Model estimateModelledReproducible — verified in test
Illustrative annuity simulator with NIER as a methodological reference
Show sensitivity to own assumptions about annual net and present value; not reproduce NIER results or its lifecycle model.
- Data → operation → output
- Gap 0–30 percentage points, working-age share 0.3–0.9, rate 0–6%, horizon 5–60 years and own tax, transfer and age parameters. → e=clamp(0.82−gap/100,0,1); A=−age factor×55,000. Annual net=w×[e×tax−(1−e)×transfer]+(1−w)×A×0.6+A. NPV=annual net×[1−(1+r)^−n]/r; at r=0 the factor is n. → Metodsimulatorn i KI-avsnitten
- Primary sources
- Assumptions
- All presets including 82%, SEK 55,000 and factor 0.6 are own illustrative assumptions without a NIER source table.
- Observed vs modelled
- No simulated value is an observation. The comparison baseline is Preset 1, not NIER’s published 2022 net.
- Uncertainty
- Parameter sensitivity, not a statistical uncertainty interval.
- Limitations
- Constant annual flow and simplified age weighting, not a full cohort model. No price year is evidenced for the presets.
- Scope of validity
- Illustrative aggregate person; SEK/person/year and SEK/person in NPV. Not a local observation.
- Reproducibility
- simulateKi is tested for both presets, r=0, signs and extreme permitted inputs. Reproducible arithmetic does not imply source calibration.
- Version
- 2.1 · last verified 2026-10-11
- Code/data reference
src/data/ki-metod-model.ts