Forecast / scenarioModelledPartially reproducible
Cost journey — linear arithmetic exercise to 2040
Show an own linear arithmetic exercise for 2023–2040 from NIER’s evidenced +SEK 6bn in 2022; older unbound history points are not shown.
- Data → operation → output
- NIER table 1: +SEK 6bn for all foreign-born in 2022. Older unbound billion-SEK anchors are not shown in this figure. → round(6 × [1 + 0.01 × (year−2022)], 1), years 2023–2040; +SEK 7.1bn in 2040. Simple linear increase, not compounding. → Kostnadsresan (nettobidragets historia)
- Primary sources
- Assumptions
- Own fixed increase of 1% of the 2022 level each year, not a NIER assumption or inflation adjustment.
- Observed vs modelled
- 2022 is a published cross-section calculation, not observed payments. 2023–2040 is an own arithmetic exercise; older unbound history points have been withdrawn from the figure.
- Uncertainty
- No probability or confidence interval for the projection.
- Limitations
- NIER workbook D1/D21 uses percent of GDP, not billion SEK. The older 1983–2021 series is not shown because its billion-SEK anchors could not be bound to the original. The 2022 core and 2023–2040 exercise are preserved.
- Scope of validity
- Sweden, all foreign-born; bn SEK/year from a 2022 base, no verified future price development.
- Reproducibility
- Table/chart/export share COST_JOURNEY_SERIES; +6 in 2022 and +7.1 in 2040 are verified. Withdrawn history is documented separately.
- Version
- 2.1 · last verified 2026-10-11
- Code/data reference
src/components/cost-journey-timeline.tsx; src/lib/models/cost-journey.ts