Forecast / scenarioModelledReproducible — verified in test
Dependency ratio and separate Pew scenarios
Show a Statistics Sweden-derived age ratio through 2060 and Pew’s conditional Sweden scenarios for 2050; not LU2023 lifetime net values or own origin scenarios.
- Data → operation → output
- Statistics Sweden population by single-year age, extraction 2026-10-09; Pew Sweden 2016/2050: 8.1% and 11.1/20.5/30.6%. → Ratio=(number aged 0–19 + number aged 65+)/number aged 20–64, two decimals. Pew is presented as two literal rows without interpolation or own future points. → /makro-framtid-2060, /framskrivning-ursprung-2050, /framtidsscenarier
- Primary sources
- Assumptions
- Statistics Sweden’s national projection applies. Pew: no migration / regular migration without asylum / continued 2014–2016 refugee flows plus regular migration.
- Observed vs modelled
- Historical Statistics Sweden counts are observations, later counts projections; the ratio is derived. Pew 2016 is an estimate and 2050 a conditional scenario.
- Uncertainty
- The scenarios have no stated probabilities and use different populations/measures.
- Limitations
- The age ratio is not a count of workers/dependants or tax burden. Pew does not measure religious practice. The series must not be added.
- Scope of validity
- Sweden nationally, Statistics Sweden 1990–2060 and Pew Sweden 2016/2050; ratio and percent respectively, no price years.
- Reproducibility
- E1’s exact age sums and Pew points are reused and retested.
- Version
- 2.1 · last verified 2026-10-11
- Code/data reference
src/data/makro-framtid.ts, src/data/framskrivning-ursprung-2050.ts