Inte skulden — demografin

What does the data show?

Objective observations — not interpretations

• The pension system is designed as a pay-as-you-go system with an individual life-income principle. Today's contributions fund today's pensions, while each individual's future pension is determined by contributions paid in. The system is therefore sensitive both to the age structure (dependency ratio) and to employment in the working-age population.
• Employment affects the system more than population size alone. A growing working-age population does not automatically produce higher contributions — it requires the group to actually work and declare pensionable income. Differences in employment rates between groups therefore feed directly into system financing.
• The effect of migration on the pension system is conditional. Labour immigration with a high employment rate strengthens the system in the short and medium term. Refugee immigration with a lower initial employment rate provides a weaker initial contribution but can become neutral or positive over time depending on integration. The effects differ and cannot be reduced to a single number.
• The balancing mechanism (the 'brake') is activated when the system's assets fall below its liabilities. It has been triggered in 2010, 2011 and 2014, causing the indexation of the income pension to be lowered. Future activation depends on the AP funds' returns, employment developments and wage growth.
• Long-term projections are conditional on assumptions. The Pensions Agency's and SCB's projections rest on assumptions about fertility, mortality, migration, employment, wage growth and returns. Small changes in the assumptions can shift the 2070 system balance by several per cent of GDP.

Definitions

How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover

Income pension

Pay-as-you-go public pension based on lifetime income. Financed by a 16 % contribution on pensionable income. The largest part of the public pension for most people.

Premium pension

Funded part of the public pension. Financed by a 2.5 % contribution on pensionable income invested in chosen funds or AP7 Såfa. The outcome depends on returns.

Guarantee pension

Tax-funded basic protection for those with low or no income pension. Full level requires 40 years of insurance from age 16 to retirement age; fewer years give a proportional deduction.

Pensionable income (PGI)

Income from work and certain benefits that generates pension rights, up to the ceiling of 8.07 income base amounts (2026). Set annually by the Tax Agency.

Pension contribution

Total contribution of 18.5 % of PGI — 16 % to income pension and 2.5 % to premium pension. Paid via employer contributions, self-employed contributions and general pension contribution.

Life-income principle

Foundational principle that the pension is determined by contributions paid in over the whole working life — not by the best years. Makes employment rate and wage level decisive for the individual pension.

Balancing mechanism (the brake)

Automatic mechanism activated when the system's assets (contribution asset + buffer funds) fall below its liabilities. Lowers the indexation of income pensions and pension balances until balance is restored.

Reference age

Reference age that governs the earliest pension take-up, the start of the guarantee pension and the end of LAS employment protection. Linked to life expectancy — 67 years from 2026.

Pension system sustainability

The system's ability to meet its long-term commitments without triggering the brake or requiring rule changes. Measured via the balance ratio, the asset ratio and long-term projections.

Dependency burden

Number of non-employed persons (children + elderly + unemployed + sick) per employed person. Economically relevant measure of actual dependency, not merely age structure.

Demographic dependency ratio

Number aged 0–19 and 65+ per 100 aged 20–64. Pure age measure; says nothing about who actually works. Rises from ≈ 76 (2024) to ≈ 90 (2070) per SCB.

Net contributor

Individual whose taxes and contributions to the public system exceed what is directed back in consumption and transfers the same year. Age-dependent — most people are net contributors during working age.

Net recipient

Individual whose publicly funded consumption and transfers exceed taxes and contributions the same year. Children and pensioners are by definition net recipients in a cross-section.

Labour force participation

Share of the population 15–74 (or 20–64) that is either employed or seeking work. Distinguished from the employment rate, which covers only those actually working.

Economic dependency burden

Economic measure of how many individuals each employed person must finance via taxes and contributions — includes children, pensioners and the non-employed of working age.

Supplementary pension (tilläggspension)

Transitional benefit from the old ATP scheme, paid to persons born in 1937 or earlier (and partly to cohorts 1938–1953). Phased out over time as older cohorts pass.

AP funds

Buffer funds (AP1–AP4 and AP6) inside the income-pension system, smoothing differences between contribution inflows and pension outflows over time. The Seventh AP Fund (AP7) is the default fund inside the premium pension.

Balance ratio

The ratio of system assets (contribution asset + buffer funds) to liabilities. When the ratio falls below 1.0 the brake is triggered. Published annually by the Pensions Agency.

Contribution base

The aggregate pensionable income in the economy in a given year. Determined by employment × hours worked × hourly wage under the ceiling of 8.07 income base amounts.

Frequently asked questions

Short answers to what is most often discussed