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Crime · generation analysis

Crime outcomes per generation

BRÅ report 2021:9 is the first comprehensive suspect statistics in 25 years. It shows that over-representation persists — and in several categories increases — in the second generation. Data is presented alongside a detailed method section.

Sources: BRÅ 2021:9, Swedish Prison Service annual report 2024.

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Risk of suspicion per crime type

Reference (1.00) = native-born with two native-born parents, age-standardised.

All crime

Native ref.
1.0×
1st gen all
2.5×
1st gen non-European
3.0×
2nd gen all
2.0×
2nd gen two foreign-born
3.2×

Violent crime

Native ref.
1.0×
1st gen all
2.3×
1st gen non-European
3.1×
2nd gen all
1.9×
2nd gen two foreign-born
2.8×

Sex crime

Native ref.
1.0×
1st gen all
2.1×
1st gen non-European
2.7×
2nd gen all
1.5×
2nd gen two foreign-born
1.8×

Robbery

Native ref.
1.0×
1st gen all
4.1×
1st gen non-European
5.6×
2nd gen all
3.8×
2nd gen two foreign-born
5.7×

Theft crime

Native ref.
1.0×
1st gen all
2.9×
1st gen non-European
3.5×
2nd gen all
2.1×
2nd gen two foreign-born
3.3×

Drug offences

Native ref.
1.0×
1st gen all
1.7×
1st gen non-European
2.0×
2nd gen all
1.6×
2nd gen two foreign-born
2.4×

Population share vs share of suspects

BRÅ 2021:9: share of population 15+ compared to share of all suspects.

Native-born, two native parents

Share of population
73 %
Share of suspects
45 %

Second generation (one or two foreign-born parents)

Share of population
11 %
Share of suspects
17 %

First generation (foreign-born)

Share of population
16 %
Share of suspects
38 %
How we measurePrison data

Share of foreign citizens in prison

Prison Service annual report. Refers to the entire prison population, not only new intakes.

2010

Andel utländska medborgare
25 %

2014

Andel utländska medborgare
28 %

2018

Andel utländska medborgare
30 %

2020

Andel utländska medborgare
31 %

2022

Andel utländska medborgare
31 %

2024

Andel utländska medborgare
32 %

Interpretation and limitations

  • Suspicion is not the same as conviction — roughly 30–35% of suspicions lead to prosecution (BRÅ).
  • Reporting propensity may vary between groups and areas.
  • BRÅ 2021:9 controls for age and sex but not socioeconomics — part of (but not all) the difference is explained by socioeconomics in BRÅ’s earlier analyses.
  • Prison data refers to citizenship, not origin — foreign citizens with Swedish background and vice versa occur.
  • BRÅ paused suspect statistics 1996–2021 — no continuous time series over 25 years is available.

Primary sources