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Granskning · Pensioner & demografi

Inte skulden — demografin

Sveriges skulder är låga internationellt — oavsett om man räknar centrala statsskulden (okonsoliderad, 19 % av BNP den 31 december 2025) eller Maastrichtskulden (hela offentliga sektorn, 35,1 % av BNP 2025, EU27-snitt 81,7 %). Den ekonomiska utmaningen ligger någon annanstans: en växande försörjningsbörda när andelen äldre ökar snabbare än arbetskraften.

35,1 %

Maastrichtskulden 2025 (hela offentliga sektorn, konsoliderad, EU-mått, Eurostat gov_10dd_edpt1). Den okonsoliderade statsskulden var 1 262,4 mdkr den 30 juni 2026 och motsvarade 19 % av BNP den 31 december 2025 — ännu lägre. Båda måtten är låga internationellt (EU27-snitt 81,7 % Maastricht 2025). Skuldnivån är inte den bindande restriktionen — försörjningskvoten är det.

Vi följer datan även mot populära myter

I debatten påstås ofta att Sverige har stora skuldproblem. Statistiken säger motsatsen — både för statsskulden (centrala staten) och Maastrichtskulden (hela offentliga sektorn). Att vi rapporterar detta tydligt är en konsekvens av webbplatsens regel: vi följer siffrorna, även när de pekar åt ett oväntat håll.

Demografisk försörjningskvot — historik och framskrivning

1960–2070 · kvot (0–19 år + 65+ ÷ 20–64 år) · Sverige

Försörjningskvot = (0–19 år + 65+) ÷ 20–64 år; stiger när färre i arbetsför ålder ska försörja fler. Värden till och med 2024 är utfall, därefter SCB:s huvudalternativ i framskrivningen.

Demografisk försörjningskvot — historik och framskrivning: Försörjningskvot moves from 0.74 (1980) to 0.89 (2070) — up 0.15 kvot. Full values are available in the data table below (1960–2070, Sverige).

Demografisk försörjningskvot — historik och framskrivning · kvot (0–19 år + 65+ ÷ 20–64 år) · 1960–2070 · Sverige
ÅrFörsörjningskvot
19800.74
19900.73
20000.71
20100.73
20200.76
20240.77
20300.79
20400.84
20500.85
20600.87
20700.89

Series break 2024: Sista utfallsåret — värden därefter är SCB:s framskrivning (huvudalternativet). (SCB, Sveriges framtida befolkning 2025–2070)

Method: Försörjningskvoten beräknas som antalet personer 0–19 år plus 65 år och äldre dividerat med antalet personer 20–64 år. Historiken bygger på SCB:s befolkningsstatistik; värden efter 2024 är SCB:s huvudalternativ i befolkningsframskrivningen och beror på antaganden om fruktsamhet, dödlighet och migration.

Source: SCB — Statistikdatabasen, BE0101 Demografisk försörjningskvot (FkvotHVD), år 2000–2025 (accessed 2026-07-31) · SCB — Sveriges framtida befolkning 2025–2070 (Demografiska rapporter 2025:2), huvudalternativet (accessed 2026-07-31)

Pensionssystemet — kort förklarat

Det svenska systemet har två huvuddelar: inkomstpension (baserad på livsinkomst, avgiftsfinansierad) och garantipension (skattefinansierat grundskydd för dem med låg eller ingen inkomstpension).

För full garantipension krävs 40 års försäkringstid i Sverige från 16 års ålder fram till pension. Färre år ger proportionellt lägre belopp. Det betyder att personer med kort vistelsetid får behovsprövat äldreförsörjningsstöd snarare än full garantipension — se Per uppehållstillstånd.

Vad försörjningskvoten gör med ekonomin

Båda skuldmåtten är låga. Problemet ligger inte i skuldsidan utan i demografin: andelen äldre växer snabbare än arbetskraften.

När kvoten ökar måste samma arbetskraft finansiera fler i vård, skola och pension. Det kan mötas på fyra sätt: högre arbetade timmar (sysselsättning, arbetad tid), högre produktivitet, högre skatteuttag eller lägre offentliga åtaganden. Inget av dessa är gratis — och de är politiska val, inte automatiska följder av demografin.

