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What happened to Sweden?

Business climate

Businesses and talent flight

Sweden's business climate has long been part of the country's brand. When insecurity, long recruitment lead times and a growing criminal economy hit companies' everyday operations, that brand changes — fast.

Companies report it themselves — several independent surveys

Companies subjected to crime in the past year (~120,000 companies)(Confederation of Swedish Enterprise — Crime Barometer 2024/2025)

Share
36 %
Source and year
Nationwide, 2024/25

Affected by 'black competition' (criminally operating competitors)(Stockholm Chamber of Commerce, cited in Riksdag interpellation 2024/25:516)

Share
27 %
Source and year
1,500 companies Sthlm/Uppsala

Own growth already held back by the criminal economy(Riksdag interpellation 2024/25:516)

Share
17 %
Source and year
one in six, 2024/25

Refrain from investments due to concern about crime(Riksdag interpellation 2024/25:516)

Share
10 %
Source and year
one in ten, 2024/25

Retailers subjected to crime, Q2 2026 (+3 percentage points vs Q1)(Swedish Trade Federation — Security Barometer Q2 2026)

Share
49 %
Source and year
July 2026

Företagarna members subjected to threats/extortion in the past 5 years (~11,000 companies)(Företagarna, via DI/TN 2026)

Share
9 %
Source and year
June 2026

Business owners in disadvantaged areas with worsened finances due to crime(Stockholm Chamber of Commerce — Crime Scene Stockholm (2016))

Share
25 %
Source and year
one in four, 2016

Companies in disadvantaged areas considering relocating/closing down(Stockholm Chamber of Commerce — Crime Scene Stockholm (2016))

Share
10 %
Source and year
one in ten, 2016

Recruitment difficulties (general skills shortage, all causes)(Confederation of Swedish Enterprise — Recruitment Survey 2025/2026)

Share
≈ 70 %
Source and year
seven in ten, 2025/26

Note: the recruitment figure (70 %) measures general skills shortage — not specifically insecurity-related recruitment. The two measures are often conflated in the debate but refer to different things.

One in four companies in the Stockholm/Uppsala region has been hit by black competition from criminally operating firms, one in six says growth has already been held back and one in ten refrains from investments.

— Riksdag interpellation 2024/25:516 (paraphrasing the Chamber of Commerce survey)

From individual crimes to a structural competition issue

Research in recent years has shifted the perspective. The Stockholm Chamber of Commerce report Criminal entrepreneurs (Amir Rostami & Hernan Mondani, January 2024) describes how organised crime has found the business sector to be its "cash cow": companies are milked for money through extortion and taken over as platforms for criminal activity — corporate entities, banking services and F-tax registrations become tools for money laundering, tax crime and welfare fraud.

Ratio – the Swedish business research institute adds to the picture in the report From the Nordic gold to the Swedish condition (economist Anna Thoursie, 17 October 2024). It maps how criminal firms distort markets with artificially low prices financed by criminal activity — pushing lawful competitors out of sectors such as construction, cleaning, restaurants and transport. That is the mechanism the 27 % figure above ("black competition") tries to capture.

An ongoing court case at Lund District Court in 2026 — where 14 people stand charged with having extorted a business owner in Skåne of 12–14 million kronor over time with reference to criminal networks — illustrates the phenomenon concretely. The case has not yet been decided and is mentioned here only as an example of what the Chamber of Commerce and Ratio describe in aggregate form.

The recruitment problem — two sides

The first problem is well known and large: around seven in ten companies report recruitment difficulties in the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise's Recruitment Survey 2025/2026. This concerns general skills shortages — technology, healthcare, construction — and not specifically insecurity. At the same time, the National Audit Office's 2023 review shows that Swedish establishment measures deliver jobs only after an average of 7 years for the refugee group, which makes it hard to cover recruitment needs via new arrivals in the short term.

The second problem is less discussed but more geographically concentrated: companies in and near vulnerable areas say they actively avoid placing expensive machinery, valuable inventory or foreign staff there. A growing part of the metropolitan economy becomes "geographically blocked".

