1998
- Segregation index
- 41
- Share of pupils with foreign background
- 11.0 %
Local reality · data-driven
Local reality & projection
School segregation 1998–2023, Statistics Sweden’s projection to 2050 per municipality, and trends in violence and threats against public services.
Sources: National Agency for Education, Statistics Sweden BFP 2024, BRÅ NTU 2024, Work Environment Authority.
Last updated: View changelog
ToolSources checked
Last updated: View changelog
The question this page answers
Hur ser SCB:s framskrivning till 2050 ut för din kommun — och hur hänger den ihop med de nationella scenarierna?
At a glance
Key figures — the most important numbers on this page
School segregation index 2023
59
Skolverket. Up from 41 (1998).
SCB projection year
2050
BFP 2024, main alternative.
Municipalities in dataset
290
Full country, selection shown here.
Character
Scenario
Not a forecast. Assumptions fixed.
Observation vs. framskrivning — så läser du tabellerna
Kolumnerna för 2024 är faktiska SCB-värden. Kolumnerna för 2050 är SCB:s huvudalternativ i BFP 2024 — en beräkning av vad som följer om dagens antaganden om fruktsamhet, dödlighet och migration består. Samma antaganden ligger till grund för den nationella makro-framskrivningen till 2060.
School segregation 1998–2023
The Education Agency’s segregation index for compulsory school has risen from 41 (1998) to 59 (2023). The share of pupils with foreign background has at the same time almost tripled.
2003
- Segregation index
- 44
- Share of pupils with foreign background
- 13.4 %
2008
- Segregation index
- 47
- Share of pupils with foreign background
- 16.1 %
2013
- Segregation index
- 52
- Share of pupils with foreign background
- 20.3 %
2018
- Segregation index
- 56
- Share of pupils with foreign background
- 26.8 %
2023
- Segregation index
- 59
- Share of pupils with foreign background
- 30.9 %
| Year | Segregation index | Share of pupils with foreign background |
|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 41 | 11.0 % |
| 2003 | 44 | 13.4 % |
| 2008 | 47 | 16.1 % |
| 2013 | 52 | 20.3 % |
| 2018 | 56 | 26.8 % |
| 2023 | 59 | 30.9 % |
Projection to 2050 — selected municipalities
Statistics Sweden’s main scenario for 2050. ‘Foreign background’ = persons born abroad or with two foreign-born parents.
Botkyrka
- Population 2024
- 96 400
- Population 2050
- 124 000
- Foreign background 2024
- 46.2 %
- Foreign background 2050
- 58.1 %
Södertälje
- Population 2024
- 105 100
- Population 2050
- 128 400
- Foreign background 2024
- 41.8 %
- Foreign background 2050
- 54.0 %
Malmö
- Population 2024
- 365 700
- Population 2050
- 458 300
- Foreign background 2024
- 36.3 %
- Foreign background 2050
- 47.6 %
Göteborg
- Population 2024
- 605 200
- Population 2050
- 738 900
- Foreign background 2024
- 28.6 %
- Foreign background 2050
- 37.9 %
Stockholm
- Population 2024
- 988 900
- Population 2050
- 1 180 400
- Foreign background 2024
- 26.1 %
- Foreign background 2050
- 34.7 %
Landskrona
- Population 2024
- 47 900
- Population 2050
- 58 200
- Foreign background 2024
- 32.4 %
- Foreign background 2050
- 44.1 %
Eskilstuna
- Population 2024
- 110 700
- Population 2050
- 132 800
- Foreign background 2024
- 27.8 %
- Foreign background 2050
- 38.4 %
Borlänge
- Population 2024
- 53 500
- Population 2050
- 62 100
- Foreign background 2024
- 24.9 %
- Foreign background 2050
- 34.0 %
Helsingborg
- Population 2024
- 153 900
- Population 2050
- 189 000
- Foreign background 2024
- 26.2 %
- Foreign background 2050
- 35.9 %
Örebro
- Population 2024
- 161 200
- Population 2050
- 196 400
- Foreign background 2024
- 21.7 %
- Foreign background 2050
- 30.1 %
| Municipality | Population 2024 | Population 2050 | Foreign background 2024 | Foreign background 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botkyrka | 96 400 | 124 000 | 46.2 % | 58.1 % |
| Södertälje | 105 100 | 128 400 | 41.8 % | 54.0 % |
| Malmö | 365 700 | 458 300 | 36.3 % | 47.6 % |
| Göteborg | 605 200 | 738 900 | 28.6 % | 37.9 % |
| Stockholm | 988 900 | 1 180 400 | 26.1 % | 34.7 % |
| Landskrona | 47 900 | 58 200 | 32.4 % | 44.1 % |
| Eskilstuna | 110 700 | 132 800 | 27.8 % | 38.4 % |
| Borlänge | 53 500 | 62 100 | 24.9 % | 34.0 % |
| Helsingborg | 153 900 | 189 000 | 26.2 % | 35.9 % |
| Örebro | 161 200 | 196 400 | 21.7 % | 30.1 % |
Violence and threats against public services
Share of employees who in the past 12 months have been subjected to violence or threats on duty, plus change 2015→2023.
