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Macro · future scenarios

Macro & future 2060

What do the official long-term scenarios say? The dependency ratio is rising fast, hospital beds have fallen 84% since 1990, overcrowding is 5–7× higher among non-European-born, and the Fiscal Policy Council projects a negative net fiscal effect from MENA/Africa asylum.

Sources: SCB BFP 2024, LU2023 (SOU 2023:85), Fiscal Policy Council 2023, National Board of Health and Welfare, Boverket.

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The question this page answers

Vad följer för svensk offentlig ekonomi om nuvarande demografiska och migrationsmässiga antaganden består till 2060?

At a glance

Key figures — the most important numbers on this page

Dependency ratio 2024

0.77

SCB BFP 2024.

Dependency ratio 2060

0.93

Main alternative — scenario.

Hospital beds/1000 (2024)

≈ 2.1

Lowest in the Nordics. Socialstyrelsen.

Horizon

1990–2060

History plus projection.

Observation vs. framskrivning — så läser du sidan

Historiska värden (1990–2024) är faktiskt uppmätta. Värden för 2030, 2040, 2050 och 2060 är SCB:s huvudalternativ och LU2023 — beräkningar av vad som följer om dagens antaganden består. Samma antaganden ligger till grund för den kommunala framskrivningen till 2050.

How we measureDependency ratio →

Dependency ratio 1990→2060

Dependents (0–19 and 65+) per person of working age (20–64). SCB main scenario BFP 2024.

1990

Dependency ratio
0,71

2000

Dependency ratio
0,71

2010

Dependency ratio
0,74

2020

Dependency ratio
0,76

2030

Dependency ratio
0,83

2040

Dependency ratio
0,88

2060

Dependency ratio
0,93

Hospital beds per 1000 inhabitants

National Board of Health and Welfare + OECD. Sweden has the lowest hospital bed density in the Nordics despite population growth.

1990 *

Vårdplatser per 1000
12,4

2000

Vårdplatser per 1000
3,6

2010

Vårdplatser per 1000
2,7

2020

Vårdplatser per 1000
2,1

2024

Vårdplatser per 1000
1,9

* 1990-värdet inkluderar långvård och psykiatri som senare klassats om — inte direkt jämförbart med senare år.

Overcrowding (norm 2)

Share (%) overcrowded by norm 2 — bedrooms per person besides kitchen/living room. Boverket/SCB.

Native-born

Share
7 %

Born in Nordics/EU

Share
11 %

Born outside EU

Share
33 %

Born in Syria, Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq

Share
49 %

Fiscal net effect per migrant group

Genomsnittligt livstidsnetto per individ, SEK. Ruist ESO 2018:3 för MENA/Afrika (asyl+anhörig); övriga grupper är approximationer utifrån Långtidsutredningen 2023 och Finanspolitiska rådet 2023, omräknade till livstidsvärden. Alla värden i samma enhet — variationen inom respektive grupp är stor.

Nordics

Lifetime net (SEK)
+2 600 000

EU/EEA

Lifetime net (SEK)
+1 400 000

Other Western countries

Lifetime net (SEK)
+2 400 000

MENA/Africa (asylum/family)

Lifetime net (SEK)
−2 400 000

Definitions

How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover

Dependency ratio
Persons aged 0–19 and 65+ per person of working age (20–64). Measures how many dependants each employed person supports.
Projection vs. forecast
Projection = mechanical calculation under assumptions. Forecast = the researcher's best estimate of what is most likely. This page is a projection.
Cohort component method
SCB's standard demographic method: age the population one year at a time and apply assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration.
Lifetime net (NPV)
Discounted present value of a person's total public net across the life course. Requires assumptions about discount rate, retirement age and tax levels for decades.
Sensitivity analysis
Varies one assumption at a time to show how sensitive the outcome is. Handled in the separate /future-scenarios page.
Definition break (hospital bed)
The Ädel reform 1992 and the psychiatry reform 1995 moved long-term and psychiatric care to other providers. The series before 2000 is not directly comparable with later years.

Frequently asked questions

Short answers to what is most often discussed

Ett scenario. SCB BFP 2024 huvudalternativ visar vad som följer om nuvarande antaganden om fruktsamhet, dödlighet och migration består. Långtidsutredningen 2023 gör motsvarande antagande om ekonomisk tillväxt och sysselsättning. En 'prognos' skulle kräva att vi kände till framtida politiska beslut.

Related topics

Logical next steps if you want to understand the background

Primary sources

Sources for this page

The data comes from official primary sources.

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@misc{sverigefakta_2026_en_macrofuture2060,
  author       = {Sverigefakta.com},
  title        = {Sverigefakta},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://sverigefakta.com/en/macro-future-2060}},
  note         = {Dataset v2026.2, accessed 2026-08-15}
}
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