ProjectionModelledReproducible — verified in test
Kommunframskrivning av utländsk bakgrund (Modell 1)
Fill in years outside Statistics Sweden's observed series in the map's timeline (1924–2124).
- Data → operation → output
- Statistics Sweden's municipal series on foreign background; Latest observed year per municipality → Before the first observed year: an S-curve towards a historical base level. After the last observed year: a growth curve with a cap. Within the series: linear interpolation between observed points. → /karta, /lokal-framskrivning, /befolkningspyramid
- Primary sources
- Assumptions
- The municipality's historical trend continues, dampened towards a cap.
- Observed vs modelled
- Every year is labelled in the interface as observed, modelled history, modelled future or modelled gap.
- Calibration
- The curve is anchored to the municipality's observed Statistics Sweden values.
- Uncertainty
- No probability distribution. The projection is deterministic and illustrative.
- Limitations
- Is not Statistics Sweden's official population projection.
- Municipalities without observed values get a deterministic fallback that is labelled as modelled.
- Scope of validity
- 290 municipalities, the years 1924–2124.
- Reproducibility
- A pure function with no randomness; the same municipality and year always give the same value in tests.
- Version
- 1.0 · last verified 2026-09-14
- Code/data reference
src/lib/demographics.ts