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What happened to Sweden?A data-driven storyChapter 1 of 6

Sweden then and now

One connected chapter — 30–50 years of Swedish development on a single page. No prior knowledge required.

read time
6 min read
charts
10
primary sources
8

After this chapter you will understand

  • How much has Sweden changed — measured in official statistics?
  • When did the shift begin, and which areas moved first?
  • What does the change mean — and what remains to understand?

In five minutes

What will you find here?

Behind the figures below stand Swedish authorities and the OECD. Nothing is calculated here.

indicators
10
charts
16
primary sources
8
period
1975–2025
municipalities covered
290

Overview

How much has Sweden changed?

We start with three figures. Each comes from an official series — and each is of the magnitude usually described as a generational shift.

  • Crime

    Fatal shootings per year

    1996

    ≈ 8

    2024

    44

    19962024

  • Demographics

    Share with foreign background

    1990

    13 %

    2024

    27 %

    19902024

  • School

    PISA — reading literacy

    2000

    516

    2022

    487

    20002022

Sources: Brå, SCB, OECD/Skolverket. Deep dives per row further down.

Timeline

When did the shift begin?

This change did not happen all at once. Six reference points between 1975 and 2025 show when the curves began to move.

  1. 1975

    Welfare peak. 8% foreign-born. Low crime.

  2. 1985

    Sweden top 5 in OECD. Fertility 1.7. No PISA yet.

  3. 1995

    EU accession. ~8 fatal shootings/year. 11% foreign-born.

  4. 2005

    PISA reading 507. 12.4% foreign-born. Tax burden 47% of GDP.

  5. 2015

    Record asylum year (162,877). 17.0% foreign-born at year-end.

  6. 2025

    20.5% foreign-born. 44 fatal shootings (2024). 59 vulnerable areas.

A timeline only shows when. The next question is what — which areas actually changed.

Ten indicators

Which areas changed?

Ten indicators, same format. Grouped into three themes so the breadth becomes visible.

Safety and crime

Crime

Fatal shootings per year

1996

≈ 8

2024

44

The number of people shot dead has risen sharply since the mid-2000s. 2022 peaked at 63. 2024 was 44 — higher than any year before 2016.

Note: Official reporting of lethal shootings begins in 2017 (Brå). Earlier years are retrospective compilations from the Police and criminological research; comparisons backwards are indicative, not officially confirmed.

The Nordics on the same measure · 2023

  • SE4 / milj
  • NO0.4 / milj
  • DK0.8 / milj
  • FI0.5 / milj

Lethal firearm violence per million residents.

Source: Brå · Nordic police report 2024

Source: BråRead more →

Bombings

Completed bombings

2018

< 30

2025

189

Sweden has developed a bombing environment absent from the rest of the Nordics. 2023 peaked at 149 detonations; 2025 (prel.) is at 189.

Note: The Police series counts completed detonations. Brå counts reported bombings incl. attempts and preparation — two different measures that must not be added or compared directly.

The Nordics on the same measure · 2025

  • SE189
  • NO0
  • DK4
  • FI1

Completed detonations, absolute numbers.

Source: Police · Nordic compilation

Source: PolisenRead more →

Safety

Women feeling unsafe out late

2006

13 %

2024

30 %

In 2006 13% of women felt unsafe walking home late. By 2024 the figure is 30% — more than double.

Note: The measure comes from Brå's NTU (Swedish Crime Survey). NTU's methodology and sample were revised in 2017 — levels before and after are not fully comparable, but the direction of change is robust.

Source: Brå NTURead more →

Vulnerable areas

Police 'vulnerable areas'

2015

53

2025

59

The concept did not exist in 1990. In 2015 the Police listed 53 areas. By 2025 it is 59, after a methodological revision.

Note: Police classification. The methodology was last revised in the 2025 assessment; levels before and after revisions are not fully comparable. The concept did not exist before 2015.

Source: PolisenRead more →

Economy and school

Economy

OECD rank, GDP per capita

1970

4:a

2024

18:e

In 1970 Sweden ranked 4th in the OECD for GDP per capita. By 2024 it is 18th. Sweden has kept growing — but others have grown faster.

Note: GDP per capita in current prices and purchasing power parity (PPP). Rank varies slightly between OECD, IMF and World Bank depending on the PPP adjustment.