What the data does NOT say

  • — Framskrivningar är osäkra. SCB anger flera alternativ; siffrorna i grafen är huvudalternativet i årgången Sveriges framtida befolkning 2025–2070. SCB publicerade 2026-04-16 en nyare årgång (2026–2070) som ännu inte är inarbetad här.
  • — Kurvans värden är avrundade till två decimaler och historiken före 2000 är hämtad från SCB:s befolkningsstatistik; enskilda årsvärden kan därför avvika marginellt från Statistikdatabasens tabell FkvotHVD (som börjar år 2000).
  • — Försörjningskvoten säger inget om produktivitet eller faktiskt arbetade timmar — bara om åldersstruktur.
  • — Den säger inte heller hur kostnaden fördelas mellan stat, region, kommun och individ.
  • — Statsskuld (Riksgälden, centrala staten) och Maastrichtskuld (hela offentliga sektorn, EU-mått) mäter olika saker — håll isär dem.
  • — Implicita framtida pensions- och vårdåtaganden syns inte i något av skuldmåtten.

See also

Per uppehållstillstånd →Långsiktiga välfärdskostnader →Vad immigrationen kostar →

The question this page answers

How is Sweden's pension system affected by demographics, employment and migration according to authorities and research?

At a glance

Key figures — the most important numbers on this page

Demographic dependency ratio 2024

≈ 76

SCB — (0–19 + 65+) per 100 aged 20–64. Denominator: total population.

Projected dependency ratio 2070

≈ 90

SCB Population Projection 2025–2070, main scenario. Projection, not forecast.

Pension contribution of PGI

18.5 %

16 % income pension + 2.5 % premium pension. Pensionable income up to 8.07 IBB (2026).

Guarantee pension — minimum insurance time

3 yrs

Three years of insurance time in Sweden is required for any guarantee pension; full guarantee pension requires 40 years of insurance between age 16 and retirement age. The basic-protection age follows the reference age with a three-year lag.

Employment rate foreign-born 20–64 (2024)

≈ 71 %

SCB LFS — compared with ≈ 84 % for Swedish-born. Employment is the central variable.

Remaining life expectancy at 65 (women)

≈ 83 yrs

SCB 2024. Men ≈ 84 total, women ≈ 86. Increases the pressure on retirement age via the life-income principle.

Reference age 2026

67 yrs

From 2026 the reference age is raised to 67. Basic-protection age follows with a 3-year lag.

EU ageing costs 2070

≈ 9 %

EU Ageing Report 2024 — projected rise in age-related public spending as a share of GDP in EU27.

What does the data show?

Objective observations — not interpretations

  • The pension system is designed as a pay-as-you-go system with an individual life-income principle. Today's contributions fund today's pensions, while each individual's future pension is determined by contributions paid in. The system is therefore sensitive both to the age structure (dependency ratio) and to employment in the working-age population.
  • Employment affects the system more than population size alone. A growing working-age population does not automatically produce higher contributions — it requires the group to actually work and declare pensionable income. Differences in employment rates between groups therefore feed directly into system financing.
  • The effect of migration on the pension system is conditional. Labour immigration with a high employment rate strengthens the system in the short and medium term. Refugee immigration with a lower initial employment rate provides a weaker initial contribution but can become neutral or positive over time depending on integration. The effects differ and cannot be reduced to a single number.
  • The balancing mechanism (the 'brake') is activated when the system's assets fall below its liabilities. It has been triggered in 2010, 2011 and 2014, causing the indexation of the income pension to be lowered. Future activation depends on the AP funds' returns, employment developments and wage growth.
  • Long-term projections are conditional on assumptions. The Pensions Agency's and SCB's projections rest on assumptions about fertility, mortality, migration, employment, wage growth and returns. Small changes in the assumptions can shift the 2070 system balance by several per cent of GDP.

Method note
The analysis strictly separates (1) the autonomous pension system — income and premium pensions, funded by contributions on earned income and separated from the state budget via the AP funds — from (2) the basic protection — guarantee pension, housing supplement and elderly support, funded from general taxation and budgeted under UO 11. The former is driven mainly by contribution inflows (employment × wages) and age structure; the latter by how many lack an income pension and by residence requirements. The demographic dependency ratio is a pure age measure and says nothing about the actual labour force — the economic dependency ratio (non-employed per employed) captures this better but is rarely reported. Projections over 40–60 years (SCB, Pensions Agency, EU Ageing Report) always report sensitivity analyses for fertility, migration, employment and mortality. Migration variables carry more uncertainty than the rest and are normally reported in three scenarios.

