What are the uncertainties?

Four main sources: (1) religion is not registered — everything relies on assumptions; (2) secularisation across generations is hard to measure in Sweden due to limited data; (3) mixed families and converts are not captured by the country-of-origin method; (4) projections are especially uncertain because they combine assumptions about fertility, migration and affiliation.

What is the trend over time?

From a few thousand people in the 1960s, to labour migration from Turkey and the Balkans in the 1970s–80s, to larger asylum migration from Iran, Iraq, Somalia and Afghanistan from the 1980s, and finally the Syrian refugee wave 2014–2016. Net migration has fallen markedly after 2016 and 2022 (SCB).

How does the age distribution look?

People with roots in Muslim-majority countries are on average younger than the total population. The gap is largest at ages 0–24 and shrinks toward 65+ (SCB). This alone affects projections even at zero net migration.

How does geographic distribution look?

Concentration in the Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö metropolitan regions plus some medium-sized cities with sustained reception (Södertälje, Örebro, Uppsala, Botkyrka). SCB's DeSO data give a more detailed picture at neighbourhood level.

How do generations differ?

The second generation is the fastest-growing in absolute numbers. Fertility, education and religious practice converge over time toward the majority population (Delmi, SCB), but the pace of convergence varies between groups and is estimated differently across studies.

How do international comparisons look?

Per Pew 2017: Sweden ~8.1 %, France ~8.8 %, Belgium ~7.6 %, the Netherlands ~7.1 %, Germany ~6.1 %, UK ~6.3 %, Denmark ~5.4 %. All are estimates with the same methodological caveats — comparisons are possible but not exact.

What does the projection to 2050 show?

Pew (2017) gave three scenarios for Sweden: low (zero migration) ≈ 11 %, medium (labour migration without asylum) ≈ 21 %, high (asylum as 2014–2016) ≈ 31 %. Actual migration has since fallen, likely placing the outcome below Pew's high scenario. The projection is an arithmetic exercise, not a forecast.

Why do different researchers get different results?

Because their assumptions differ: how fast does the second generation secularise? What share of people from e.g. Bosnia or Turkey count as Muslims? How are mixed families treated? Different but reasonable choices yield different but reasonable results — hence the ranges.

Is country of birth the same as religion?

No. Many people born in Muslim-majority countries are not religiously practising or not Muslim at all (Assyrian Christians from Iraq, Jews from Iran, secular people from Turkey, and others). Conversely, converts and second-generation individuals may identify as Muslim without being foreign-born. The country-of-origin method is an approximation, not a count.

Islam in Sweden — from 1 % to ≈ 11 % in 35 years

What happened to Sweden?

Religion & demographics

Islam in Sweden — from 1 % to ≈ 11 % in 35 years

The Muslim share of Sweden's population has risen from ≈ 1 % (1990) to ≈ 11 % (2025, our extrapolation). Pew's 2050 scenarios span 11–31 %.

The Nordics — same metric

Andel muslimer (% av befolkning), Norden — Pew 2017 + uppdatering

2010–2025 · % · Norden

Andel muslimer (% av befolkning), Norden — Pew 2017 + uppdatering · % · 2010–2025 · Norden
År	Norge	Danmark	Finland	Sverige
2 010	3	4,1	0,8	4,6
2 016	5,7	5,4	2,7	8,1
2 025	7,5	6,5	3,5	11

Source:

Sources for this page

The data comes from official primary sources.

Pew Research Center · Irregular
Pew Research Center — Europe's Growing Muslim Population
Uppskattad muslimsk befolkningsandel i Sverige samt scenarier till 2050
Latest data point 31 Dec 2016 · Source published 29 Nov 2017

Read the full investigation of how Sweden has changed.

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The question this page answers

What do public statistics and research-based estimates show about the demographic development of Sweden's Muslim population?

At a glance

Key figures — the most important numbers on this page

Pew 2016 — Muslim share

8.1 %

Pew Research (2017): Europe's Growing Muslim Population. Built on country of origin + assumptions on affiliation.

Pew 2050 — scenarios

11–31 %

Low (zero migration) / medium (labour) / high (continued 2014–2016). Scenarios — not forecasts.

Muslim-majority countries of origin

~40 countries

Statistics Sweden data: Syria, Iraq, Iran, Somalia, Afghanistan, Turkey, Bosnia and others.

Age structure

Young

People with roots in Muslim-majority countries are on average younger than the total population (SCB).

Geographic concentration

Metropolitan

Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö hold the largest share — in line with immigration overall.

