What does immigration cost — and why?
We start with the big picture, then go to what actually drives the outcome: employment. From there we follow the money over time — second generation, lifetime costs, and how it ripples into the business climate and housing market.
Overview
Cost of immigration
The fiscal whole. NIER (Special Study 117, 2025) and ESO 2024 — the net result and the assumptions behind it.
Read the chapter — Cost of immigrationWork decides
The single most important variable. The employment gap between native- and foreign-born explains almost the entire cost — not origin itself.
Read the chapter — Work decidesWork & benefits — time series
Employment split by native/foreign-born, households on income support and total benefits paid. SCB AKU and Socialstyrelsen — the raw data behind the chapter.
Read the chapter — Work & benefits — time seriesTax burden
41.4% of GDP in 2024 — eighth highest in the OECD, seven points above the average. What do we get for the money? Sources: OECD, Ekonomifakta.
Read the chapter — Tax burdenEnergy & electricity
SE1–SE4, the north/south gap and the 2022 price peak. Closed reactors, EU gas, weather — many causes, no simple conclusion.
Read the chapter — Energy & electricityBy residence permit
Labour, family, refugee, student — four very different economic outcomes. Why averaged totals hide more than they show.
Read the chapter — By residence permitSecond generation
Does the outcome converge over generations? SCB data on education, employment and income for children of foreign-born.
Read the chapter — Second generationLong-term welfare costs
Pensions, healthcare, elderly care over the life cycle. When costs arise and who bears them.
Read the chapter — Long-term welfare costsLifecycle: 74,000 SEK/year
How costs distribute across a lifetime — childhood, working age, retirement. Breakdown of net contribution by age interval.
Read the chapter — Lifecycle: 74,000 SEK/yearCohorts over time
Long-term costs per immigration cohort — how outcomes differ between groups arriving under different periods and rules.
Read the chapter — Cohorts over timeBusiness & talent flight
Outflow of highly educated and entrepreneurs. What Tillväxtanalys and Migration Agency emigration data show.
Read the chapter — Business & talent flightProperty prices
How population pressure and housing shortages translate into prices and rents — and where the effect is largest.
Read the chapter — Property pricesMunicipal reality
What it means in the municipal budget — social services, schools, income support. NIER model by immigration reason.
Read the chapter — Municipal realityMunicipal — flat rate vs actual cost
State flat-rate compensation rarely covers the full bill. Income support, SFI, schools and social services per Riksrevisionen, Statskontoret and SKR.
Read the chapter — Municipal — flat rate vs actual costScenarios — adjust assumptions
Turn the dials on employment, volume and composition yourself. See how the public economy responds to different assumptions.
Read the chapter — Scenarios — adjust assumptionsSida & foreign aid
Review of UO7 (~56 bn SEK). Volume, top recipients, deductions and critique from EBA, Riksrevisionen and OECD DAC.
Read the chapter — Sida & foreign aid