ProjectionModelledPartially reproducible
Avslutande extrapolationer på WTF-sidorna
Answer the closing question 'if the trend continues' on the theme pages with a mechanical projection of the series shown.
- Data → operation → output
- The series shown on each theme page, with a stated start and end year → A linear extrapolation of the slope of the most recent trend period to the target year. The result is given as a range and is labelled in the text as a mechanical extrapolation. → Temasidornas avslutande avsnitt
- Primary sources
- Assumptions
- That the slope of the most recent period continues unchanged — an assumption with no source support.
- Observed vs modelled
- All years up to the series' last published year are observed. The target-year value is entirely modelled.
- Uncertainty
- No probability and no confidence interval. The range expresses the sensitivity of the slope, not uncertainty in a statistical sense.
- Limitations
- A linear slope does not capture turning points; where later outcomes point in another direction, this is noted in the same paragraph.
- The extrapolations are free text per page and are not automatically recalculated when the series is updated.
- Scope of validity
- Each theme page's series, geography and period.
- Reproducibility
- The slope can be recalculated from the published series, but the value is written as text and is not generated by code, so there is no deterministic test that ties the text to the series.
- Version
- 1.0 · last verified 2026-09-15
- Code/data reference
src/data/wtf-pages.ts, src/data/wtf-pages-extra.ts