Definitions

How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover

Income pension
Pay-as-you-go public pension based on lifetime income. Financed by a 16 % contribution on pensionable income. The largest part of the public pension for most people.
Premium pension
Funded part of the public pension. Financed by a 2.5 % contribution on pensionable income invested in chosen funds or AP7 Såfa. The outcome depends on returns.
Guarantee pension
Tax-funded basic protection for those with low or no income pension. Full level requires 40 years of insurance from age 16 to retirement age; fewer years give a proportional deduction.
Pensionable income (PGI)
Income from work and certain benefits that generates pension rights, up to the ceiling of 8.07 income base amounts (2026). Set annually by the Tax Agency.
Pension contribution
Total contribution of 18.5 % of PGI — 16 % to income pension and 2.5 % to premium pension. Paid via employer contributions, self-employed contributions and general pension contribution.
Life-income principle
Foundational principle that the pension is determined by contributions paid in over the whole working life — not by the best years. Makes employment rate and wage level decisive for the individual pension.
Balancing mechanism (the brake)
Automatic mechanism activated when the system's assets (contribution asset + buffer funds) fall below its liabilities. Lowers the indexation of income pensions and pension balances until balance is restored.
Reference age
Reference age that governs the earliest pension take-up, the start of the guarantee pension and the end of LAS employment protection. Linked to life expectancy — 67 years from 2026.
Pension system sustainability
The system's ability to meet its long-term commitments without triggering the brake or requiring rule changes. Measured via the balance ratio, the asset ratio and long-term projections.
Dependency burden
Number of non-employed persons (children + elderly + unemployed + sick) per employed person. Economically relevant measure of actual dependency, not merely age structure.
Demographic dependency ratio
Number aged 0–19 and 65+ per 100 aged 20–64. Pure age measure; says nothing about who actually works. Rises from ≈ 76 (2024) to ≈ 90 (2070) per SCB.
Net contributor
Individual whose taxes and contributions to the public system exceed what is directed back in consumption and transfers the same year. Age-dependent — most people are net contributors during working age.
Net recipient
Individual whose publicly funded consumption and transfers exceed taxes and contributions the same year. Children and pensioners are by definition net recipients in a cross-section.
Labour force participation
Share of the population 15–74 (or 20–64) that is either employed or seeking work. Distinguished from the employment rate, which covers only those actually working.
Economic dependency burden
Economic measure of how many individuals each employed person must finance via taxes and contributions — includes children, pensioners and the non-employed of working age.
Supplementary pension (tilläggspension)
Transitional benefit from the old ATP scheme, paid to persons born in 1937 or earlier (and partly to cohorts 1938–1953). Phased out over time as older cohorts pass.
AP funds
Buffer funds (AP1–AP4 and AP6) inside the income-pension system, smoothing differences between contribution inflows and pension outflows over time. The Seventh AP Fund (AP7) is the default fund inside the premium pension.
Balance ratio
The ratio of system assets (contribution asset + buffer funds) to liabilities. When the ratio falls below 1.0 the brake is triggered. Published annually by the Pensions Agency.
Contribution base
The aggregate pensionable income in the economy in a given year. Determined by employment × hours worked × hourly wage under the ceiling of 8.07 income base amounts.

Primary sources

Agencies and research institutions behind this page

7

agencies/institutions

6

reports & studies

4

primary datasets

Frequently asked questions

Short answers to what is most often discussed

Neither automatically. The effect depends on the group's employment rate and wage level over time. Labour immigration with high employment strengthens the system; refugee immigration with lower initial employment provides a weaker initial contribution but can become neutral or positive over time. The long-term sustainability of the pension system is determined by employment and age structure in the whole population — not by migration as such.

Related topics

Logical next steps if you want to understand the background

Sources for this page

The data comes from official primary sources.

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@misc{sverigefakta_2026_en_demographicspensions,
  author       = {Sverigefakta.com},
  title        = {Sverigefakta},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://sverigefakta.com/en/demographics-pensions}},
  note         = {Dataset v2026.2, accessed 2026-08-14}
}
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