Analysis · 9 min read
SFI, jobs and the years that passed — a cohort analysis
Seven years after residence permit, the employment rate among 2015 refugees is still below 60%. What happened to the establishment mission?
Published 2026-07-15
The 2015 cohort — seven years later
SCB register data: Of the 71,700 who received refugee residence permits in 2015, 58% were employed by 2022 (age 20–64). Men: 66%. Women: 49%.
Comparison: Among native-born in the same age group, the employment rate was 82% in 2022. The gap is thus 24 percentage points after seven years.
The establishment mission
The establishment programme (2010–2022) covered 24 months with establishment benefit and mandatory Swedish tuition (SFI). The National Audit Office's 2023 review (RiR 2023:15) found only 32% of participants were in unsubsidised work after 24 months.
SFI results: 42% of those enrolled in SFI in 2018 had reached C-level (pass) within three years (National Agency for Education, 2022). Women with short education had the lowest completion rate: 24%.
What explains the weak job outcome?
Education at arrival: Among 2015–2017 refugees, 32% had less than 9 years of schooling, 25% upper-secondary, 25% post-secondary (SCB).
Regional concentration: 68% of the 2015 cohort settled or moved to municipalities with already high unemployment among foreign-born (SCB).
Women's participation: The share of women in employment grows slowly — from 32% (year 3) to 49% (year 7). Slower than the OECD average for comparable groups.
What does Denmark do differently?
Danish Ministry of Employment follow-up: Employment rate among 2015 refugees is 51% after seven years — lower than Sweden. The difference lies in policy choices: Denmark has lower benefit levels but faster labour market entry via the IGU programme.
Sweden's Etableringsjobb (started 2024) is inspired by the Danish IGU. It is too early to evaluate the effect.