified fiscal net effect under different policy choices — volume, employment share, integration requirements, deportation — using reference values from Ruist (ESO 2018:3) and KI Special Study 117.
Method, assumptions & limitations
- Base value: Ruist's 74,000 SEK/year (ESO 2018:3) — average net cost for refugee migration. Uncertainty range 53,000–94,000 SEK/year is shown as a band.
- Employment share: contributes about +30,000 SEK/year net per person according to KI Special Study 117. The simulator weights this in.
- Deportation slider: models an assumed effect (× (1 − 0.35·deportation)) to illustrate order of magnitude — Brå 2021:9 documents differences in registered suspicion, not a causal relationship.
- Crowding and integration factors are simplified multipliers chosen to illustrate direction, not to forecast exact amounts.
- Constants: cohort size, arrival year, relative weights of cost items — documented in each KPI card.
- What it does not compute: long-term labour market effects on natives, macro cycles, housing market, security costs, generational effects.
- All outputs are labelled scenario / own calculation. No political interpretation is made.
Primary sources
Agencies and research institutions behind this page
2
agencies/institutions
3
reports & studies
2
primary datasets
All primary sources
SCB
Statistiska centralbyrån — statistikdatabasen
Open source ↗ESO
Ruist — Costs and revenues of migration (ESO 2018:3)
Open source ↗National Institute of Economic Research
KI Special Study 117 — fiscal effects of migration
Open source ↗Brå
Brottsförebyggande rådet — statistikportalen
Open source ↗
Definitions
How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover
- Forecast, scenario, simulation & own calculation
- A forecast is an official projection (e.g. Statistics Sweden's population projection). A scenario is a hypothetical development under stated assumptions. A simulation computes a scenario with a given model. An own calculation is sverigefakta.com's own arithmetic — always clearly labelled.
- Per capita / per 1,000 / per 100,000
- Normalising an absolute number by population size, so municipalities of different sizes can be compared. Shootings, for example, are usually reported per 100,000 inhabitants.
Frequently asked questions
Short answers to what is most often discussed
Related topics
Logical next steps if you want to understand the background