Model estimateModelledPartially reproducible
What-if — own parameter assumptions
Show parameter sensitivity for cost and an approximate municipal gap, not estimated effects of policy requirements.
- Data → operation → output
- Volume 1,000–60,000/year, labour share 0–0.8, demand 0–1, coverage yes/no, horizon 1–40 years. The deportation slider is disabled and excluded. → C=w×(−30,000)+(1−w)×R×(1−0.3d)×[1+0.15×min(1,V/60,000)]; annual cost=V×C/10⁹, cumulative=annual cost×n. Municipal gap=V×(1−w)×12,000/10⁹ or 0 with full coverage. Positive = cost. → /what-if
- Primary sources
- Assumptions
- R=74,000, low/high 53,000/94,000 are Ruist’s lifetime annual averages, not an observed annual flow in 2015. The price basis is not explicitly evidenced.
- −30,000, 12,000, elasticities 30/15% and the employment formula 38+35w+18d−6×min(1,V/60,000) are own assumptions, not NIER/Statistics Sweden/SKR estimates.
- Observed vs modelled
- All simulator outputs are own hypothetical calculations. Ruist’s group range is not an uncertainty interval.
- Uncertainty
- Low/mid/high vary the source anchor, not the probability of a policy outcome.
- Limitations
- Cumulative means simple n×annual amount, not cohort accumulation or NPV. The employment output is a percentage share, not a percentage-point change.
- Scope of validity
- Hypothetical composition and constant flow; SEK/person/year, bn SEK/year and undiscounted bn SEK over 1–40 years.
- Reproducibility
- Arithmetic, signs, zero volume, full coverage and extremes are tested; assumptions are not source-estimated.
- Version
- 2.1 · last verified 2026-10-11
- Code/data reference
src/data/whatif-model.ts