The Swedish trust anomaly
Sweden has historically been one of the highest-trust societies in the world. According to SOM Institute data, around 62% of Swedes in the mid-1990s expressed high interpersonal trust. By 2023, that figure had fallen to about 55% — still high internationally, but the decline is unusually fast and the gap between regions has grown sharply.
| Mått | 1996 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| High interpersonal trust (national)(SOM) | 62 % | 55 % |
| High trust in vulnerable areas(SOM/SCB) | ~55 % | ~30 % |
| High trust in low-density areas(SOM) | 65 % | 63 % |
Why trust matters for the welfare state
Bo Rothstein and the Quality of Government Institute at the University of Gothenburg have shown that high-trust societies sustain redistribution more easily. Trust is what makes voters accept taxes when they cannot directly observe how every krona is spent. When trust falls, support for universal welfare falls with it.
The Nordic welfare model is built on trust. If we destroy that trust, we have not just a crime problem — we have a problem with the entire model.
The geography of falling trust
The national decline is modest. The local decline in vulnerable areas is dramatic. SCB's Living Conditions Survey shows that residents of police-classified vulnerable areas report trust levels closer to those found in Southern Europe than to those of the rest of Sweden — and the gap is widening, not closing.
Sources
Read the full investigation of how Sweden has changed.
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