Interactive · scenarios · Ruist range
Adjust the assumptions yourself
The main lever is integration potential, using Ruist's range of SEK 53,000–94,000 per refugee and year. Time period and discount rate are supplements for comparison with NIER 2025.
The question this page answers
How much does the estimated net fiscal contribution depend on the assumptions we choose?
At a glance
Key figures — the most important numbers on this page
Ruist range per refugee/year
53–94 kSEK
Ruist ESO 2018:3.
NIER cross-section 2022
≈ −74 kSEK/yr
NIER Special Study 117.
Base discount rate
1.5 %
NIER assumption.
Character
Scenario
Not a forecast. Assumptions decide.
Terminology — read this first
Prognos (forecast) = the researcher's best guess of what is most likely. Framskrivning (projection) = a mechanical extrapolation of population/finances under stated assumptions. Scenario = one specific combination of assumptions, without a claim of likelihood. Känslighetsanalys (sensitivity analysis) = varying one assumption at a time to see how much it moves the outcome. This page is a scenario tool with sensitivity analysis — not a forecast.
Per refugee · chosen integration potential
−74 000 kr/ year
Average lifetime net cost per refugee according to Ruist 2018 (medium integration potential).
Time period
2015 is the peak of refugee immigration (Ruist). 2022 is NIER's most recent cross-section.
Discount rate (lifetime NPV)
NIER uses 1.5 % as its base assumption. A lower rate produces larger absolute present values.
Integration potential (Ruist range)
High integration potential = SEK 53,000/year, low = SEK 94,000/year in net cost per refugee.
Based on NIER 2025 and Ruist 2018 assumptions. The model is educational: NPV is scaled proportionally to the discount rate from NIER's 1.5 % base.
Estimated net contribution · chosen scenario
−43,1 mdkr
−49,1 mdkr compared with NIER's 2022 cross-section (+6 bn SEK, all foreign-born).
Note: this comparison is an illustration, not apples-to-apples. The model varies the refugee group using Ruist's per-person range; NIER's 2022 figure covers a different population and method.
Refugees (annual)
−51,1 mdkr
Other foreign-born (annual)
+8 mdkr
Ruist 2018 level for 2015. NIER 2022 reports +28 bn SEK for the same group.
Refugees — NPV per person
−1 000 000 kr
Other — NPV per person
+1 902 000 kr
What does the data show?
Objective observations — not interpretations
- The model shows consequences of three levers — not a forecast: change an assumption, the outcome moves.
- Integration potential (Ruist's 53 000–94 000 SEK/year per refugee) drives more of the spread than the discount rate.
- The annual figure is a cross-section for the chosen population; the NPV is a per-person lifetime figure — not interchangeable.
- Other foreign-born contribution is held constant at the published NIER/Ruist value — only the refugee group varies.
Frequently asked questions
Short answers to what is most often discussed
Related topics
Logical next steps if you want to understand the background
Projection by origin 2050
SCB's main alternative and two alternative scenarios for population composition.
Macro projection 2060
Dependency ratio and long-run macro variables under different assumptions.
Projection by municipality
Observed history versus scenario, broken down by municipality.
History 1983–2022
The observed time series the scenarios build on.
By residence permit
The main driver behind integration potential.
What if?
Alternative policy choices for the same period.
Sources: KI Specialstudie 117 · Ruist ESO 2018:3. Amounts are in current prices for each base year (Ruist 2018 and NIER 2022) and are not inflation-adjusted to today's price level. Annual figures are per year; NPV values are accumulated lifetime present values per person.
Sources for this page
The data comes from official primary sources.
ESO · event-driven
ESO 2018:3 — Tid för integration (Joakim Ruist)Flyktinginvandringens arbetsmarknadsetablering och fiskala kalkylram (Ruist)
Latest data point · Source published
KI · Irregular
Specialstudie 117 — Invandrades nettobidrag till de offentliga finanserna 1983–2022Nettobidrag till offentliga finanser per person och år, efter grupp (endast KI:s egna beräknade värden)
Latest data point · Source published
Cite this page
Content and our own calculations are CC BY 4.0. Please also cite the primary source.
Sverigefakta.com. (2026). Sverigefakta. Retrieved 2026-08-22, from https://sverigefakta.com/en/future-scenarios
Sverigefakta.com (2026) Sverigefakta. Available at: https://sverigefakta.com/en/future-scenarios (Accessed: 2026-08-22).
Sverigefakta.com, "Sverigefakta", https://sverigefakta.com/en/future-scenarios (accessed 2026-08-22).
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author = {Sverigefakta.com},
title = {Sverigefakta},
year = {2026},
howpublished = {\url{https://sverigefakta.com/en/future-scenarios}},
note = {Dataset v2026.2, accessed 2026-08-22}
}https://sverigefakta.com/en/future-scenarios