International comparison

The World Bank's Enterprise Surveys from 2015 found that 40 % of Swedish companies had been affected by crime, against 25 % in the OECD average, and that crime ranked as the fifth largest obstacle to doing business in Sweden. (Source: World Bank Enterprise Surveys 2015, cited in Stockholm Chamber of Commerce 2016:2.) The newer Swedish surveys above point in the same direction — but with ten more years of data and a clearer link to organised crime as a structural competition factor.

Sources

Read the full investigation of how Sweden has changed.

Back to the overview →

The question this page answers

How are Swedish businesses and the economy affected by skills shortages, international competition for talent, and the emigration of qualified people and entrepreneurs?

At a glance

Key figures — the most important numbers on this page

Firms reporting recruitment difficulties

≈ 70 %

Confederation of Swedish Enterprise — Recruitment Survey 2024. Share that failed at least one recruitment in the past six months. Employer-organisation survey data, not register data.

Firms that abstained from hiring due to skills shortage

~ 100,000

Swedish Public Employment Service — Where are the jobs? 2024. Rough estimate from employer interviews; reported as order of magnitude, not an exact figure.

Workplaces reporting recruitment problems

≈ 42 %

Statistics Sweden Labour Market Tendency Survey 2024 (occupational groups with severe shortage of new graduates). Register-based sample survey of employers.

Labour immigrants (first permits 2024)

≈ 60,200

Swedish Migration Agency — residence permits for work in 2024, including seasonal work and EU/EEA families. Register data; not equal to net additions to the labour force.

People emigrating from Sweden 2024

≈ 51,300

Statistics Sweden — emigration 2024 (all ages, all citizenships). Register data via the population register. Captures departures, not skill level or reason for moving.

R&D spending as share of GDP

≈ 3.6 %

Statistics Sweden / Eurostat 2023. Among the highest in the EU. Includes firms, universities and the public sector; says nothing about innovation outcomes.

IMD World Talent Ranking 2024

Rank 8

IMD Business School — composite index (attraction, development, readiness). Sweden has been in the top 10 continuously since 2014. Survey- and register-based index.

Share of foreign-born researchers

≈ 32 %

Swedish Higher Education Authority — PhD students and doctorates 2023. Reflects Swedish R&D's dependence on international skills immigration.

What does the data show?

Objective observations — not interpretations

  • Recruitment problems are broad and long-standing: authorities (Public Employment Service, Statistics Sweden) and interest-group sources (Confederation of Swedish Enterprise, Association of Swedish Engineering Industries) consistently report that a majority of Swedish employers struggle to find the right skills. Short-term business cycles shift the picture at the margin, but structural shortages in health care, engineering, construction and IT have been stable since at least 2015.
  • 'Skills shortage' and 'labour shortage' are different things. A labour shortage means too few people. A skills shortage means the people who exist lack the right education, experience or certification. Sweden has a higher labour-force participation rate than the OECD average but weaker matching — a substantial share of the labour force does not have the qualifications the vacancies demand.
  • Emigration is large in absolute numbers but small in net terms. Sweden has both high emigration (~50,000/year) and high immigration (~90,000/year, 2024). Part of the emigration is return migration by people who once immigrated. Register data show the flow — not why people move or what skills they take with them.
  • 'Brain drain' in the strict sense (a net loss of highly educated persons) does not appear in official statistics. Statistics Sweden's register data on the education level of emigrants show that a large share have post-secondary education, but many highly educated persons also immigrate. The net effect on the Swedish human-capital stock is uncertain and depends on assumptions about who counts as 'highly qualified'.
  • Firms' reports of relocation due to insecurity or tax levels are largely survey-based. Register data (Statistics Sweden, the Tax Agency, the Companies Registration Office) show numbers of moves and company registrations, but not motives. Attributing an individual move to a single policy factor requires more than register data can carry.

Method note
The material on this page combines three types of source: (1) register data from Statistics Sweden, the Swedish Migration Agency, the Higher Education Authority and the Companies Registration Office, (2) sample surveys from the Public Employment Service and Statistics Sweden (e.g. the Labour Market Tendency Survey), (3) survey data from employer and business associations. Survey data is valuable because it captures employers' perception, but it is affected by wage-setting, working conditions and the business cycle, and cannot be equated with objective shortage. A vacancy is not automatically a 'shortage' — it may reflect insufficient wages, geography or skill requirements that do not match the education system. Emigration and return immigration are reported as separate flows. 'Talent flight' as a causal chain cannot be established from register data alone; it requires cohort studies and counter-factual scenarios.