Source: OECDRead more →

School

PISA — reading literacy

2000

516

2022

487

In 2000 Swedish 15-year-olds scored 516 in reading. By 2022 the same measure is 487 — below the OECD average and one of the largest drops in the OECD.

Note: PISA has been conducted since 2000. Sweden's 2015 round excluded a higher share of pupils than the OECD average; the National Agency for Education has restored strict sampling from 2018.

The Nordics on the same measure · 2022

  • SE487
  • NO477
  • DK489
  • FI490

Mean score, reading literacy.

Source: OECD PISA 2022

Source: OECD / SkolverketRead more →

Housing

Completed dwellings per year

1975

≈ 110 000

2024

≈ 32 000

Housing completions have swung wildly — from ~110,000/year in the mid-1970s to a low of 12,000 (1998) and 55,000 (2023). A long-term shortfall against population growth.

Note: Boverket and Statistics Sweden count completed dwellings in new construction. Net additions (incl. conversions and demolitions) is a different measure that runs about 10% higher.

Source: SCB / BoverketRead more →

Population and society

Demographics

Share with foreign background

1990

13 %

2024

27 %

In 1990 13% of the population had a foreign background. By 2024 it is 27% — one of the fastest peacetime shifts in the OECD.

Note: Statistics Sweden defines foreign background as either foreign-born or born in Sweden to two foreign-born parents. Having one foreign-born parent does not count.

Source: SCBRead more →

Trust

High interpersonal trust

1996

62 %

2025

57 %

The share saying that most people can be trusted has fallen from around 62% (1996) to 57% (2025) per the SOM Institute. The drop is largest in vulnerable neighbourhoods.

Note: SOM Institute question: share answering 7–10 on a 0–10 scale on whether people in general can be trusted. OECD Trust uses a different question and is not directly comparable.

The Nordics on the same measure · 2023

  • SE57 %
  • NO71 %
  • DK74 %
  • FI68 %

SE from SOM (0–10, share 7–10); Nordics from ESS/WVS — indicative comparison.

Source: SOM 2023 · ESS/WVS 2022–23

Source: SOM-institutetRead more →

Fertility

Total fertility rate

1990

2,14

2024

1,45

Children per woman has dropped from 2.14 (1990) to 1.45 (2024) — the lowest figure recorded in Sweden.

Note: Total fertility rate (TFR) — expected children per woman if the age cohort's fertility stayed constant. Replacement level is about 2.1.

The Nordics on the same measure · 2024

  • SE1.45
  • NO1.4
  • DK1.5
  • FI1.26

Source: Eurostat 2024

Source: SCBRead more →

Geography

Where did it change most?

This was not an average change. Where it happened matters at least as much as how much.

The change is uneven. Big-city vulnerable areas, industrial towns in Bergslagen and parts of Skåne have moved fastest.

Small rural municipalities remain close to 1990s levels. The national average hides two parallel Swedens.

Open the map →Compare municipalities →

Takeaways

What does this mean?

What can be said once the picture is assembled?

The breadth

The change appears across several independent series at once — crime, safety, school results, economic ranking and demographics. When multiple measures gathered by different agencies move together, it is rarely a measurement artefact.

The pace

Some series accelerate over the past decade (fatal shootings, bombings, unsafe feelings among women). Others have moved more slowly across thirty years (PISA, trust, OECD ranking).

The geography

The national average hides the split. Big-city vulnerable areas and a few industrial towns carry a disproportionate share; small rural municipalities remain close to 1990s levels.

What remains to understand?

  • Why did the curves begin to move when they did?
  • Which decisions and reforms preceded the change — and which followed?

Sources

Every figure on this page cites its primary source in the indicator card. The composite is compiled by Sverigefakta.

Summary

Key takeaways

  • Five indicators have broken trend since the mid-2010s: fatal shootings, bombings, vulnerable areas, PISA and foreign background.
  • The change is geographically uneven — the national average hides two parallel Swedens.
  • The sources are Swedish authorities and the OECD. No single actor owns the whole picture.
  • What the change means is a matter of interpretation. That it happened is not.

Further reading

Sources for this page

The data comes from official primary sources.

Report an error on this pageSupport Sverigefakta

Recommended reading next →

Chapter 3Unread

How did we get here? (1975 → today)

7 minRead