Fastest growing

Generation 2

Sweden-born with two foreign-born parents from Muslim-majority countries is the fastest-growing part (SCB).

Fertility

TFR convergence

Foreign-born fertility converges over time towards Sweden-born (SCB, Delmi).

Religion

Not registered

SCB does not register religion. All ‘Muslim figures’ are estimates, not enumerations.

What does the data show?

Objective observations — not interpretations

Sweden has no register-based enumeration of Muslims. Demographic figures rely on country of origin combined with assumptions on affiliation — they measure ‘people with roots in Muslim-majority countries’, not religious practice.
Estimates from Pew (2011, 2017) and the World Religion Database yield different figures depending on assumptions. A spread of several percentage points is normal and reflects method uncertainty, not conflicting data.
Trend over time: clear rise since the 1970s, driven by labour migration (Turkey, Balkans), asylum migration (Iran, Iraq, Somalia, Afghanistan) and the Syrian refugee wave 2014–2016. Net migration fell after 2016 and again in 2022.
Age structure: people with roots in Muslim-majority countries are on average younger than the total population — which alone affects projections even at zero net migration.
Geography: concentration in the Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö metropolitan regions, plus some medium-sized cities with long-standing reception (Södertälje, Örebro, Uppsala).
International: Sweden's share is close to the Western European average (Pew 2017). Countries with longer migration history (France, the Netherlands) are somewhat higher; Denmark and Finland are somewhat lower.

Method note
All figures in this hub are estimates. We use three methods, reported separately: (1) Pew Research (2011, 2017) — internationally comparable, built on country of origin and assumptions; (2) SCB register data (UtlSvBakgGrov) for people born in Muslim-majority countries or whose parents are — measures background, not religion; (3) World Religion Database (Brill/Boston University) — academic synthesis. Projections (Pew 2050) are scenarios based on assumptions about migration, fertility and secularisation — not forecasts. A person born in Turkey, Iran or Bosnia is not automatically Muslim; a Sweden-born person may be. We mark clearly when a number is an estimate or our own calculation.

Definitions

How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover

Demography: The study of populations — their size, composition and change over time.
Estimate: A figure built on assumptions or models, not from an actual count in registers.
Projection: Calculation of a future population given assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration. Not a forecast.
Forecast: Assessment of a likely outcome. Projections present several scenarios without picking one as most likely.
Foreign-born: SCB definition: a person born in a country other than Sweden.
Foreign background: SCB definition: foreign-born or Sweden-born with two foreign-born parents.
Second generation: People born in Sweden with two foreign-born parents.
Country of origin: Country where the person (or parents) was born. Registered by SCB.
Muslim-majority country: Country where a majority of the population per Pew/WRD identifies as Muslim.
Population structure: Distribution of the population by age, sex, origin and other traits.
Age structure: The population's distribution across age groups. Affects projections even without migration.
Fertility: Number of children per woman in childbearing ages. Usually measured as TFR (total fertility rate).
TFR convergence: That fertility in immigrant groups over generations converges toward the receiving country's rate. Documented for most groups in Sweden (SCB, Delmi).
Migration flow: Number of people entering or leaving the country in a period.
Net migration: Difference between immigrants and emigrants over a period.
Scenario: A set of assumptions underlying a projection (e.g. ‘low migration’, ‘high migration’).
Citizenship: Legal membership of a state. Distinct from country of origin and religion.
Ethnicity: Shared cultural/linguistic identity. Not registered by Swedish public authorities.
Religious identity: Self-perceived affiliation with a religion. Not registered by Swedish public authorities; measured via surveys.

Primary sources

Agencies and research institutions behind this page

agencies/institutions

reports & studies

primary datasets

Frequently asked questions

Short answers to what is most often discussed

Mainly by combining SCB data on country of origin with assumptions about the Muslim share in each origin country. Pew (2011, 2017) and the World Religion Database use similar methods with different assumptions about secularisation, intermarriage and the second generation. The result is always a range, not an exact figure.

Logical next steps if you want to understand the background

Islam in Sweden — from 1 % to ≈ 11 % in 35 years

Andel muslimer (% av befolkning), Norden — Pew 2017 + uppdatering

Sources for this page

At a glance

What does the data show?

Definitions

Primary sources

Frequently asked questions

Mosques

Culture & values — overview

Islam in Sweden — from 1 % to ≈ 11 % in 35 years

How to read this

The Nordics — same metric

Human consequence

Sources for this page

At a glance

What does the data show?

Definitions

Primary sources

Frequently asked questions

Related topics

Mosques

Culture & values — overview