Forecast / scenarioModelledReproducible — verified in test
Municipal projection of foreign background (Model 1)
Show illustrative municipal history and future outside available SCB observations; not observed municipal statistics or a Statistics Sweden forecast.
- Data → operation → output
- Municipal share with foreign background (born abroad or two foreign-born parents), BE0101Q2; first/last available year. → model1Series: early level max(2, first share × 0.35), S-curve t²(3−2t); future towards min(88, last share × 1.8 + 5) using 1−(1−t)^1.4. Gaps are linearly interpolated; rounded to 0.1 percentage point. → /karta, /lokal-framskrivning, /befolkningspyramid
- Primary sources
- Assumptions
- Curve shape, ceiling and hash-based fallback anchor of 8–35 percent are own visualisation assumptions, not Statistics Sweden parameters.
- Observed vs modelled
- Only an existing municipality/year value is observed. History outside the series, gaps and future are modelled; age/sex filters scale using the latest breakdown.
- Calibration
- First and last Statistics Sweden points are anchors where available; otherwise an explicit model fallback anchor is used.
- Uncertainty
- No probability or statistical error interval.
- Limitations
- Scaling age/sex to other years is not an observed subgroup series. Missing observations never become observed zero values.
- Outside the fixed model anchors 1924–2124 the endpoint is extended constantly; the display window rolls with the calendar year.
- Scope of validity
- Municipal shares in percent; model anchors 1924–2124, demonstration only. No price basis.
- Reproducibility
- Deterministic arithmetic; source anchors and model values remain separate in distinct lookups.
- Version
- 2.1 · last verified 2026-10-11
- Code/data reference
src/lib/demographics.ts