Local reality · data-driven
Local reality & projection
School segregation 1998–2023, Statistics Sweden’s projection to 2050 per municipality, and trends in violence and threats against public services.
Sources: National Agency for Education, Statistics Sweden BFP 2024, BRÅ NTU 2024, Work Environment Authority.
Last updated: View changelog
School segregation 1998–2023
The Education Agency’s segregation index for compulsory school has risen from 41 (1998) to 59 (2023). The share of pupils with foreign background has at the same time almost tripled.
| Year | Segregation index | Share of pupils with foreign background |
|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 41 | 11.0 % |
| 2003 | 44 | 13.4 % |
| 2008 | 47 | 16.1 % |
| 2013 | 52 | 20.3 % |
| 2018 | 56 | 26.8 % |
| 2023 | 59 | 30.9 % |
Projection to 2050 — selected municipalities
Statistics Sweden’s main scenario for 2050. ‘Foreign background’ = persons born abroad or with two foreign-born parents.
| Municipality | Population 2024 | Population 2050 | Foreign background 2024 | Foreign background 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botkyrka | 96 400 | 124 000 | 46.2 % | 58.1 % |
| Södertälje | 105 100 | 128 400 | 41.8 % | 54.0 % |
| Malmö | 365 700 | 458 300 | 36.3 % | 47.6 % |
| Göteborg | 605 200 | 738 900 | 28.6 % | 37.9 % |
| Stockholm | 988 900 | 1 180 400 | 26.1 % | 34.7 % |
| Landskrona | 47 900 | 58 200 | 32.4 % | 44.1 % |
| Eskilstuna | 110 700 | 132 800 | 27.8 % | 38.4 % |
| Borlänge | 53 500 | 62 100 | 24.9 % | 34.0 % |
| Helsingborg | 153 900 | 189 000 | 26.2 % | 35.9 % |
| Örebro | 161 200 | 196 400 | 21.7 % | 30.1 % |
Violence and threats against public services
Share of employees who in the past 12 months have been subjected to violence or threats on duty, plus change 2015→2023.
| Occupation | Violence % | Threats % | Change 2015–2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare staff (emergency/care) | 18.4 % | 31.2 % | +38 % |
| Teachers (compulsory school) | 14.9 % | 24.7 % | +52 % |
| Emergency services | 8.1 % | 22.4 % | +91 % |
| Social services | 11.7 % | 28.9 % | +44 % |
| Public transport (bus drivers) | 9.6 % | 19.8 % | +61 % |
| Retail staff | 7.4 % | 17.5 % | +34 % |
FAQ
- What is the school segregation index?
- A measure from the Education Agency of how unevenly pupils with foreign background are distributed across schools. Index 0 = perfectly even, 100 = total segregation. Since 1998 the index has risen from 41 to 59.
- Is Statistics Sweden’s projection a forecast or a scenario?
- It is the main scenario in Statistics Sweden’s population projection (BFP 2024). It builds on assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration that the agency itself regards as reasonable. It is not a forecast of what ‘will happen’ but what follows if today’s trends hold.
- Why these municipalities?
- The selection is municipalities where the change is largest or most illustrative. The full Statistics Sweden dataset covers 290 municipalities — see the dataset page.