Macro · future scenarios
Macro & future 2060
What do the official long-term scenarios say? The dependency ratio is rising fast, hospital beds have fallen 84% since 1990, overcrowding is 5–7× higher among non-European-born, and the Fiscal Policy Council projects a negative net fiscal effect from MENA/Africa asylum.
Sources: SCB BFP 2024, LU2023 (SOU 2023:85), Fiscal Policy Council 2023, National Board of Health and Welfare, Boverket.
Dependency ratio 1990→2060
Dependents (0–19 and 65+) per person of working age (20–64). SCB main scenario BFP 2024.
| Year | Dependency ratio |
|---|---|
| 1990 | 0.71 |
| 2000 | 0.71 |
| 2010 | 0.74 |
| 2020 | 0.76 |
| 2030 | 0.83 |
| 2040 | 0.88 |
| 2060 | 0.93 |
Hospital beds per 1000 inhabitants
National Board of Health and Welfare + OECD. Sweden has the lowest hospital bed density in the Nordics despite population growth.
| 1990 | 12.4 |
| 2000 | 3.6 |
| 2010 | 2.7 |
| 2020 | 2.1 |
| 2024 | 1.9 |
Overcrowding (norm 2)
Share (%) overcrowded by norm 2 — bedrooms per person besides kitchen/living room. Boverket/SCB.
| Native-born | 7 % |
| Born in Nordics/EU | 11 % |
| Born outside EU | 33 % |
| Born in Syria, Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq | 49 % |
Fiscal net effect per migrant group
Average lifetime effect on public finances per individual, based on Joakim Ruist (Delmi) and the Fiscal Policy Council. Large within-group variation.
| Group | Lifetime net (SEK) |
|---|---|
| Nordics | +65 000 |
| EU/EEA | +35 000 |
| Other Western countries | +60 000 |
| MENA/Africa (asylum/family) | −2 400 000 |
Primary sources
- SCB BFP 2024 — Sveriges framtida befolkning 2024–2070 ↗
- Långtidsutredningen 2023 (SOU 2023:85) ↗
- Finanspolitiska rådet 2023 — Svensk finanspolitik ↗
- Socialstyrelsen — Vårdplatser och beläggningsgrad ↗
- Boverket — Trångboddhet och bostadsmarknad ↗
- Joakim Ruist — Refugee immigration to Sweden: fiscal costs ↗