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Crime · generation analysis

Crime outcomes per generation

BRÅ report 2021:9 is the first comprehensive suspect statistics in 25 years. It shows that over-representation persists — and in several categories increases — in the second generation. Data is presented alongside a detailed method section.

Sources: BRÅ 2021:9, Swedish Prison Service annual report 2024.

How we measureInterpreting BRÅ data →

Risk of suspicion per crime type

Reference (1.00) = native-born with two native-born parents, age-standardised.

Crime typeNative ref.1st gen all1st gen non-European2nd gen all2nd gen two foreign-born
All crime1.0×2.5×3.0×2.0×3.2×
Violent crime1.0×2.3×3.1×1.9×2.8×
Sex crime1.0×2.1×2.7×1.5×1.8×
Robbery1.0×4.1×5.6×3.8×5.7×
Theft crime1.0×2.9×3.5×2.1×3.3×
Drug offences1.0×1.7×2.0×1.6×2.4×

Population share vs share of suspects

BRÅ 2021:9: share of population 15+ compared to share of all suspects.

GroupShare of populationShare of suspects
Native-born, two native parents73 %45 %
Second generation (one or two foreign-born parents)11 %17 %
First generation (foreign-born)16 %38 %
How we measurePrison data →

Share of foreign citizens in prison

Prison Service annual report. Refers to the entire prison population, not only new intakes.

YearAndel utländska medborgare
201025 %
201428 %
201830 %
202031 %
202231 %
202432 %

Interpretation and limitations

  • Suspicion is not the same as conviction — roughly 30–35% of suspicions lead to prosecution (BRÅ).
  • Reporting propensity may vary between groups and areas.
  • BRÅ 2021:9 controls for age and sex but not socioeconomics — part of (but not all) the difference is explained by socioeconomics in BRÅ’s earlier analyses.
  • Prison data refers to citizenship, not origin — foreign citizens with Swedish background and vice versa occur.
  • BRÅ paused suspect statistics 1996–2021 — no continuous time series over 25 years is available.

Primary sources