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What happened to Sweden?

Population

Demographic and cultural change

No other OECD country in peacetime has changed its population composition as fast as Sweden since 1990. That change underlies many of the other investigations on this site.

Three decades in numbers

Foreign-born(SCB)

1990
9 % (790,000)
2024
20.5 % (2.18 m)

Foreign background (UF+UU)(SCB)

1990
13 %
2024
27 % (2.87 m)

Share under 18 with foreign background(SCB)

1990
approx. 15 %
2024
approx. 33 %

Largest foreign-born group(SCB)

1990
Finland
2024
Syria

After 2012 the inflow is driven mainly by asylum and family reunification from the Middle East, Africa and Asia. In 2015 Sweden received ~163,000 asylum applications in a single year — the largest refugee wave in Swedish history — and the Migration Agency granted roughly 150,000 residence permits in 2016, equivalent to one of Sweden's larger cities.

SCB 2024: in 50 of 290 municipalities the share with a foreign background was above the national average; Botkyrka had the highest share (62 %).

Parallel societies emerge

The 2023 situation report from the Police lists 59 vulnerable areas where 550,000 Swedes live — more residents than Gothenburg. On average 71% of residents in these areas have a foreign background, and in individual areas up to 85%. Criminal networks have "significant influence on the local community". The concept did not exist in the 1990s. Together, the areas form a population larger than Sweden's second-largest city.

What the change looks like going forward

SCB's 2024 population projection assumes continued immigration around historical averages. Under central assumptions, the share with foreign background grows to around 33% by 2040. In the three largest urban municipalities, the majority of children under 18 already have a foreign background.

Ruist's analysis suggests that it is not immigration itself that is the problem, but the speed, composition and failed integration that make the costs persist across generations.

Joakim Ruist, economist, University of Gothenburg (2018)

Read the full investigation of how Sweden has changed.

Back to the overview →

The question this page answers

How fast has Sweden's population composition changed since 1990 — and what does SCB's own definition show today?

At a glance

Key figures — the most important numbers on this page

Foreign-born 2024

20.5 %

SCB (~2.18 m)

Foreign background 2024

27 %

SCB (~2.87 m)

Foreign-born 1990

9 %

SCB (baseline)

Projection 2040

≈ 33 %

SCB central assumption

Asylum applications 2015

163,000

Migration Agency

TFR 2024

1.43

SCB — lowest ever

What does the data show?

Objective observations — not interpretations

  • The share of foreign-born has more than doubled since 1990 (9 % → 20.5 %).
  • The share with a foreign background (SCB definition) reached 27 % in 2024.
  • The largest foreign-born group shifted from Finland (1990) to Syria (2024).
  • SCB formally introduced the 'foreign background' definition in 2003 — comparisons with 1990 rely on the older foreign-born series.
  • SCB's 2024 projection suggests the share reaches ~33 % by 2040 under central assumptions.
  • Fertility (TFR) has fallen to 1.43 (2024) — the lowest level on record.

Method note
All level figures are SCB series as of 31 December. The 1990 comparison uses the foreign-born series; SCB's 'foreign background' category was formalised in 2003. The 2040 projection is SCB's central alternative with wide uncertainty bands. Own calculations are labelled as such; the rest is raw data from primary sources.

Definitions

How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover

Population
Persons registered in Sweden as of 31 December. Counted by SCB via the population register.
Population register
The Swedish Tax Agency's register of where a person lives. The basis for nearly all Swedish demographic statistics.
Foreign-born
Person born outside Sweden regardless of citizenship. SCB has maintained the series since the early 20th century.
Foreign background (SCB)
Foreign-born OR Swedish-born with two foreign-born parents. Formalised by SCB in 2003.
Net migration
Immigrants minus emigrants in a given year. Distinct from 'granted residence permits' (Migration Agency).
Population growth
Natural increase (births minus deaths) plus net migration. Since the 1980s migration has driven most of Sweden's growth.
Cohort
Group of persons born in the same year or arriving in the same period. Used to track outcomes over time.
Age structure
The distribution of the population across age groups. Often shown as a population pyramid.
Dependency ratio
Persons aged 0–19 plus 65+ per 100 persons aged 20–64. Measures how large a share of the population is supported by the working-age group.
Fertility (TFR)
Average number of children per woman. Sweden's TFR was 1.43 in 2024 (SCB) — the lowest ever recorded.
Mortality
Deaths per 1,000 residents in a year. Used in population projections alongside fertility and migration.
Migration
Persons moving across a national border. Split into immigration and emigration. SCB registers migration via the population register; the Migration Agency counts residence-permit decisions.

Primary sources

Agencies and research institutions behind this page

5

agencies/institutions

7

reports & studies

4

primary datasets

Frequently asked questions

Short answers to what is most often discussed

SCB's definition since 2003: foreign-born OR Swedish-born with two foreign-born parents. Children with one foreign-born and one Swedish-born parent are classified as Swedish background.

Logical next steps if you want to understand the background

Sources for this page

The data comes from official primary sources.