Model estimateModelledReproducible — verified in test
KI-metodsimulator (offentligfinansiellt netto)
Let the reader see how NIER's result changes when assumptions about the employment gap, discount rate and time horizon are changed.
- Data → operation → output
- User-selected assumptions (employment gap, discount rate, horizon, tax and transfer levels); NIER's published defaults for 2022 and 2025 → Annual net per person = tax paid(employment) − transfers − consumption of public services (age-weighted). Present value = the sum of annual net amounts discounted at the chosen rate over the chosen horizon. → Metodsimulatorn i KI-avsnitten
- Primary sources
- Assumptions
- Domestic employment rate of 82% as a reference.
- Constant tax and transfer levels over the horizon.
- The age composition is summarised in a single factor rather than a full cohort model.
- Observed vs modelled
- The defaults reflect NIER's published results; anything the user changes is modelled and not published by NIER.
- Calibration
- The defaults are calibrated so that the NIER-2022 mode reproduces NIER's published order of magnitude.
- Uncertainty
- The result is very sensitive to the discount rate and the employment gap. No confidence interval can be given.
- Limitations
- Does not replace NIER's full register-based model.
- Cannot be used for individual municipalities or countries of birth.
- Scope of validity
- Sweden, the whole public sector, long-run average per person.
- Reproducibility
- The formula sits in a pure function, `simulateKi`, and gives the same output for the same input in tests.
- Version
- 1.0 · last verified 2026-09-14
- Code/data reference
src/data/ki-metod-model.ts