How to read this
Data in context
How to read this
The charts below show what the numbers say — not an interpretation. Where data point in different directions (e.g. stable trust but rising insecurity) we show both series rather than pick a narrative.
Estimated Muslim share of Sweden's population in 2010 and 2016 (Pew 2017, estimate — there are no official religion statistics). Pew's 2050 scenarios (zero 11.1 % / medium 20.5 % / high 30.6 % migration) are conditional calculations and are not shown as part of the series. — 2010–2016 (%)
- 2010: 4.6 %; 2016: 8.1 %
The Nordics — same metric
Human consequence
Illustrative persona — not a documented observation
A municipal demographer tracking population by district.
Then
- Religious life was dominated by the Church of Sweden and free churches.
- Municipal planning did not account for religious dietary or burial needs.
Now
- Municipal planning now handles religious accommodations — halal meals, burial grounds, gender-separated swimming — as issues.
- Halal in school meals, gender-separated swim times, religious free schools.
- Teenage girls in vulnerable areas report honour-based control (illustration; see the sources section for what studies actually measure).
In closing
In Pew Research Center's 2017 calculation, Muslims would make up 20.5 per cent of Sweden's population in 2050 in the medium scenario and 11.1 per cent if all migration stopped. The outcome depends mainly on the assumptions about future migration.
The medium scenario assumes continued regular migration but no new refugee flows after mid-2016. In that scenario Sweden's share is the second-highest in Europe after Cyprus (the whole island in Pew's geography); Germany is at 10.8 %. In the high scenario Sweden's share is 30.6 %. The scenarios are conditional calculations, not observations or forecasts. Source: Pew Research Center, Europe's Growing Muslim Population (2017).
Sources for this page
The data comes from official primary sources.
Pew Research Center · Irregular
Pew Research Center — Europe's Growing Muslim PopulationUppskattad muslimsk befolkningsandel i Sverige samt scenarier till 2050
Latest data point · Source published
Read the full investigation of how Sweden has changed.
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