Model estimateModelledPartially reproducible
What-if-simulator (volym, arbetskraftsandel, integrationskrav)
Illustrate how the public-finance net and the municipal gap change with different assumptions about the volume and composition of immigration.
- Data → operation → output
- Annual volume; Labour-force share; Integration requirement; Municipal cost coverage; Horizon → Per person: labour-force share × (+SEK 30,000) + asylum share × (Ruist anchor × integration factor × congestion factor). Annual net = volume × per person. Municipal gap = asylum volume × SEK 12,000 when the flat rate applies. → /what-if
- Assumptions
- Ruist's observed net flows from 2015 are assumed to persist.
- An integration requirement lowers the per-person cost by up to 30% — an assumed elasticity, not an estimated relationship.
- High volumes raise the per-person cost by up to 15%.
- Observed vs modelled
- Only Ruist's range (SEK 53,000–94,000) is published. The elasticities are model assumptions.
- Calibration
- The anchor is set to Ruist's midpoint value of SEK 74,000 per person per year.
- Uncertainty
- Reported as a low/mid/high outcome from Ruist's published range.
- Limitations
- The socioeconomic costs of crime are not included in the calculation and are therefore not quantified here.
- The composition index for the second generation has been removed: it lacked a verifiable weighting method.
- Is an educational tool, not a forecast.
- Scope of validity
- Sweden, non-EU/EEA immigration, 1–20 year horizon.
- Reproducibility
- The arithmetic is deterministic and tested, but the elasticities cannot be reproduced from a published source.
- Version
- 2.0 (P1: brottskostnad och generationsindex borttagna) · last verified 2026-09-14
- Code/data reference
src/data/whatif-model.ts