ProjectionModelledReproducible — verified in test
Kostnadsresan — linjär framskrivning 2023–2040
Extend the published net-contribution series for the foreign-born beyond the last outcome year as an arithmetic exercise, clearly separated from the actual outcome.
- Data → operation → output
- The last published outcome year in the net-contribution series (2022) → value(year) = round(value(2022) × (1 + 0.01 × (year − 2022)), 1) for the years 2023–2040. No other input is used. → Kostnadsresan (nettobidragets historia)
- Primary sources
- Assumptions
- A flat mark-up of 1 percent per year. The mark-up does not follow from the source but is a chosen calculation parameter.
- Observed vs modelled
- 1983–2022 is published outcome data. 2023–2040 is entirely modelled and drawn as a separate dashed series.
- Uncertainty
- The projection has no confidence interval and no probability. It says nothing about the actual development after 2022.
- Limitations
- A constant percentage change captures neither the business cycle, compositional change nor policy changes.
- Must not be read as a forecast and must not be compared with published forecasts.
- Scope of validity
- Sweden, the foreign-born group, the years 2023–2040.
- Reproducibility
- A deterministic formula with no hidden parameters; reproduced in tests from the last outcome year.
- Version
- 1.0 · last verified 2026-09-15
- Code/data reference
src/components/cost-journey-timeline.tsx