Definitions

How the numbers are counted — and what they do not cover

Skills supply
Umbrella term for how the economy is supplied with properly educated and experienced labour — covering education, matching, labour immigration and skills development.
Skills shortage
A situation where employers cannot fill vacancies even though labour exists, because applicants lack the right education, experience or certification.
Labour shortage
A situation where the number of available persons in the labour force is too small in relation to demand, regardless of skill level.
Recruitment difficulty
Employers' own perception that a position is hard to fill. Measured via surveys (Confederation of Swedish Enterprise, Public Employment Service) and reflects perceived, not objectively proven, shortage.
Matching problem
The gap between the skills employers demand and the skills unemployed people have. A structural problem that is not solved by more jobs or more unemployed alone.
Human capital
Economic term for the value of people's combined knowledge, experience and skills. Built through education, work experience and skills development.
Brain drain
Net outflow of highly educated labour from a country. Requires measuring both emigration and immigration of highly educated persons — gross emigration alone is not enough.
Brain gain
Net inflow of highly educated labour. Sweden has historically had brain gain from the EU and third countries, particularly in technology, health care and research.
Highly qualified labour
Persons with at least three years of post-secondary education or equivalent experience. International definitions vary (OECD, EU Blue Card, ILO).
Knowledge-intensive activity
Industries where a high share of workers have post-secondary education — IT, life science, advanced manufacturing, research, finance.
Skills immigration
Labour immigration of persons with high education or specialist skills. Regulated in Sweden mainly through work permits (Migration Agency) and the EU Blue Card.
Labour immigration
Immigration where the ground for the residence permit is work. Includes both high- and low-skilled occupations. Registered by the Migration Agency.
Entrepreneurship
Starting and running a business. In Sweden mainly measured via new business formation (Tillväxtanalys, Companies Registration Office) and firm survival rates.
New business formation
Number of new firms registered each year. Reflects entrepreneurial willingness, but not quality, growth or survival.
Productivity
Value added per hour worked. Sweden's productivity growth has slowed since 2010 according to the National Institute of Economic Research — the causes are contested.
Innovation capacity
The economy's ability to convert research and ideas into products, services and processes. Measured, among others, in the European Innovation Scoreboard and the Global Innovation Index.
R&D (research and development)
Systematic work to increase the stock of knowledge. Sweden has among the OECD's highest R&D expenditures as a share of GDP (~3.6 %, 2023).
Employment rate
The share of the population aged 15–74 that is employed. Sweden has a high employment rate by international comparison but large differences between groups.
Labour force participation
The share of the working-age population that either works or actively looks for work. Distinct from the employment rate — the unemployed are included.
Emigration
Registered departure from Sweden, defined as deregistration from the population register. Different from 'moving abroad', which is harder to measure.
Return migration
People who previously immigrated and later emigrated, or who emigrated and then returned. A substantial part of Sweden's gross flows.
EU Blue Card
EU-wide residence and work permit for highly qualified labour from third countries. Requires post-secondary education and a salary threshold. Administered in Sweden by the Migration Agency.
Expert tax relief
Tax relief for foreign experts, researchers and key personnel: 25 % of the salary is tax-free for up to 7 years. Reviewed by the Taxation of Research Workers Board. Conditions were tightened in 2012 and eased again in 2024.
Employment gap
The difference in employment rate between groups (e.g. Swedish-born vs foreign-born, men vs women). Sweden has high overall employment but among the OECD's largest gaps between native- and foreign-born.

Primary sources

Agencies and research institutions behind this page

8

agencies/institutions

6

reports & studies

4

primary datasets

Frequently asked questions

Short answers to what is most often discussed

The term is used both colloquially and academically. Colloquially: that highly educated or successful people leave Sweden. Academically: a lasting net loss of human capital. Register data show gross flows — the net effect on the human-capital stock is harder to establish.

Related topics

Logical next steps if you want to understand the background

Sources for this page

The data comes from official primary sources.

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