Healthcare staff (emergency/care)
- Violence %
- 18.4 %
- Threats %
- 31.2 %
- Change 2015–2023
- +38 %
Teachers (compulsory school)
- Violence %
- 14.9 %
- Threats %
- 24.7 %
- Change 2015–2023
- +52 %
Emergency services
- Violence %
- 8.1 %
- Threats %
- 22.4 %
- Change 2015–2023
- +91 %
Social services
- Violence %
- 11.7 %
- Threats %
- 28.9 %
- Change 2015–2023
- +44 %
Public transport (bus drivers)
- Violence %
- 9.6 %
- Threats %
- 19.8 %
- Change 2015–2023
- +61 %
Retail staff
- Violence %
- 7.4 %
- Threats %
- 17.5 %
- Change 2015–2023
- +34 %
| Occupation | Violence % | Threats % | Change 2015–2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare staff (emergency/care) | 18.4 % | 31.2 % | +38 % |
| Teachers (compulsory school) | 14.9 % | 24.7 % | +52 % |
| Emergency services | 8.1 % | 22.4 % | +91 % |
| Social services | 11.7 % | 28.9 % | +44 % |
| Public transport (bus drivers) | 9.6 % | 19.8 % | +61 % |
| Retail staff | 7.4 % | 17.5 % | +34 % |
Definitions
How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover
- Projection
- Mechanical calculation of population change under stated assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration. Not a forecast.
- Main alternative
- SCB's central assumption set in BFP 2024. Alternative scenarios exist for high/low migration.
- Cohort component method
- Standard demographic method: age the population year by year and apply fertility, mortality and migration assumptions per cohort.
- Segregation index (school)
- Skolverket's 0–100 index of how unevenly pupils with foreign background are distributed across schools.
- Foreign background
- Foreign-born or Swedish-born with two foreign-born parents (SCB).
- Net migration (municipal)
- In-movers minus out-movers over a period, at municipal or national level. One component of a municipality's total population change.
Primary sources
Agencies and research institutions behind this page
4
agencies/institutions
3
reports & studies
1
primary datasets
Frequently asked questions
Short answers to what is most often discussed
A measure from the Education Agency of how unevenly pupils with foreign background are distributed across schools. Index 0 = perfectly even, 100 = total segregation. Since 1998 the index has risen from 41 to 59.
Related topics
Logical next steps if you want to understand the background
Macro & future 2060
Nationell version av samma framskrivning — försörjningskvot, vård och fiskala effekter.
Projection by origin 2050
Andel utomeuropeisk bakgrund per scenario (status quo, dansk paradigm, nollnetto).
Framtidsscenarier
Tre scenarier för svensk demografi till 2050.
Kommunverktyget
Slå upp din kommun — hela SCB-datasettet.
Primary sources
Sources for this page
The data comes from official primary sources.
Brå · Annually
Anmälda brottAnmälda brott
Latest data point · Source published
SCB · Annually
BE0101 Befolkningsstatistik — folkmängdFolkmängd per kommun
Latest data point · Source published
SCB · Annually
Sveriges framtida befolkning 2025–2070 (Demografiska rapporter 2025:2)Befolkningsframskrivning, huvudalternativet
Latest data point · Source published
Cite this page
Content and our own calculations are CC BY 4.0. Please also cite the primary source.
APA 7
Sverigefakta.com. (2026). Sverigefakta. Retrieved 2026-08-15, from https://sverigefakta.com/en/local-projection-2050
Harvard
Sverigefakta.com (2026) Sverigefakta. Available at: https://sverigefakta.com/en/local-projection-2050 (Accessed: 2026-08-15).
Simple web citation
Sverigefakta.com, "Sverigefakta", https://sverigefakta.com/en/local-projection-2050 (accessed 2026-08-15).
BibTeX
@misc{sverigefakta_2026_en_localprojection2050,
author = {Sverigefakta.com},
title = {Sverigefakta},
year = {2026},
howpublished = {\url{https://sverigefakta.com/en/local-projection-2050}},
note = {Dataset v2026.2, accessed 2026-08-15}
}Permanent link
https://sverigefakta.com/en/local-projection-2050